<!DOCTYPE html><html><head><title></title></head><body><div style="font-family:Arial;">I shared the Wilson quote with the list several months back and it was pretty much trashed.</div><div style="font-family:Arial;"><br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;">I do not disagree with Roger, except that I do not believe greed to be the core, or even fundamental, problem. </div><div style="font-family:Arial;"><br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;">instead, I would nominate the deep "anti-hubris" conviction,almost universally shared, that humans are innately weak, stupid, and powerless. Some kind of "ovine-ity" complex that supports belief in gods, strong-men, and 'influencers'. That which allows us to be deluded into thinking that AI (or AGI) is somehow superior to human beings.</div><div style="font-family:Arial;"><br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;">I was born into and raised within a religion that states everyone, every human being, is an incipient god—you just have to put in the effort to learn—and yet I can probably count on two hands the number of people I know that actually seem to believe it.</div><div style="font-family:Arial;"><br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;">The one-tenth of one-percent that seem to be immune from this inferiority conviction become our "leaders." And yes, these individuals do appeal to the greedy and satiate the greedy (be they oligarch cronies or voters) in order to maintain power.</div><div style="font-family:Arial;"><br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;">Advocates for human potential and means for augmenting same are marginalized or criminalized; an example of the latter is J.Edgar Hoover asserting that Timothy Leary was "the most dangerous man alive.")</div><div style="font-family:Arial;"><br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;">Yes, I am that cynical.</div><div style="font-family:Arial;"><br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;">davew</div><div style="font-family:Arial;"><br></div><div style="font-family:Arial;"><br></div><div>On Tue, Jun 3, 2025, at 2:01 PM, steve smith wrote:</div><blockquote type="cite" id="qt" style=""><div>Roger Critchlow wrote:</div><blockquote type="cite" cite="mid:CAGayqosp0jfMS0LwimPQsr1tz2DDK2nBjT87f4OreHeOP1QRig@mail.gmail.com"><div dir="ltr"><div>The core problem is that people are greedy little
pigs. Some are greedier than others and some are more
successful in pursuing their greed, but we're all pigs and if
offered the chance to take a little more for ourselves, we take
it. Scale that up and it's tragedies of the commons all the way
down.</div><div><br></div><div>-- rec --</div><div><br></div></div></blockquote><p>and somehow, our elevating of individuals and groups to positions
of (political, spiritual, moral) authority/power over ourselves
(everyone else?) to try to either limit this greed or mitigate its
consequences has had mixed results and coupled with (other)
technologies has lead to an iterative "kicking the can down the
road" which keeps raising the stakes as the (only?) way to avoid
the current disaster we are facing?</p><p>Is there any evidence or suggestion that the emerging AI
overlords (monotheistic, pantheonic, animistic, panconscious) will
be more clever/able/powerful enough to end this cycle?</p><p>Or (as I think Pieter implies) this framing is just "all wrong"
and there is something like platonic "manifest destiny" that will
lead us forward through the chaos of our own technological
shockwaves? Is "the Singularity" just the instant when we reach
conceptual Mach1 and we catch up with our bow-wave in the
Kauffmanian "adjacent possible"? We just need to keep
accelerating until we break that "barrier"? </p><blockquote type="cite" cite="mid:CAGayqosp0jfMS0LwimPQsr1tz2DDK2nBjT87f4OreHeOP1QRig@mail.gmail.com"><div dir="ltr"><div><br></div></div><div><br></div><div class="qt-gmail_quote"><div dir="ltr" class="qt-gmail_attr">On Tue, Jun 3, 2025 at
12:17 PM Jochen Fromm <<a href="mailto:jofr@cas-group.net" target="_blank" class="qt-moz-txt-link-freetext">jofr@cas-group.net</a>>
wrote:</div><blockquote class="qt-gmail_quote" style="margin-top:0px;margin-right:0px;margin-bottom:0px;margin-left:0.8ex;border-left-width:1px;border-left-style:solid;border-left-color:rgb(204, 204, 204);padding-left:1ex;"><div dir="auto"><p style="margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;" dir="ltr"><span style="color:rgb(0, 0, 0);font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-variant-alternates:normal;vertical-align:baseline;">One
core problem is we have unleashed global capitalism and
seems to destroy the planet. Once the planet has been
destroyed and polluted it will be difficult to restore.
