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<div class="moz-cite-prefix">On 5/29/25 9:24 AM, glen wrote:<br>
</div>
<blockquote type="cite"
cite="mid:a35f65ad-ff2b-45a4-9d7b-8e551044388d@gmail.com">Why
isn't Lorenz in there somewhere? Seems like an obvious candidate.
<br>
</blockquote>
<p><em data-start="1038" data-end="1154">“When the present
determines the future, but the approximate present does not
approximately determine the future.”</em><br data-start="1154"
data-end="1157">
— Edward Lorenz, <em data-start="1176" data-end="1198">The
Essence of Chaos</em> (1993)</p>
<p>What George says when "reminded" of Lorenz:<br>
</p>
<ul data-start="2362" data-end="2748">
<li data-start="2362" data-end="2555">
<p data-start="2364" data-end="2555"><strong data-start="2364"
data-end="2395">Edward Lorenz (1963 onward)</strong> may be
the <em data-start="2407" data-end="2436">first person to
demonstrate</em> in precise mathematical terms a <strong
data-start="2469" data-end="2531">deterministic system whose
behavior could not be prestated</strong> beyond a short
horizon.</p>
</li>
<li data-start="2556" data-end="2748">
<p data-start="2558" data-end="2748">He <em data-start="2561"
data-end="2570">did not</em> use the phrase <strong
data-start="2586" data-end="2626">“deterministic but not
prestateable”</strong>, but <strong data-start="2632"
data-end="2662">his work embodies it fully</strong>, and
later chaos theorists and philosophers often retroactively
describe it that way.</p>
</li>
</ul>
<hr data-start="2750" data-end="2753">
<p data-start="2755" data-end="2905" data-is-last-node=""
data-is-only-node="">and here is George's (I don't call GPT
George, but for continuity with Nick, et al I do here) response:</p>
<p data-start="2755" data-end="2905" data-is-last-node=""
data-is-only-node="">but first for brevity, I cherry picked from
below and I like the help given in my nitpickery style:</p>
<ul data-start="2348" data-end="2485">
<li data-start="2348" data-end="2387">
<p data-start="2350" data-end="2387"><i>“Unpredictable”
(Lorenz-style, chaos)</i></p>
</li>
<li data-start="2388" data-end="2441">
<p data-start="2390" data-end="2441"><i>“Unprestatable”
(Kauffman-style, adjacent possible)</i></p>
</li>
<li data-start="2442" data-end="2485">
<p data-start="2444" data-end="2485"><i>“Undecidable”
(Turing/Gödel-style, logic)</i></p>
</li>
</ul>
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</p>
<p data-start="2755" data-end="2905" data-is-last-node=""
data-is-only-node=""></p>
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<div class="whitespace-pre-wrap">Me: can
you explain perhaps why you might have
omitted lorenz</div>
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<h6 class="sr-only">ChatGPT said:</h6>
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<p data-start="0" data-end="35">Yes — and
I appreciate the callout.</p>
<h3 data-start="37" data-end="87">Why
Lorenz Might Have Been Omitted
(Initially)</h3>
<p data-start="89" data-end="190">There
are a few reasons, mostly contextual and
framing-based, not due to oversight of
his importance:</p>
<hr data-start="192" data-end="195">
<h3 data-start="197" data-end="234">1. <strong
data-start="204" data-end="234">Interpretive
Framing Bias:</strong></h3>
<p data-start="235" data-end="339">Your
original phrase, <strong
data-start="257" data-end="298">“deterministic
but not prestateable,”</strong>
carries a flavor that strongly suggests:</p>
<ul data-start="340" data-end="544">
<li data-start="340" data-end="412">
<p data-start="342" data-end="412"><strong
data-start="342" data-end="372">Logical
/ epistemic limits</strong> (e.g.,
undecidability, incompleteness),</p>
</li>
<li data-start="413" data-end="471">
<p data-start="415" data-end="471"><strong
