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<p>As we know, I'm of the school of thought that (techno) Utopian
and Dystopian visions are two sides of the same coin:</p>
<p><peak-oil></p>
<blockquote>
<p>I think peak oil (fossil-fuels) is a real thing, now matter how
much we slide the timescale with innovative ways to suck harder
or deeper and burn it more efficiently... and in particular the
side-effect of saturating the atmo(bio)sphere with carbon
particulates, polymers (e.g. microplastics) and molecules (COn,
CH4, etc) and the myriad attendant not-very-healthy-to-most-life
chloroflouros and Nitrous-this-n-thats and ... on and on. We
(in our technofuturist way) pretend we have maxwell demons or
geni-rebottlers or pandora-box-refillers on the drawing boards
which will do their work faster than entropy and in the
particular techno-industrial concentrated-energy-fueled version
thereof. <br>
</p>
<p>Fossil fuels made us into an incredibly energy-hungry/wasteful
society... I'm a fan of Switzerland's (nominal) 2000W society
(aspiration), although the human *animal's* basal metabolic rate
is <100W avg and peaks at 200-300W (burst performance
athlete). The the nominal consumption for the western world is
EU (5k) and US (10k) of which a big part from the infrastructure
and other "hidden" sources like transport of food/goods across
the planet for our appetite and convenience. The "global
south" is considered to make it on 500-1500W. 8B humans at
"subsistence" would demand 8tW continuous and at US rates, 80tW
continuous. </p>
<p>I haven't resolved this against DaveW's numbers but I take his
to be order-of-magnitude accurate on principle. As we add
supersonic and orbital-vacation transport I suspect we might
jack that another 10X... not to (even) mention power-hungry
crypto/AI demands? GPT (ironic no?) helped me guestimate
40w/user (engaged) continuous *currently*. A significant
fraction of a carbon-frugal "budget" and a measurable plus-up on
our gluttonous US (and even EU or CH) versions? <br>
</p>
</blockquote>
<p></peak-oil></p>
<p><EV-enthusiasm><br>
</p>
<blockquote>
<p>I'm a big fan/early adopter (tinkerer really) of "electric
vehicles" and renewable energy, but the numbers just don't
work. I was hypermiling my Honda CRX (fit my oversized frame
like a slipper or roller skate) long before there were viable
production electrics or hybrids. I had the back half of a
donor CRX ready to receive the rear differential of a miata or
rx7 (same stance, similar suspension mounts) with a 90's
brushless DC motor as well as a pair of VW cabriolets (running
but one lame) as well for the same conception (early 2000s) when
I scored a year1/gen1 Honda Insight (and a friend spun the CRX
out in the rain)... so I gave up on my hypermiling (70mpg RT to
Los Alamos, power up, coast home) for thoughtful
Insight-driving. All three of these models were order 2k
lbs. Most vehicles are/were 3k-6klbs.</p>
<p>Along came the Chevy Volt (2011) and in 2016 I picked one up
which had been used up... or at least the hybrid battery (at
166k miles). A used (95k mile) battery and a lot of tech work
and it was back to full function. The VWs never broke 40mpg
hypermiling, the CRX clocked 70mpg in ideal conditions, the
Insight topped 50-55mpg with careful driving (hard to hypermile
a CVT), and with the PHEV nature of the volt I can still pull
>70mpg if I ignore the input from the grid. The old battery
is offering about 10kWh of capacity for a homestead scale PV I'm
assembling from $.10/W used solar panels mainly to buffer for
the PHEV charging. Unfortunately the replacement Volt battery
is finally getting lame and replacement is such a huge effort
this 15 year old vehicle will go the way of many other 200k
mile plus vehicles. I've backfilled with a low(er) mileage
2014 Ford C-Max PHEV with only about 10 miles (compared to
new-30 in the volt) PHEV which I'm getting roughly the same
effective MPG (still ignoring the grid input). I'm looking for
a Gen2 Volt which had 50mile EV-only range (otherwise very
similar to Gen1) as I might move *all* my semi-local miles to
Electric (and supply them with used PV staged through the
upcycled EV batteries?).</p>
<p>FWIW, the anti-EV stories about the extra weight yielding
accelerated brake/tire wear is specious in my experience. My
*driving habits* in an EV (or hypermiled conventional/hybrid)
obviate excess tire wear (no spinouts, no
uber-accelleration/braking) and even a thoughtless driver likely
gets more from regenerative braking than any excess weight
abuse... I also claim that being MPG/consumption attunes my
driving habits to fewer/shorter/slower trips. I have owned a
few gas-guzzling vehicles in my life, including one I commuted
too far in for a while... the 32 gallon tank convolved with
peaking gas prices and a 60 mile RT commute that year should