Communism does not work because nobody had an incentive
to work since nobody owned anything. Capitalism does not
work because nobody has an incentive to protect nature.
It means ruthless and relentless exploitation of
everything to make profit.</span></p><div><br></div><p style="margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;" dir="ltr"><span style="color:rgb(0, 0, 0);font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-variant-alternates:normal;vertical-align:baseline;">As
much as I would like to be hopeful about the future I
don't see radical abundance at all. It is true that AI
systems become more and more powerful. They soon will be
able to take away even the good, creative jobs like
writing, translating, coding and designing. This means
massive unemployment. In combination with high inflation
this will most likely be devastating.</span></p><div><br></div><p style="margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;" dir="ltr"><span style="color:rgb(0, 0, 0);font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-variant-alternates:normal;vertical-align:baseline;">If
we look at the past what happened if prices went up
radically and jobs were lost on a massive scale is that
people become outraged and angry and then some demagogue
comes along and deflects their anger and outrage towards
group xy [immigrants or black people or LGBTQ folks or
some other minority group] which is to blame for
everything and he is the only man who can solve it
because he is a strong man, etc. and we end up in a
world world ruled by strongmen, each of them ruler of a
great power having a sphere of influence and strategic
interest in which they allow no opposition. In this
autocratic world the big and strong countries decide the
fate of their smaller neighbors and anyone who disagrees
vanishes in an artic gulag or horrible prison in
mesoamerica.</span></p><div><br></div><p style="margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;" dir="ltr"><span style="color:rgb(0, 0, 0);font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-variant-alternates:normal;vertical-align:baseline;">As
Edward O. Wilson said "The real problem of humanity is
the following: We have Paleolithic emotions, medieval
institutions and godlike technology. And it is
terrifically dangerous, and it is now approaching a
point of crisis overall."</span></p><div dir="auto"><br></div><div dir="auto">-J.</div><div dir="auto"><br></div><div><br></div><div><br></div><div><br></div><div><br></div><div><br></div><div dir="auto" style="font-size:100%;color:rgb(0, 0, 0);" align="left"><div>-------- Original message --------</div><div>From: Pieter Steenekamp <<a href="mailto:pieters@randcontrols.co.za" target="_blank" class="qt-moz-txt-link-freetext">pieters@randcontrols.co.za</a>></div><div>Date: 6/2/25 2:06 AM (GMT+01:00)</div><div>To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee
Group <<a href="mailto:friam@redfish.com" target="_blank" class="qt-moz-txt-link-freetext">friam@redfish.com</a>></div><div>Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Limits to Growth</div><div><br></div></div><div dir="ltr"><div>It seems I’m the only one here who’s feeling
hopeful about the future of humanity. I don’t think
civilisation is about to fall apart. In fact, I believe
we’re heading towards a time of radical abundance.</div><div> <br></div><div> I was going to prove this by asking my crystal ball… but
sadly, the batteries are flat. So you’ll just have to
trust me when I say I know the truth, the whole truth, and
nothing but the truth.</div><div> <br></div><div> Of course, many of you probably think you have the real
truth. And maybe you're right!</div><div> <br></div><div> I guess the honest thing to say is: the future is
unknowable. We can all make good arguments, quote experts,
and write long replies—but there simply isn’t enough
evidence to say with high confidence what the future holds
for humanity.</div><div> <br></div><div> To end off: yes, I agree that without further innovation,
we could be in serious trouble. But a strong counterpoint
is that, over the last few hundred years, human creativity
has helped us overcome challenge after challenge.</div><div> <br></div><div> Unless someone shares a new angle I haven’t heard yet,
I’ll leave it here and won’t post again on this thread.</div></div><div><br></div><div class="qt-gmail_quote"><div class="qt-gmail_attr" dir="ltr">On Sun, 1 Jun 2025 at
22:41, Marcus Daniels <<a href="mailto:marcus@snoutfarm.com" target="_blank" class="qt-moz-txt-link-freetext">marcus@snoutfarm.com</a>>
wrote:</div><blockquote style="margin-top:0px;margin-right:0px;margin-bottom:0px;margin-left:0.8ex;border-left-width:1px;border-left-style:solid;border-left-color:rgb(204, 204, 204);padding-left:1ex;" class="qt-gmail_quote"><div><div lang="EN-US"><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span class="size" style="font-size:11pt;">Texas
