<div dir="ltr">I’ve always loved the Simon-Ehrlich bet story—two clever guys betting on the future of the planet. Ehrlich lost the bet, but the debate still runs circles today.<br><br><a href="https://ourworldindata.org/simon-ehrlich-bet">https://ourworldindata.org/simon-ehrlich-bet</a><br><br>This article nails it: over the long term, prices mostly go down, not up, as innovation kicks in. We don’t "run out" of resources—we get better at using them. Scarcity shifts, but human creativity shifts faster.<br><br>The Limits to Growth folks had good intentions, but the real limit seems to be how fast we can adapt and rethink. And so far, we’re doing okay—messy, uneven, but okay.<br><br>Turns out, betting against human ingenuity is the real risky business.</div><br><div class="gmail_quote gmail_quote_container"><div dir="ltr" class="gmail_attr">On Fri, 30 May 2025 at 21:51, steve smith <<a href="mailto:sasmyth@swcp.com">sasmyth@swcp.com</a>> wrote:<br></div><blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0px 0px 0px 0.8ex;border-left:1px solid rgb(204,204,204);padding-left:1ex"><u></u>
<div>
<p>REC - <br>
</p>
<p>Very timely... I did a deep dive/revisit (also met the seminal
work in college in the 70s) into Limits to Growth and World3
before the Stockholm workshop on Climate (and other existential
threats) Complexity Merle wrangled in 2019.... and was both
impressed and disappointed. Rockstrom and folks were located
right across the water from us where we met but to my knowledge
didn't engage... their work was very complementary but did not
feel as relevant to me then as it does now.</p>
<p>In the following interview, I felt he began to address many of
the things I (previously) felt were lacking in their framework
previoiusly. It was there all the time I'm sure, I just didn't
see it and I think they were not ready to talk as broadly of
implications 5 years ago as they are now?<br>
</p>
<blockquote>
<p><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i6_3mOgvrN4" target="_blank">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i6_3mOgvrN4</a></p>
</blockquote>
<p>Did anyone notice the swiss village inundated by debris and
meltwater from the glacier collapse uphill? Signs of the times
or "business as usual"?</p>
<p>- SAS<br>
</p>
<div>On 5/30/25 12:16 PM, Roger Critchlow
wrote:<br>
</div>
<blockquote type="cite">
<div dir="ltr"><a href="https://thenextwavefutures.wordpress.com/2025/05/20/limits-to-growth-was-right-about-overshoot-and-collapse-new-data/" target="_blank">https://thenextwavefutures.wordpress.com/2025/05/20/limits-to-growth-was-right-about-overshoot-and-collapse-new-data/</a>
<div><br>
</div>
<div>I remember the Limits to Growth from my freshman year in
college. Now Hackernews links to the above in which some
people argue that we've achieved the predicted overshoot for
the business as usual scenario and the subsequent collapse
begins now. Enjoy the peak of human technological
development.</div>
<div><br>
</div>
<div>-- rec --</div>
<div><br>
</div>
</div>
<br>
<fieldset></fieldset>
<pre>.- .-.. .-.. / ..-. --- --- - . .-. ... / .- .-. . / .-- .-. --- -. --. / ... --- -- . / .- .-. . / ..- ... . ..-. ..- .-..
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Fridays 9a-12p Friday St. Johns Cafe / Thursdays 9a-12p Zoom <a href="https://bit.ly/virtualfriam" target="_blank">https://bit.ly/virtualfriam</a>
to (un)subscribe <a href="http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com" target="_blank">http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com</a>
FRIAM-COMIC <a href="http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/</a>
archives: 5/2017 thru present <a href="https://redfish.com/pipermail/friam_redfish.com/" target="_blank">https://redfish.com/pipermail/friam_redfish.com/</a>
1/2003 thru 6/2021 <a href="http://friam.383.s1.nabble.com/" target="_blank">http://friam.383.s1.nabble.com/</a>
</pre>
</blockquote>
</div>
.- .-.. .-.. / ..-. --- --- - . .-. ... / .- .-. . / .-- .-. --- -. --. / ... --- -- . / .- .-. . / ..- ... . ..-. ..- .-..<br>
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv<br>
Fridays 9a-12p Friday St. Johns Cafe / Thursdays 9a-12p Zoom <a href="https://bit.ly/virtualfriam" rel="noreferrer" target="_blank">https://bit.ly/virtualfriam</a><br>
to (un)subscribe <a href="http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com" rel="noreferrer" target="_blank">http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com</a><br>
FRIAM-COMIC <a href="http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/" rel="noreferrer" target="_blank">http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/</a><br>
archives: 5/2017 thru present <a href="https://redfish.com/pipermail/friam_redfish.com/" rel="noreferrer" target="_blank">https://redfish.com/pipermail/friam_redfish.com/</a><br>
1/2003 thru 6/2021 <a href="http://friam.383.s1.nabble.com/" rel="noreferrer" target="_blank">http://friam.383.s1.nabble.com/</a><br>
</blockquote></div>