have warned me off... but instead I just closed my eyes and ran
my plastic through the card reader 1.5 times per week... my
housing cost differential paid the bill but without regard to
the planet. I did give over to a carpool in a 30mpg vehicle
(shared 3 ways) for a while which really beat the 15mpg 1-person
I was doing otherwise. I went through a LOT more tire rubber
and brake pads in that context than I ever did in years of
hybrid/EV ownership. Did I say specious? Or at least
apples-orangatans?<br>
</p>
</blockquote>
<p></EV-enthusiasm> <br>
</p>
<p><Alt/Transport ideation><br>
</p>
<blockquote>
<p>I also have my 750W (foldable) eBike which is (currently)
impractical to me (closest services 10 miles of 4 lane) for
anything but recreation/exercise and a 300W lower-body
exoskeleton, each of which has much better "mpg" in principle
(esp eBike) when hybridized with human calorie-to-kinetic
conversion. I've a friend (10 years my senior) whose
e-Recumbent-trike with similar specs is his primary mode of
utility transport (under 20 miles RT). <br>
</p>
<p>All that said, I don't think electromotifying 4-6klb hunks of
steel and glass with environmental control suitable for 0F-120F
comfort for 4+ people while traveling at 60+mph and making 0-60
accellerations in under 6 seconds is really a viable strategy
for the 8B folks on the planet we want to sell them to. Esp
with a useful lifetime of <15 years?(planned obselescence
aside?). Maybe robo-taxi/rideshare versions in the context of
(mostly) walkable cities (nod to JennyQ) and public transport
and general local/regionalism is (semi) viable. <br>
</p>
</blockquote>
<p></Alt-Transport ideation></p>
<p><Local/Regionalism><br>
</p>
<blockquote>
<p> I've got strawberry plants making me (from compost and
sunlight) fewer berries in a season than I just bought at the
grocery imported from MX for <$3 (on sale)... and my while I
wait for my 3-sister's plantings to produce a few months of
carbs/protein at-best the modern fossil-fuel/pollution global
marketplace offers me the same for probably several tens of
dollars? As a seed-saving, composter with a well (that could
be pumped by solar but isn't) my impact on planetary boundaries
could be nil to positive... but it is hard to scale this up even
for myself, much less proselytize and/or support my neighbors in
matching me. I cut Jeff Bezos off from my direct support (via
Amazon purchases) when he aligned himself with the other
TechBros aligning with the Orange Tyrant, so I may well have
reduced my manufacturing/transport appetite/consumption a little
(small amounts of that appetite moved to local traditional
store-forward versions as well as direct-mail purchases from
non-Amazon/big-box distributors).</p>
</blockquote>
<p></Local-Regionalism></p>
<p><TechnoUtopianism></p>
<blockquote>
<p>I am a reformed technoUtopian... I grew up on "good
old-fashioned future" science fiction (starting with scientific
romances from the early industrial age) and studied and
practiced my way into a science education and a technical
career/lifestyle and wanted to believe for the longest time that
we could always kick the can down the road a little
harder/smarter/further each time and/or just "drive faster".
And we are doing that somewhat effectively *still*, but in my
many decades I've got more time glancing in the rear-view mirror
to see the smoking wreckage behind us, as well as over the
horizon to see how many of the negative consequences of our
actions land on other folks who never came close to enjoying the
benefits of that "progress". I guess that means this erstwhile
libertarian has become a "self-loathing liberal".</p>
<p>Or a convert to the Buddhist ideal of "Skillful Means"?</p>
</blockquote>
<p></TechnoUtopianism><br>
</p>
<div class="moz-cite-prefix">On 6/1/25 10:10 AM, Marcus Daniels
wrote:<br>
</div>
<blockquote type="cite"
cite="mid:MN0PR11MB598580B9B914E03C88E0C412C563A@MN0PR11MB5985.namprd11.prod.outlook.com">
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt">I think you
are underestimating how much progress has been made with
batteries in recent years.<br>
California has large solar resources, and it is not unusual
that during the day the whole grid is powered by solar.
Here is from last week. Note the huge surge of battery
usage in the evening. Tens of gigawatts of generation
power are planned for offshore wind too. <br>
<br>
Generally, though, I agree that much of the planet is
completely addicted to oil, and there’s no technology that
will yet handle air travel. Hydrogen might work, but it
will take time. <br>
<br>
The way to break an addiction is to have the addict hit rock
bottom. <br>
<br>
There need to be some scary climate events. The prices for
energy need to increase before people change their ways.