uses a lot more electricity than California
despite being a smaller economy. What’s
interesting is that there is no one sink for
that power. It isn’t pumping (although there
is a lot of pumping), and it isn’t residential
air conditioning or data centers. It’s
bigger everything and an appetite to use power
across the board.</span></p><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span class="size" style="font-size:11pt;"> </span></p><div style="border-right-width:medium;border-right-style:none;border-right-color:currentcolor;border-bottom-width:medium;border-bottom-style:none;border-bottom-color:currentcolor;border-left-width:medium;border-left-style:none;border-left-color:currentcolor;border-top-width:1pt;border-top-style:solid;border-top-color:rgb(181, 196, 223);padding-top:3pt;padding-right:0in;padding-bottom:0in;padding-left:0in;"><p style="margin-bottom:12pt;" class="qt-MsoNormal"><b><span style="color:black;"><span class="size" style="font-size:12pt;">From: </span></span></b><span style="color:black;"><span class="size" style="font-size:12pt;">Friam
<<a href="mailto:friam-bounces@redfish.com" target="_blank" class="qt-moz-txt-link-freetext">friam-bounces@redfish.com</a>>
on behalf of steve smith <<a href="mailto:sasmyth@swcp.com" target="_blank" class="qt-moz-txt-link-freetext">sasmyth@swcp.com</a>><br> <b>Date: </b>Sunday, June 1, 2025 at
12:18 PM<br> <b>To: </b><a href="mailto:friam@redfish.com" target="_blank" class="qt-moz-txt-link-freetext">friam@redfish.com</a> <<a href="mailto:friam@redfish.com" target="_blank" class="qt-moz-txt-link-freetext">friam@redfish.com</a>><br> <b>Subject: </b>Re: [FRIAM] Limits to
Growth</span></span></p></div><p>As we know, I'm of the school of thought that
(techno) Utopian and Dystopian visions are two
sides of the same coin:</p><p><peak-oil></p><blockquote style="margin-top:5pt;margin-bottom:5pt;"><p>I think peak oil (fossil-fuels) is a real
thing, now matter how much we slide the
timescale with innovative ways to suck harder
or deeper and burn it more efficiently... and
in particular the side-effect of saturating
the atmo(bio)sphere with carbon particulates,
polymers (e.g. microplastics) and molecules
(COn, CH4, etc) and the myriad attendant
not-very-healthy-to-most-life chloroflouros
and Nitrous-this-n-thats and ... on and on.
We (in our technofuturist way) pretend we have
maxwell demons or geni-rebottlers or
pandora-box-refillers on the drawing boards
which will do their work faster than entropy
and in the particular techno-industrial
concentrated-energy-fueled version thereof. </p><p>Fossil fuels made us into an incredibly
energy-hungry/wasteful society... I'm a fan
of Switzerland's (nominal) 2000W society
(aspiration), although the human *animal's*
basal metabolic rate is <100W avg and peaks
at 200-300W (burst performance athlete). The
the nominal consumption for the western world
is EU (5k) and US (10k) of which a big part
from the infrastructure and other "hidden"
sources like transport of food/goods across
the planet for our appetite and convenience.
The "global south" is considered to make it on
500-1500W. 8B humans at "subsistence" would
demand 8tW continuous and at US rates, 80tW
continuous. </p><p>I haven't resolved this against DaveW's
numbers but I take his to be
order-of-magnitude accurate on principle. As
we add supersonic and orbital-vacation
transport I suspect we might jack that another
10X... not to (even) mention power-hungry
crypto/AI demands? GPT (ironic no?) helped
me guestimate 40w/user (engaged) continuous
*currently*. A significant fraction of a
carbon-frugal "budget" and a measurable
plus-up on our gluttonous US (and even EU or
CH) versions? </p></blockquote><p></peak-oil></p><p><EV-enthusiasm></p><blockquote style="margin-top:5pt;margin-bottom:5pt;"><p>I'm a big fan/early adopter (tinkerer really)
of "electric vehicles" and renewable energy,
but the numbers just don't work. I was
hypermiling my Honda CRX (fit my oversized
frame like a slipper or roller skate) long
before there were viable production electrics
or hybrids. I had the back half of a donor
CRX ready to receive the rear differential of
a miata or rx7 (same stance, similar
suspension mounts) with a 90's brushless DC
motor as well as a pair of VW cabriolets
(running but one lame) as well for the same
conception (early 2000s) when I scored a
year1/gen1 Honda Insight (and a friend spun
the CRX out in the rain)... so I gave up on
my hypermiling (70mpg RT to Los Alamos, power
up, coast home) for thoughtful
Insight-driving. All three of these models
were order 2k lbs. Most vehicles are/were
3k-6klbs.</p><p>Along came the Chevy Volt (2011) and in 2016
I picked one up which had been used up... or
at least the hybrid battery (at 166k miles).