data-start="415" data-end="444">Unenumerable
state spaces</strong> (as in
Kauffman or Rosen),</p>
</li>
<li data-start="472" data-end="544">
<p data-start="474" data-end="544"><strong
data-start="474" data-end="492">Open-endedness</strong>
and <strong data-start="497"
data-end="510">emergence</strong>
rather than sensitivity or chaos.</p>
</li>
</ul>
<p data-start="546" data-end="723">So I
initially prioritized thinkers who made
<strong data-start="591" data-end="672">explicit
claims about the <em data-start="619"
data-end="653">unlistability or
uncomputability</em> of future
states</strong>, rather than the <strong
data-start="690" data-end="722">intractability
of prediction</strong>.</p>
<hr data-start="725" data-end="728">
<h3 data-start="730" data-end="762">2. <strong
data-start="737" data-end="762">Domain-Specific
Bias:</strong></h3>
<p data-start="763" data-end="974">Lorenz
worked in <strong data-start="780"
data-end="807">physics and meteorology</strong>,
and his contributions, while
foundational to the idea of
unpredictability, are <strong
data-start="888" data-end="922">framed
in terms of instability</strong>, not
<strong data-start="928" data-end="973">unprestatability
due to logical structure</strong>.</p>
<p data-start="976" data-end="984">That
is:</p>
<ul data-start="985" data-end="1139">
<li data-start="985" data-end="1060">
<p data-start="987" data-end="1060">Lorenz’s
system <em data-start="1003"
data-end="1007">is</em>
prestatable in theory (you can write
the equations),</p>
</li>
<li data-start="1061" data-end="1139">
<p data-start="1063" data-end="1139">But
<strong data-start="1067"
data-end="1082">in practice</strong>,
you can’t predict far ahead without
infinite precision.</p>
</li>
</ul>
<p data-start="1141" data-end="1171">Compare
to Kauffman, who says:</p>
<blockquote data-start="1172"
data-end="1242">
<p data-start="1174" data-end="1242">“We
<em data-start="1178" data-end="1202">cannot
even write down</em> the space of
possibilities in advance.”</p>
</blockquote>
<p data-start="1244" data-end="1275">So
the distinction was between:</p>
<div class="_tableContainer_16hzy_1">
<div tabindex="-1"
class="_tableWrapper_16hzy_14 group flex w-fit flex-col-reverse">
<table data-start="1276"
data-end="1723"
class="w-fit min-w-(--thread-content-width)">
<thead data-start="1276"
data-end="1386"><tr
data-start="1276"
data-end="1386">
<th data-start="1276"
data-end="1307"
data-col-size="sm"><strong
data-start="1278"
data-end="1297">Type of
barrier</strong></th>
<th data-start="1307"
data-end="1347"
data-col-size="sm"><strong
data-start="1309"
data-end="1319">Lorenz</strong></th>
<th data-start="1347"
data-end="1386"
data-col-size="sm"><strong
data-start="1349"
data-end="1367">Kauffman/Rosen</strong></th>
</tr>
</thead><tbody data-start="1498"
data-end="1723">
<tr data-start="1498"
data-end="1608">
<td data-start="1498"
data-end="1528"
data-col-size="sm">Measurement
precision limit</td>
<td data-start="1528"
data-end="1569"
data-col-size="sm">Yes</td>
<td data-col-size="sm"
data-start="1569"
data-end="1608">Sometimes</td>
</tr>
<tr data-start="1609"
data-end="1723">
<td data-start="1609"
data-end="1642"
data-col-size="sm">Computational
or logical limit</td>
<td data-col-size="sm"
data-start="1642"
data-end="1681">No (the system
is computable)</td>
<td data-col-size="sm"
data-start="1681"
data-end="1723">Yes (the phase
space isn’t enumerable)</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
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<hr data-start="1725" data-end="1728">
<h3 data-start="1730" data-end="1766">3. <strong
data-start="1737" data-end="1766">Terminological
Exactness:</strong></h3>
<p data-start="1767" data-end="1927">Lorenz
didn't use the language of <strong
data-start="1801" data-end="1820">prestateability</strong>.