Redirecting energy into AI is one way to bring that to
fruition. <br>
<br>
<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt"><img
style="width:5.8958in;height:2.4583in"
id="Picture_x0020_1"
src="cid:part1.wHyY11xp.4kQpo8KW@swcp.com"
alt="A chart of different colors
Description automatically generated" class="" width="566" height="236"></span><span
style="font-size:11.0pt"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<div
style="border:none;border-top:solid #B5C4DF 1.0pt;padding:3.0pt 0in 0in 0in">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:12.0pt"><b><span
style="font-size:12.0pt;color:black">From: </span></b><span
style="font-size:12.0pt;color:black">Friam
<a class="moz-txt-link-rfc2396E" href="mailto:friam-bounces@redfish.com"><friam-bounces@redfish.com></a> on behalf of Prof David
West <a class="moz-txt-link-rfc2396E" href="mailto:profwest@fastmail.fm"><profwest@fastmail.fm></a><br>
<b>Date: </b>Sunday, June 1, 2025 at 8:27 AM<br>
<b>To: </b><a class="moz-txt-link-abbreviated" href="mailto:friam@redfish.com">friam@redfish.com</a> <a class="moz-txt-link-rfc2396E" href="mailto:friam@redfish.com"><friam@redfish.com></a><br>
<b>Subject: </b>Re: [FRIAM] Limits to Growth<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span
style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif">Unfortunately,
it is almost certain that there will never be enough
'fossil fuel free power stations' to supply needed energy
for electric vehicles.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span
style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span
style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif">Data
centers, driven in large part by AI demands and
cryptocurrency will leave nothing left over.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span
style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span
style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif">Some
numbers:<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span
style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span
style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif">Three
Mile Island, which is being recommissioned to supply
power to a couple of Microsoft Data Centers, has a
capacity of 7 Terawatt hours(T/w/h) per year.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span
style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span
style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif">In
2022 data centers, globally, consumed 460 TWh, by 2026
this is estimated to be 1,000 Twh. By 2040 projected
demand is 2,000-3,000 TWh.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span
style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span
style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif">Crypto
adds 100-150 TWh in 2022, 200-300 in 2030, and 400-600 in
2040.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span
style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span
style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif">Nuclear
is unlikely to provide more than 25% of this demand.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span
style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span
style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif">Between
now and 2040, it will be necessary to build 100
TMI-capacity nuclear plants to supply that 25%.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span
style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span
style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif">If
solar is to supply the other 75%, it will require between
66,000 and 80,000 square miles of solar panels. (Don't
know how many batteries, but the number is not trivial.)<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span
style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span
style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif">Wind
power, for that 75%, will require 153,000 to 214,000
turbines, each requiring 50-60 acres of space beneath
them. (Also the problem of batteries.)<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span
style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span
style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif">It
takes 10-15 years to build a nuclear plant like TMI, have
no idea now many dollars.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span
style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span
style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif">Neither
solar nor wind, nor combined, can be installed fast enough
to meet this demand and, again, have no idea of cost.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span
style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span
style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif">Nothing
left over for cars, the lights in your home and office, or
to charge your phone: unless, of course we continue to
rely on oil (shale and fracking), natural gas, and coal.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span
style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span
style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif">davew<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span
style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span
style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span
style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span
style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt">On Sun,
Jun 1, 2025, at 6:24 AM, Pieter Steenekamp wrote:<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<blockquote style="margin-top:5.0pt;margin-bottom:5.0pt" id="qt">
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt">This is
why I’m so excited about electric vehicles—I feel like a
kid waiting for Christmas! Add clean fossil fuel free
power stations into the mix, and voilà: abundant clean
energy, no miracle inventions required. Just some clever
tech and a whole lot of charging cables!<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt">On
Sun, 1 Jun 2025 at 12:57, Jochen Fromm <<a
href="mailto:jofr@cas-group.net"
moz-do-not-send="true" class="moz-txt-link-freetext">jofr@cas-group.net</a>>
wrote:<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<blockquote
style="border:none;border-left:solid #CCCCCC 1.0pt;padding:0in 0in 0in 6.0pt;margin-left:4.8pt;margin-right:0in">
<div>
<p style="margin:0in"><span style="color:black">I
believe we all have a slighty distorted view because
we were all born long after industrialization has
started and have seen nothing but growth.