A used (95k mile) battery and a lot of tech
work and it was back to full function. The
VWs never broke 40mpg hypermiling, the CRX
clocked 70mpg in ideal conditions, the Insight
topped 50-55mpg with careful driving (hard to
hypermile a CVT), and with the PHEV nature of
the volt I can still pull >70mpg if I
ignore the input from the grid. The old
battery is offering about 10kWh of capacity
for a homestead scale PV I'm assembling from
$.10/W used solar panels mainly to buffer for
the PHEV charging. Unfortunately the
replacement Volt battery is finally getting
lame and replacement is such a huge effort
this 15 year old vehicle will go the way of
many other 200k mile plus vehicles. I've
backfilled with a low(er) mileage 2014 Ford
C-Max PHEV with only about 10 miles (compared
to new-30 in the volt) PHEV which I'm getting
roughly the same effective MPG (still ignoring
the grid input). I'm looking for a Gen2 Volt
which had 50mile EV-only range (otherwise very
similar to Gen1) as I might move *all* my
semi-local miles to Electric (and supply them
with used PV staged through the upcycled EV
batteries?).</p><p>FWIW, the anti-EV stories about the extra
weight yielding accelerated brake/tire wear is
specious in my experience. My *driving
habits* in an EV (or hypermiled
conventional/hybrid) obviate excess tire wear
(no spinouts, no uber-accelleration/braking)
and even a thoughtless driver likely gets more
from regenerative braking than any excess
weight abuse... I also claim that being
MPG/consumption attunes my driving habits to
fewer/shorter/slower trips. I have owned a
few gas-guzzling vehicles in my life,
including one I commuted too far in for a
while... the 32 gallon tank convolved with
peaking gas prices and a 60 mile RT commute
that year should have warned me off... but
instead I just closed my eyes and ran my
plastic through the card reader 1.5 times per
week... my housing cost differential paid the
bill but without regard to the planet. I did
give over to a carpool in a 30mpg vehicle
(shared 3 ways) for a while which really beat
the 15mpg 1-person I was doing otherwise. I
went through a LOT more tire rubber and brake
pads in that context than I ever did in years
of hybrid/EV ownership. Did I say specious?
Or at least apples-orangatans?</p></blockquote><p></EV-enthusiasm> </p><p><Alt/Transport ideation></p><blockquote style="margin-top:5pt;margin-bottom:5pt;"><p>I also have my 750W (foldable) eBike which is
(currently) impractical to me (closest
services 10 miles of 4 lane) for anything but
recreation/exercise and a 300W lower-body
exoskeleton, each of which has much better
"mpg" in principle (esp eBike) when hybridized
with human calorie-to-kinetic conversion.
