<!DOCTYPE html><html><head><title></title></head><body><div style="font-family:Arial;">Unfortunately, it is almost certain that there will never be enough 'fossil fuel free power stations' to supply needed energy for electric vehicles.</div><div style="font-family:Arial;"><br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;">Data centers, driven in large part by AI demands and cryptocurrency will leave nothing left over.</div><div style="font-family:Arial;"><br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;">Some numbers:</div><div style="font-family:Arial;"><br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;">Three Mile Island, which is being recommissioned to supply power to a couple of Microsoft Data Centers, has a capacity of 7 Terawatt hours(T/w/h) per year.</div><div style="font-family:Arial;"><br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;">In 2022 data centers, globally, consumed 460 TWh, by 2026 this is estimated to be 1,000 Twh. By 2040 projected demand is 2,000-3,000 TWh.</div><div style="font-family:Arial;"><br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;">Crypto adds 100-150 TWh in 2022, 200-300 in 2030, and 400-600 in 2040.</div><div style="font-family:Arial;"><br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;">Nuclear is unlikely to provide more than 25% of this demand.</div><div style="font-family:Arial;"><br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;">Between now and 2040, it will be necessary to build 100 TMI-capacity nuclear plants to supply that 25%.</div><div style="font-family:Arial;"><br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;">If solar is to supply the other 75%, it will require between 66,000 and 80,000 square miles of solar panels. (Don't know how many batteries, but the number is not trivial.)</div><div style="font-family:Arial;"><br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;">Wind power, for that 75%, will require 153,000 to 214,000 turbines, each requiring 50-60 acres of space beneath them. (Also the problem of batteries.)</div><div style="font-family:Arial;"><br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;">It takes 10-15 years to build a nuclear plant like TMI, have no idea now many dollars.</div><div style="font-family:Arial;"><br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;">Neither solar nor wind, nor combined, can be installed fast enough to meet this demand and, again, have no idea of cost.</div><div style="font-family:Arial;"><br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;">Nothing left over for cars, the lights in your home and office, or to charge your phone: unless, of course we continue to rely on oil (shale and fracking), natural gas, and coal.</div><div style="font-family:Arial;"><br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;">davew</div><div style="font-family:Arial;"><br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;"><br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;"><br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;"><br></div><div>On Sun, Jun 1, 2025, at 6:24 AM, Pieter Steenekamp wrote:</div><blockquote type="cite" id="qt" style=""><div dir="ltr">This is why I’m so excited about electric vehicles—I feel like a kid waiting for Christmas! Add clean fossil fuel free power stations into the mix, and voilà: abundant clean energy, no miracle inventions required. Just some clever tech and a whole lot of charging cables!</div><div><br></div><div class="qt-gmail_quote qt-gmail_quote_container"><div dir="ltr" class="qt-gmail_attr">On Sun, 1 Jun 2025 at 12:57, Jochen Fromm <<a href="mailto:jofr@cas-group.net">jofr@cas-group.net</a>> wrote:</div><blockquote class="qt-gmail_quote" style="margin-top:0px;margin-right:0px;margin-bottom:0px;margin-left:0.8ex;border-left-width:1px;border-left-style:solid;border-left-color:rgb(204, 204, 204);padding-left:1ex;"><div dir="auto"><p style="margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;" dir="ltr"><span style="color:rgb(0, 0, 0);font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-variant-alternates:normal;vertical-align:baseline;">I believe we all have a slighty distorted view because we were all born long after industrialization has started and have seen nothing but growth. Industrialization started around 200 years ago in Great Britain and spread shortly after to America and Europe. First by exploiting coal and steam engines, later by oil and petrol engines. Tanks, warplanes, warships as well as normal cars, planes and ships all consume oil.</span></p><div><br></div><p style="margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;" dir="ltr"><span style="color:rgb(0, 0, 0);font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-variant-alternates:normal;vertical-align:baseline;">Richard Heinberg writes in his book "The End of Growth": "with the fossil fuel revolution of the past century and a half, we have seen economic growth at a speed and scale unprecedented in all of human history. We harnessed the energies of coal, oil, and natural gas to build and operate cars, trucks, highways, airports, airplanes, and electric grids - all the esential features of modern industrial society. Through the one-time-only process of extracting and burning hundreds of millions of years worth of chemically stored sunlight, we built what appeared (for a brief, shining moment) to be a perpetual-growth machine. We learned to take what was in fact an extraordinary situation for granted. It became normal [...] During the past 150 years, expanding access to cheap and abundar fossil fuels enabled rapid economic expansion at an average rate of about three percent per year; economic planners began to take this situain for granted. Financial systems internalized the expectation of growth as a promise of returns on investments."</span></p><p style="margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;" dir="ltr"><span style="color:rgb(0, 0, 0);font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-variant-alternates:normal;vertical-align:baseline;"><a href="https://richardheinberg.com/bookshelf/the-end-of-growth-book" target="_blank">https://richardheinberg.com/bookshelf/the-end-of-growth-book</a></span></p><div><br></div><p style="margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;" dir="ltr"><span style="color:rgb(0, 0, 0);font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-variant-alternates:normal;vertical-align:baseline;">Heinberg argues the time of cheap and abundant fossil fuels has come to an end. There 1.5 billion cars in the world which consume oil and produce CO2. Resources are depleted while pollution and population have reached all time highs. It is true that humans are innovative and ingenious, especially in times of scarcity, necessity and need, and we are able to find replacements for depleted resources, but Heinberg argues in his book "Peak Everything: that "in a finite world, the number of possible replacements is also finite". For example we were able to replace the whale oil by petroleum, but finding a replacement for petroleum is much harder.