Industrialization started around 200 years ago in
Great Britain and spread shortly after to America
and Europe. First by exploiting coal and steam
engines, later by oil and petrol engines. Tanks,
warplanes, warships as well as normal cars, planes
and ships all consume oil.</span><o:p></o:p></p>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
</div>
<p style="margin:0in"><span style="color:black">Richard
Heinberg writes in his book "The End of Growth":
"with the fossil fuel revolution of the past century
and a half, we have seen economic growth at a speed
and scale unprecedented in all of human history. We
harnessed the energies of coal, oil, and natural gas
to build and operate cars, trucks, highways,
airports, airplanes, and electric grids - all the
esential features of modern industrial society.
Through the one-time-only process of extracting and
burning hundreds of millions of years worth of
chemically stored sunlight, we built what appeared
(for a brief, shining moment) to be a
perpetual-growth machine. We learned to take what
was in fact an extraordinary situation for granted.
It became normal [...] During the past 150 years,
expanding access to cheap and abundar fossil fuels
enabled rapid economic expansion at an average rate
of about three percent per year; economic planners
began to take this situain for granted. Financial
systems internalized the expectation of growth as a
promise of returns on investments."</span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p style="margin:0in"><span style="color:black"><a
href="https://richardheinberg.com/bookshelf/the-end-of-growth-book"
moz-do-not-send="true"
class="moz-txt-link-freetext">https://richardheinberg.com/bookshelf/the-end-of-growth-book</a></span><o:p></o:p></p>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
</div>
<p style="margin:0in"><span style="color:black">Heinberg
argues the time of cheap and abundant fossil fuels
has come to an end. There 1.5 billion cars in the
world which consume oil and produce CO2. Resources
are depleted while pollution and population have
reached all time highs. It is true that humans are
innovative and ingenious, especially in times of
scarcity, necessity and need, and we are able to
find replacements for depleted resources, but
Heinberg argues in his book "Peak Everything: that
"in a finite world, the number of possible
replacements is also finite". For example we were
able to replace the whale oil by petroleum, but
finding a replacement for petroleum is much harder.</span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p style="margin:0in"><span style="color:black"><a
href="https://richardheinberg.com/bookshelf/peak-everything"
moz-do-not-send="true"
class="moz-txt-link-freetext">https://richardheinberg.com/bookshelf/peak-everything</a></span><o:p></o:p></p>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
</div>
<p style="margin:0in"><span style="color:black">Without
oil no army would move, traffic would cease, no
container or cruise ship would be able to go
anywhere and therefore international trade and
tourism would stop. On the bright side no more
plastic and CO2 pollution either. </span><o:p></o:p></p>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
</div>
<p style="margin:0in"><span style="color:black">In his
book "End of Growth" Heinberg mentions "transition
towns" as a path towards a more sustainable society
and an economy which is not based on fossil-fuels.</span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p style="margin:0in"><span style="color:black"><a
href="https://donellameadows.org/archives/rob-hopkins-my-town-in-transition/"
moz-do-not-send="true"
class="moz-txt-link-freetext">https://donellameadows.org/archives/rob-hopkins-my-town-in-transition/</a></span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p style="margin:0in"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p style="margin:0in">French author Victor Hugo wrote
200 years ago that "the paradise of the rich is made
out of the hell of the poor". If rich people start to
realize this and help to find a way to a more
sustainable, livable society it would be a start.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p style="margin:0in"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt">-J.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span
style="font-size:11.0pt;color:black">--------
Original message --------<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span
style="font-size:11.0pt;color:black">From: Pieter
Steenekamp <<a
href="mailto:pieters@randcontrols.co.za"
moz-do-not-send="true"
class="moz-txt-link-freetext">pieters@randcontrols.co.za</a>><o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span
style="font-size:11.0pt;color:black">Date: 5/31/25
5:46 AM (GMT+01:00)<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span
style="font-size:11.0pt;color:black">To: The
Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group
<<a href="mailto:friam@redfish.com"
moz-do-not-send="true"
class="moz-txt-link-freetext">friam@redfish.com</a>><o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span
style="font-size:11.0pt;color:black">Subject: Re:
[FRIAM] Limits to Growth<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span
style="font-size:11.0pt;color:black"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt">I’ve
always loved the Simon-Ehrlich bet story—two
clever guys betting on the future of the planet.
Ehrlich lost the bet, but the debate still runs
circles today.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt"><a
href="https://ourworldindata.org/simon-ehrlich-bet"
moz-do-not-send="true"
class="moz-txt-link-freetext">https://ourworldindata.org/simon-ehrlich-bet</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt">This
article nails it: over the long term, prices
mostly go down, not up, as innovation kicks in.