I've a friend (10 years my senior) whose
e-Recumbent-trike with similar specs is his
primary mode of utility transport (under 20
miles RT). </p><p>All that said, I don't think electromotifying
4-6klb hunks of steel and glass with
environmental control suitable for 0F-120F
comfort for 4+ people while traveling at
60+mph and making 0-60 accellerations in under
6 seconds is really a viable strategy for the
8B folks on the planet we want to sell them
to. Esp with a useful lifetime of <15
years?(planned obselescence aside?). Maybe
robo-taxi/rideshare versions in the context of
(mostly) walkable cities (nod to JennyQ) and
public transport and general local/regionalism
is (semi) viable. </p></blockquote><p></Alt-Transport ideation></p><p><Local/Regionalism></p><blockquote style="margin-top:5pt;margin-bottom:5pt;"><p> I've got strawberry plants making me (from
compost and sunlight) fewer berries in a
season than I just bought at the grocery
imported from MX for <$3 (on sale)... and
my while I wait for my 3-sister's plantings to
produce a few months of carbs/protein at-best
the modern fossil-fuel/pollution global
marketplace offers me the same for probably
several tens of dollars? As a seed-saving,
composter with a well (that could be pumped by
solar but isn't) my impact on planetary
boundaries could be nil to positive... but it
is hard to scale this up even for myself, much
less proselytize and/or support my neighbors
in matching me. I cut Jeff Bezos off from my
direct support (via Amazon purchases) when he
aligned himself with the other TechBros
aligning with the Orange Tyrant, so I may well
have reduced my manufacturing/transport
appetite/consumption a little (small amounts
of that appetite moved to local traditional
store-forward versions as well as direct-mail
purchases from non-Amazon/big-box
distributors).</p></blockquote><p></Local-Regionalism></p><p><TechnoUtopianism></p><blockquote style="margin-top:5pt;margin-bottom:5pt;"><p>I am a reformed technoUtopian... I grew up
on "good old-fashioned future" science fiction
(starting with scientific romances from the
early industrial age) and studied and
practiced my way into a science education and
a technical career/lifestyle and wanted to
believe for the longest time that we could
always kick the can down the road a little
harder/smarter/further each time and/or just
"drive faster". And we are doing that
somewhat effectively *still*, but in my many
decades I've got more time glancing in the
rear-view mirror to see the smoking wreckage
behind us, as well as over the horizon to see
how many of the negative consequences of our
actions land on other folks who never came
close to enjoying the benefits of that
"progress". I guess that means this
erstwhile libertarian has become a
"self-loathing liberal".</p><p>Or a convert to the Buddhist ideal of
"Skillful Means"?</p></blockquote><p></TechnoUtopianism></p><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span class="size" style="font-size:11pt;">On 6/1/25 10:10 AM,
Marcus Daniels wrote:</span></p></div><blockquote style="margin-top:5pt;margin-bottom:5pt;"><div><p style="margin-bottom:12pt;" class="qt-MsoNormal"><span class="size" style="font-size:11pt;">I think you are
underestimating how much progress has been
made with batteries in recent years.<br> California has large solar resources, and
it is not unusual that during the day the
whole grid is powered by solar. Here is
from last week. Note the huge surge of
battery usage in the evening. Tens of
gigawatts of generation power are planned
for offshore wind too. <br> <br> Generally, though, I agree that much of
the planet is completely addicted to oil,
and there’s no technology that will yet
handle air travel. Hydrogen might work,
but it will take time. <br> <br> The way to break an addiction is to have
the addict hit rock bottom. <br> <br> There need to be some scary climate
events. The prices for energy need to
increase before people change their ways.
Redirecting energy into AI is one way to
bring that to fruition. </span></p><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span class="size" style="font-size:11pt;"><img alt="A chart of different colors
Description automatically generated" src="cid:part1.apB5GrCx.Qr4Z9Iuo@swcp.com" style="width:5.8958in;height:2.4583in;" class="qt-" width="566" height="236" crossorigin="anonymous"></span><br></p><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span class="size" style="font-size:11pt;"> </span></p><div style="border-right-width:medium;border-right-style:none;border-right-color:currentcolor;border-bottom-width:medium;border-bottom-style:none;border-bottom-color:currentcolor;border-left-width:medium;border-left-style:none;border-left-color:currentcolor;border-top-width:1pt;border-top-style:solid;border-top-color:rgb(181, 196, 223);padding-top:3pt;padding-right:0in;padding-bottom:0in;padding-left:0in;"><p style="margin-bottom:12pt;" class="qt-MsoNormal"><b><span style="color:black;"><span class="size" style="font-size:12pt;">From: </span></span></b><span style="color:black;"><span class="size" style="font-size:12pt;">Friam <a href="mailto:friam-bounces@redfish.com" target="_blank"><friam-bounces@redfish.com></a> on behalf of Prof David West <a href="mailto:profwest@fastmail.fm" target="_blank"><profwest@fastmail.fm></a><br> <b>Date: </b>Sunday, June 1, 2025 at
8:27 AM<br> <b>To: </b><a href="mailto:friam@redfish.com" target="_blank" class="qt-moz-txt-link-freetext">friam@redfish.com</a> <a href="mailto:friam@redfish.com" target="_blank"><friam@redfish.com></a><br> <b>Subject: </b>Re: [FRIAM] Limits to
Growth</span></span></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span class="font" style="font-family:Arial, sans-serif;"><span class="size" style="font-size:11pt;">Unfortunately, it is
almost certain that there will never be
enough 'fossil fuel free power stations'
to supply needed energy for electric
vehicles.</span></span></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span class="font" style="font-family:Arial, sans-serif;"><span class="size" style="font-size:11pt;"> </span></span></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span class="font" style="font-family:Arial, sans-serif;"><span class="size" style="font-size:11pt;">Data centers, driven
in large part by AI demands and
cryptocurrency will leave nothing left