</span></p><p style="margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;" dir="ltr"><span style="color:rgb(0, 0, 0);font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-variant-alternates:normal;vertical-align:baseline;"><a href="https://richardheinberg.com/bookshelf/peak-everything" target="_blank">https://richardheinberg.com/bookshelf/peak-everything</a></span></p><div><br></div><p style="margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;" dir="ltr"><span style="color:rgb(0, 0, 0);font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-variant-alternates:normal;vertical-align:baseline;">Without oil no army would move, traffic would cease, no container or cruise ship would be able to go anywhere and therefore international trade and tourism would stop. On the bright side no more plastic and CO2 pollution either. </span></p><div><br></div><p style="margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;" dir="ltr"><span style="color:rgb(0, 0, 0);font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-variant-alternates:normal;vertical-align:baseline;">In his book "End of Growth" Heinberg mentions "transition towns" as a path towards a more sustainable society and an economy which is not based on fossil-fuels.</span></p><p style="margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;" dir="ltr"><span style="color:rgb(0, 0, 0);font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-variant-alternates:normal;vertical-align:baseline;"><a href="https://donellameadows.org/archives/rob-hopkins-my-town-in-transition/" target="_blank">https://donellameadows.org/archives/rob-hopkins-my-town-in-transition/</a></span></p><p style="margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;" dir="ltr"><span style="color:rgb(0, 0, 0);font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-variant-alternates:normal;vertical-align:baseline;"></span><br></p><p style="margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;" dir="ltr">French author Victor Hugo wrote 200 years ago that "the paradise of the rich is made out of the hell of the poor". If rich people start to realize this and help to find a way to a more sustainable, livable society it would be a start.</p><p style="margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;" dir="ltr"><br></p><div dir="auto">-J.</div><div dir="auto"><br></div><div><br></div><div align="left" dir="auto" style="font-size:100%;color:rgb(0, 0, 0);"><div>-------- Original message --------</div><div>From: Pieter Steenekamp <<a href="mailto:pieters@randcontrols.co.za" target="_blank">pieters@randcontrols.co.za</a>></div><div>Date: 5/31/25 5:46 AM (GMT+01:00)</div><div>To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <<a href="mailto:friam@redfish.com" target="_blank">friam@redfish.com</a>></div><div>Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Limits to Growth</div><div><br></div></div><div dir="ltr"><div>I’ve always loved the Simon-Ehrlich bet story—two clever guys betting on the future of the planet. Ehrlich lost the bet, but the debate still runs circles today.</div><div><br></div><div><a href="https://ourworldindata.org/simon-ehrlich-bet" target="_blank">https://ourworldindata.org/simon-ehrlich-bet</a></div><div><br></div><div>This article nails it: over the long term, prices mostly go down, not up, as innovation kicks in. We don’t "run out" of resources—we get better at using them. Scarcity shifts, but human creativity shifts faster.</div><div><br></div><div>The Limits to Growth folks had good intentions, but the real limit seems to be how fast we can adapt and rethink. And so far, we’re doing okay—messy, uneven, but okay.</div><div><br></div><div>Turns out, betting against human ingenuity is the real risky business.</div></div><div><br></div><div class="qt-gmail_quote"><div class="qt-gmail_attr" dir="ltr">On Fri, 30 May 2025 at 21:51, steve smith <<a href="mailto:sasmyth@swcp.com" target="_blank">sasmyth@swcp.com</a>> wrote:</div><blockquote style="margin-top:0px;margin-right:0px;margin-bottom:0px;margin-left:0.8ex;border-left-width:1px;border-left-style:solid;border-left-color:rgb(204, 204, 204);padding-left:1ex;" class="qt-gmail_quote"><div><u></u><br></div><div><p>REC -</p><p>Very timely... I did a deep dive/revisit (also met the seminal
work in college in the 70s) into Limits to Growth and World3
before the Stockholm workshop on Climate (and other existential
threats) Complexity Merle wrangled in 2019.... and was both
impressed and disappointed. Rockstrom and folks were located
right across the water from us where we met but to my knowledge
didn't engage... their work was very complementary but did not
feel as relevant to me then as it does now.</p><p>In the following interview, I felt he began to address many of
the things I (previously) felt were lacking in their framework
previoiusly. It was there all the time I'm sure, I just didn't
see it and I think they were not ready to talk as broadly of
implications 5 years ago as they are now?</p><blockquote><p><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i6_3mOgvrN4" target="_blank">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i6_3mOgvrN4</a></p></blockquote><p>Did anyone notice the swiss village inundated by debris and
meltwater from the glacier collapse uphill? Signs of the times
or "business as usual"?</p><p>- SAS</p><div>On 5/30/25 12:16 PM, Roger Critchlow
wrote:</div><blockquote type="cite"><div dir="ltr"><div><a href="https://thenextwavefutures.wordpress.com/2025/05/20/limits-to-growth-was-right-about-overshoot-and-collapse-new-data/" target="_blank">https://thenextwavefutures.wordpress.com/2025/05/20/limits-to-growth-was-right-about-overshoot-and-collapse-new-data/</a></div><div><br></div><div>I remember the Limits to Growth from my freshman year in
college. Now Hackernews links to the above in which some
people argue that we've achieved the predicted overshoot for
the business as usual scenario and the subsequent collapse
begins now. Enjoy the peak of human technological
development.</div><div><br></div><div>-- rec --</div><div><br></div></div><div><br></div><pre>.- .-.. .-.. / ..-. --- --- - . .-. ... / .- .-. . / .-- .-. --- -. --. / ... --- -- . / .- .-. . / ..- ... . ..-. ..- .-..