We don’t "run out" of resources—we get better at
using them. Scarcity shifts, but human
creativity shifts faster.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt">The
Limits to Growth folks had good intentions, but
the real limit seems to be how fast we can adapt
and rethink. And so far, we’re doing okay—messy,
uneven, but okay.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt">Turns
out, betting against human ingenuity is the real
risky business.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt">On
Fri, 30 May 2025 at 21:51, steve smith <<a
href="mailto:sasmyth@swcp.com"
moz-do-not-send="true"
class="moz-txt-link-freetext">sasmyth@swcp.com</a>>
wrote:<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<blockquote
style="border:none;border-left:solid #CCCCCC 1.0pt;padding:0in 0in 0in 6.0pt;margin-left:4.8pt;margin-right:0in">
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span
style="font-size:11.0pt"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div>
<p>REC -<o:p></o:p></p>
<p>Very timely... I did a deep dive/revisit (also
met the seminal work in college in the 70s) into
Limits to Growth and World3 before the Stockholm
workshop on Climate (and other existential
threats) Complexity Merle wrangled in 2019....
and was both impressed and disappointed.
Rockstrom and folks were located right across
the water from us where we met but to my
knowledge didn't engage... their work was very
complementary but did not feel as relevant to me
then as it does now.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p>In the following interview, I felt he began to
address many of the things I (previously) felt
were lacking in their framework previoiusly. It
was there all the time I'm sure, I just didn't
see it and I think they were not ready to talk
as broadly of implications 5 years ago as they
are now?<o:p></o:p></p>
<blockquote
style="margin-top:5.0pt;margin-bottom:5.0pt">
<p><a
href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i6_3mOgvrN4"
moz-do-not-send="true"
class="moz-txt-link-freetext">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i6_3mOgvrN4</a><o:p></o:p></p>
</blockquote>
<p>Did anyone notice the swiss village inundated
by debris and meltwater from the glacier
collapse uphill? Signs of the times or
"business as usual"?<o:p></o:p></p>
<p>- SAS<o:p></o:p></p>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span
style="font-size:11.0pt">On 5/30/25 12:16
PM, Roger Critchlow wrote:<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<blockquote
style="margin-top:5.0pt;margin-bottom:5.0pt">
<div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span
style="font-size:11.0pt"><a
href="https://thenextwavefutures.wordpress.com/2025/05/20/limits-to-growth-was-right-about-overshoot-and-collapse-new-data/"
moz-do-not-send="true"
class="moz-txt-link-freetext">https://thenextwavefutures.wordpress.com/2025/05/20/limits-to-growth-was-right-about-overshoot-and-collapse-new-data/</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span
style="font-size:11.0pt"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span
style="font-size:11.0pt">I remember the
Limits to Growth from my freshman year
in college. Now Hackernews links to the
above in which some people argue that
we've achieved the predicted overshoot
for the business as usual scenario and
the subsequent collapse begins now.
Enjoy the peak of human technological
development.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span
style="font-size:11.0pt"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span
style="font-size:11.0pt">-- rec --<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span
style="font-size:11.0pt"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
</div>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span
style="font-size:11.0pt"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
</div>
<pre>.- .-.. .-.. / ..-. --- --- - . .-. ... / .- .-. . / .-- .-. --- -. --. / ... --- -- . / .- .-. . / ..- ... . ..-. ..- .-..<o:p></o:p></pre>
<pre>FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv<o:p></o:p></pre>
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moz-do-not-send="true"
class="moz-txt-link-freetext">https://bit.ly/virtualfriam</a><o:p></o:p></pre>
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</blockquote>
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<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span
style="font-size:11.0pt">.- .-.. .-.. / ..-.
--- --- - . .-. ... / .- .-. . / .-- .-. ---
-. --. / ... --- -- . / .- .-. . / ..- ... .
..-. ..- .-..<o:p></o:p></span></p>
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<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span
style="font-size:11.0pt">FRIAM Applied
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt">.-
.-.. .-.. / ..-. --- --- - . .-. ... / .- .-. . /
.-- .-. --- -. --. / ... --- -- . / .- .-. . / ..-
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<br>
<fieldset class="moz-mime-attachment-header"></fieldset>
<pre class="moz-quote-pre" wrap="">.- .-.. .-.. / ..-. --- --- - . .-. ... / .- .-. . / .-- .-. --- -. --. / ... --- -- . / .- .-. . / ..- ... . ..-. ..- .-..
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
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to (un)subscribe <a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com">http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com</a>
FRIAM-COMIC <a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/">http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/</a>
archives: 5/2017 thru present <a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://redfish.com/pipermail/friam_redfish.com/">https://redfish.com/pipermail/friam_redfish.com/</a>
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</pre>
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