over.</span></span></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span class="font" style="font-family:Arial, sans-serif;"><span class="size" style="font-size:11pt;"> </span></span></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span class="font" style="font-family:Arial, sans-serif;"><span class="size" style="font-size:11pt;">Some numbers:</span></span></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span class="font" style="font-family:Arial, sans-serif;"><span class="size" style="font-size:11pt;"> </span></span></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span class="font" style="font-family:Arial, sans-serif;"><span class="size" style="font-size:11pt;">Three Mile Island,
which is being recommissioned to supply
power to a couple of Microsoft Data
Centers, has a capacity of 7 Terawatt
hours(T/w/h) per year.</span></span></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span class="font" style="font-family:Arial, sans-serif;"><span class="size" style="font-size:11pt;"> </span></span></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span class="font" style="font-family:Arial, sans-serif;"><span class="size" style="font-size:11pt;">In 2022 data
centers, globally, consumed 460 TWh, by
2026 this is estimated to be 1,000 Twh.
By 2040 projected demand is 2,000-3,000
TWh.</span></span></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span class="font" style="font-family:Arial, sans-serif;"><span class="size" style="font-size:11pt;"> </span></span></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span class="font" style="font-family:Arial, sans-serif;"><span class="size" style="font-size:11pt;">Crypto adds 100-150
TWh in 2022, 200-300 in 2030, and
400-600 in 2040.</span></span></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span class="font" style="font-family:Arial, sans-serif;"><span class="size" style="font-size:11pt;"> </span></span></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span class="font" style="font-family:Arial, sans-serif;"><span class="size" style="font-size:11pt;">Nuclear is unlikely
to provide more than 25% of this demand.</span></span></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span class="font" style="font-family:Arial, sans-serif;"><span class="size" style="font-size:11pt;"> </span></span></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span class="font" style="font-family:Arial, sans-serif;"><span class="size" style="font-size:11pt;">Between now and
2040, it will be necessary to build 100
TMI-capacity nuclear plants to supply
that 25%.</span></span></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span class="font" style="font-family:Arial, sans-serif;"><span class="size" style="font-size:11pt;"> </span></span></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span class="font" style="font-family:Arial, sans-serif;"><span class="size" style="font-size:11pt;">If solar is to
supply the other 75%, it will require
between 66,000 and 80,000 square miles
of solar panels. (Don't know how many
batteries, but the number is not
trivial.)</span></span></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span class="font" style="font-family:Arial, sans-serif;"><span class="size" style="font-size:11pt;"> </span></span></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span class="font" style="font-family:Arial, sans-serif;"><span class="size" style="font-size:11pt;">Wind power, for that
75%, will require 153,000 to 214,000
turbines, each requiring 50-60 acres of
space beneath them. (Also the problem of
batteries.)</span></span></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span class="font" style="font-family:Arial, sans-serif;"><span class="size" style="font-size:11pt;"> </span></span></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span class="font" style="font-family:Arial, sans-serif;"><span class="size" style="font-size:11pt;">It takes 10-15 years
to build a nuclear plant like TMI, have
no idea now many dollars.</span></span></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span class="font" style="font-family:Arial, sans-serif;"><span class="size" style="font-size:11pt;"> </span></span></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span class="font" style="font-family:Arial, sans-serif;"><span class="size" style="font-size:11pt;">Neither solar nor
wind, nor combined, can be installed
fast enough to meet this demand and,
again, have no idea of cost.</span></span></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span class="font" style="font-family:Arial, sans-serif;"><span class="size" style="font-size:11pt;"> </span></span></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span class="font" style="font-family:Arial, sans-serif;"><span class="size" style="font-size:11pt;">Nothing left over
for cars, the lights in your home and
office, or to charge your phone: unless,
of course we continue to rely on oil
(shale and fracking), natural gas, and
coal.</span></span></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span class="font" style="font-family:Arial, sans-serif;"><span class="size" style="font-size:11pt;"> </span></span></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span class="font" style="font-family:Arial, sans-serif;"><span class="size" style="font-size:11pt;">davew</span></span></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span class="font" style="font-family:Arial, sans-serif;"><span class="size" style="font-size:11pt;"> </span></span></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span class="font" style="font-family:Arial, sans-serif;"><span class="size" style="font-size:11pt;"> </span></span></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span class="font" style="font-family:Arial, sans-serif;"><span class="size" style="font-size:11pt;"> </span></span></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span class="font" style="font-family:Arial, sans-serif;"><span class="size" style="font-size:11pt;"> </span></span></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span class="size" style="font-size:11pt;">On Sun, Jun 1,
2025, at 6:24 AM, Pieter Steenekamp
wrote:</span></p></div><blockquote id="qt-m_4596097804870485599m_-2319753569289023829m_-1136272739487046623qt" style="margin-top:5pt;margin-bottom:5pt;"><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span class="size" style="font-size:11pt;">This is why I’m
so excited about electric vehicles—I
feel like a kid waiting for Christmas!