That’s a term more common in
philosophical biology and complexity
theory (Kauffman, Rosen, Pattee, etc.).</p>
<p data-start="1929" data-end="2014">So I
likely indexed on <strong
data-start="1952" data-end="1980">terminological
proximity</strong> rather than <strong
data-start="1993" data-end="2013">semantic
essence</strong>.</p>
<hr data-start="2016" data-end="2019">
<h3 data-start="2021" data-end="2062">4. <strong
data-start="2028" data-end="2062">Scholarly
Echo Chamber Effect:</strong></h3>
<p data-start="2063" data-end="2298">The
phrase <em data-start="2074"
data-end="2112">“deterministic but not
prestateable”</em> has circulated more
explicitly in Kauffman and Rosen’s
circles — particularly in systems
biology, philosophy of complexity, and
theoretical evolution — than in
physics/chaos literature.</p>
<p data-start="2300" data-end="2347">There’s
a subtle linguistic difference between:</p>
<ul data-start="2348" data-end="2485">
<li data-start="2348" data-end="2387">
<p data-start="2350" data-end="2387">“Unpredictable”
(Lorenz-style, chaos)</p>
</li>
<li data-start="2388" data-end="2441">
<p data-start="2390" data-end="2441">“Unprestatable”
(Kauffman-style, adjacent possible)</p>
</li>
<li data-start="2442" data-end="2485">
<p data-start="2444" data-end="2485">“Undecidable”
(Turing/Gödel-style, logic)</p>
</li>
</ul>
<hr data-start="2487" data-end="2490">
<h3 data-start="2492" data-end="2523">🧭
Retrospective Correction</h3>
<p data-start="2524" data-end="2781">You
were right to bring Lorenz in. His work
<strong data-start="2568"
data-end="2589">embodies the idea</strong>
in a foundational and mathematically
demonstrable way. He simply spoke from a
different idiom — one of <strong
data-start="2693" data-end="2718">dynamical
instability</strong> rather than <strong
data-start="2731" data-end="2780">ontological
or epistemological open-endedness</strong>.</p>
<p data-start="2783" data-end="2963">I
would now include him centrally, as the
<strong data-start="2825"
data-end="2902">first to <em
data-start="2836" data-end="2843">prove</em>
that deterministic systems can defy
practical prediction</strong>, even if
not logical prestateability in the
strictest sense.</p>
<hr data-start="2965" data-end="2968">
<p data-start="2970" data-end="3178"
data-is-last-node=""
data-is-only-node="">Would you like a
synthesis of Lorenz and Kauffman into a
unified framework of unpredictability
and unprestatability — perhaps
visualized through nested phase space,
strange attractors, and adjacent
possibles?</p>
</div>
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<blockquote type="cite"
cite="mid:a35f65ad-ff2b-45a4-9d7b-8e551044388d@gmail.com">
<br>
On 5/29/25 8:13 AM, steve smith wrote:
<br>
<blockquote type="cite">
<br>
<blockquote type="cite">< The interesting question is where
exactly does the deterministic system turn into something
nondeterministic, and how?>
<br>
<br>
It doesn’t. A deterministic system is a deterministic system.
<br>
<br>
</blockquote>
who might have first made the distinction : "deterministic but
not pre-stateable"?
<br>
<br>
George offered:
<br>
<br>
Year Thinker Conceptual Expression
<br>
1931 Kurt Gödel Incompleteness: truths not derivable
<br>
1936 Alan Turing Halting problem: uncomputable
predictions
<br>
1970s Heinz von Foerster Second-order cybernetics:
unknowability of future
<br>
1991 Robert Rosen Closure to efficient causation;
entailment limits
<br>
1993 Stuart Kauffman Adjacent possible; unprestatable
evolution
<br>
2005 Gregory Chaitin Incompressible but defined numbers
(e.g., Ω)
<br>
<br>
</blockquote>
</blockquote>
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