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Fridays 9a-12p Friday St. Johns Cafe / Thursdays 9a-12p Zoom <a href="https://bit.ly/virtualfriam" target="_blank">https://bit.ly/virtualfriam</a>
to (un)subscribe <a href="http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com" target="_blank">http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com</a>
FRIAM-COMIC <a href="http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/</a>
archives: 5/2017 thru present <a href="https://redfish.com/pipermail/friam_redfish.com/" target="_blank">https://redfish.com/pipermail/friam_redfish.com/</a>
1/2003 thru 6/2021 <a href="http://friam.383.s1.nabble.com/" target="_blank">http://friam.383.s1.nabble.com/</a>
</pre></blockquote></div><div>.- .-.. .-.. / ..-. --- --- - . .-. ... / .- .-. . / .-- .-. --- -. --. / ... --- -- . / .- .-. . / ..- ... . ..-. ..- .-..</div><div> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv</div><div> Fridays 9a-12p Friday St. Johns Cafe / Thursdays 9a-12p Zoom <a rel="noreferrer" href="https://bit.ly/virtualfriam" target="_blank">https://bit.ly/virtualfriam</a></div><div> to (un)subscribe <a rel="noreferrer" href="http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com" target="_blank">http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com</a></div><div> FRIAM-COMIC <a rel="noreferrer" href="http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/</a></div><div> archives: 5/2017 thru present <a rel="noreferrer" href="https://redfish.com/pipermail/friam_redfish.com/" target="_blank">https://redfish.com/pipermail/friam_redfish.com/</a></div><div> 1/2003 thru 6/2021 <a rel="noreferrer" href="http://friam.383.s1.nabble.com/" target="_blank">http://friam.383.s1.nabble.com/</a></div></blockquote></div></div><div>.- .-.. .-.. / ..-. --- --- - . .-. ... / .- .-. . / .-- .-. --- -. --. / ... --- -- . / .- .-. . / ..- ... . ..-. ..- .-..</div><div> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv</div><div> Fridays 9a-12p Friday St. Johns Cafe / Thursdays 9a-12p Zoom <a href="https://bit.ly/virtualfriam" rel="noreferrer" target="_blank">https://bit.ly/virtualfriam</a></div><div> to (un)subscribe <a href="http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com" rel="noreferrer" target="_blank">http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com</a></div><div> FRIAM-COMIC <a href="http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/" rel="noreferrer" target="_blank">http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/</a></div><div> archives: 5/2017 thru present <a href="https://redfish.com/pipermail/friam_redfish.com/" rel="noreferrer" target="_blank">https://redfish.com/pipermail/friam_redfish.com/</a></div><div> 1/2003 thru 6/2021 <a href="http://friam.383.s1.nabble.com/" rel="noreferrer" target="_blank">http://friam.383.s1.nabble.com/</a></div></blockquote></div><div>.- .-.. .-.. / ..-. --- --- - . .-. ... / .- .-. . / .-- .-. --- -. --. / ... --- -- . / .- .-. . / ..- ... . ..-. ..- .-..</div><div>FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv</div><div>Fridays 9a-12p Friday St. Johns Cafe / Thursdays 9a-12p Zoom <a href="https://bit.ly/virtualfriam">https://bit.ly/virtualfriam</a></div><div>to (un)subscribe <a href="http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com">http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com</a></div><div>FRIAM-COMIC <a href="http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/">http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/</a></div><div>archives: 5/2017 thru present <a href="https://redfish.com/pipermail/friam_redfish.com/">https://redfish.com/pipermail/friam_redfish.com/</a></div><div> 1/2003 thru 6/2021 <a href="http://friam.383.s1.nabble.com/">http://friam.383.s1.nabble.com/</a></div><div><br></div></blockquote><div style="font-family:Arial;"><br></div></body></html>