Add clean fossil fuel free power
stations into the mix, and voilà:
abundant clean energy, no miracle
inventions required. Just some clever
tech and a whole lot of charging
cables!</span></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span class="size" style="font-size:11pt;"> </span></p></div><div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span class="size" style="font-size:11pt;">On Sun, 1 Jun
2025 at 12:57, Jochen Fromm <<a href="mailto:jofr@cas-group.net" target="_blank" class="qt-moz-txt-link-freetext">jofr@cas-group.net</a>>
wrote:</span></p></div><blockquote style="border-top-width:medium;border-top-style:none;border-top-color:currentcolor;border-right-width:medium;border-right-style:none;border-right-color:currentcolor;border-bottom-width:medium;border-bottom-style:none;border-bottom-color:currentcolor;border-left-width:1pt;border-left-style:solid;border-left-color:rgb(204, 204, 204);padding-top:0in;padding-right:0in;padding-bottom:0in;padding-left:6pt;margin-top:5pt;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:5pt;margin-left:4.8pt;"><div><p style="margin-top:0in;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:0in;margin-left:0in;"><span style="color:black;">I believe we
all have a slighty distorted view
because we were all born long
after industrialization has
started and have seen nothing but
growth. Industrialization started
around 200 years ago in Great
Britain and spread shortly after
to America and Europe. First by
exploiting coal and steam engines,
later by oil and petrol engines.
Tanks, warplanes, warships as well
as normal cars, planes and ships
all consume oil.</span></p><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span class="size" style="font-size:11pt;"> </span></p></div><p style="margin-top:0in;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:0in;margin-left:0in;"><span style="color:black;">Richard
Heinberg writes in his book "The
End of Growth": "with the fossil
fuel revolution of the past
century and a half, we have seen
economic growth at a speed and
scale unprecedented in all of
human history. We harnessed the
energies of coal, oil, and natural
gas to build and operate cars,
trucks, highways, airports,
airplanes, and electric grids -
all the esential features of
modern industrial society. Through
the one-time-only process of
extracting and burning hundreds of
millions of years worth of
chemically stored sunlight, we
built what appeared (for a brief,
shining moment) to be a
perpetual-growth machine. We
learned to take what was in fact
an extraordinary situation for
granted. It became normal [...]
During the past 150 years,
expanding access to cheap and
abundar fossil fuels enabled rapid
economic expansion at an average
rate of about three percent per
year; economic planners began to
take this situain for granted.
Financial systems internalized the
expectation of growth as a promise
of returns on investments."</span></p><p style="margin-top:0in;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:0in;margin-left:0in;"><span style="color:black;"><a href="https://richardheinberg.com/bookshelf/the-end-of-growth-book" target="_blank" class="qt-moz-txt-link-freetext">https://richardheinberg.com/bookshelf/the-end-of-growth-book</a></span></p><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span class="size" style="font-size:11pt;"> </span></p></div><p style="margin-top:0in;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:0in;margin-left:0in;"><span style="color:black;">Heinberg
argues the time of cheap and
abundant fossil fuels has come to
an end. There 1.5 billion cars in
the world which consume oil and
produce CO2. Resources are
depleted while pollution and
population have reached all time
highs. It is true that humans are
innovative and ingenious,
especially in times of scarcity,
necessity and need, and we are
able to find replacements for
depleted resources, but Heinberg
argues in his book "Peak
Everything: that "in a finite
world, the number of possible
replacements is also finite". For
example we were able to replace
the whale oil by petroleum, but
finding a replacement for
petroleum is much harder.</span></p><p style="margin-top:0in;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:0in;margin-left:0in;"><span style="color:black;"><a href="https://richardheinberg.com/bookshelf/peak-everything" target="_blank" class="qt-moz-txt-link-freetext">https://richardheinberg.com/bookshelf/peak-everything</a></span></p><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span class="size" style="font-size:11pt;"> </span></p></div><p style="margin-top:0in;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:0in;margin-left:0in;"><span style="color:black;">Without oil no
army would move, traffic would
cease, no container or cruise ship
would be able to go anywhere and
therefore international trade and
tourism would stop. On the bright
side no more plastic and CO2
pollution either. </span></p><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span class="size" style="font-size:11pt;"> </span></p></div><p style="margin-top:0in;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:0in;margin-left:0in;"><span style="color:black;">In his book
"End of Growth" Heinberg mentions
"transition towns" as a path
towards a more sustainable society
and an economy which is not based
on fossil-fuels.</span></p><p style="margin-top:0in;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:0in;margin-left:0in;"><span style="color:black;"><a href="https://donellameadows.org/archives/rob-hopkins-my-town-in-transition/" target="_blank" class="qt-moz-txt-link-freetext">https://donellameadows.org/archives/rob-hopkins-my-town-in-transition/</a></span></p><p style="margin-top:0in;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:0in;margin-left:0in;"> </p><p style="margin-top:0in;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:0in;margin-left:0in;">French author
Victor Hugo wrote 200 years ago that
"the paradise of the rich is made
out of the hell of the poor". If
rich people start to realize this
and help to find a way to a more
sustainable, livable society it
would be a start.</p><p style="margin-top:0in;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:0in;margin-left:0in;"> </p><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span class="size" style="font-size:11pt;">-J.</span></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span class="size" style="font-size:11pt;"> </span></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span class="size" style="font-size:11pt;"> </span></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span style="color:black;"><span class="size" style="font-size:11pt;">-------- Original message --------</span></span></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span style="color:black;"><span class="size" style="font-size:11pt;">From: Pieter Steenekamp <<a href="mailto:pieters@randcontrols.co.za" target="_blank" class="qt-moz-txt-link-freetext">pieters@randcontrols.co.za</a>></span></span></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span style="color:black;"><span class="size" style="font-size:11pt;">Date: 5/31/25 5:46 AM (GMT+01:00)</span></span></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span style="color:black;"><span class="size" style="font-size:11pt;">To: The Friday Morning Applied
Complexity Coffee Group <<a href="mailto:friam@redfish.com" target="_blank" class="qt-moz-txt-link-freetext">friam@redfish.com</a>></span></span></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span style="color:black;"><span class="size" style="font-size:11pt;">Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Limits to Growth</span></span></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span style="color:black;"><span class="size" style="font-size:11pt;"> </span></span></p></div><div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span class="size" style="font-size:11pt;">I’ve
always loved the Simon-Ehrlich
bet story—two clever guys
betting on the future of the
planet. Ehrlich lost the bet,
but the debate still runs
circles today.</span></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span class="size" style="font-size:11pt;"> </span></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span class="size" style="font-size:11pt;"><a href="https://ourworldindata.org/simon-ehrlich-bet" target="_blank" class="qt-moz-txt-link-freetext">https://ourworldindata.org/simon-ehrlich-bet</a></span></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span class="size" style="font-size:11pt;"> </span></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span class="size" style="font-size:11pt;">This
article nails it: over the
long term, prices mostly go
down, not up, as innovation
kicks in. We don’t "run out"
of resources—we get better at
using them. Scarcity shifts,
but human creativity shifts
faster.</span></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span class="size" style="font-size:11pt;"> </span></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span class="size" style="font-size:11pt;">The
Limits to Growth folks had
good intentions, but the real
limit seems to be how fast we
can adapt and rethink. And so
far, we’re doing okay—messy,
uneven, but okay.</span></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span class="size" style="font-size:11pt;"> </span></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span class="size" style="font-size:11pt;">Turns
out, betting against human
ingenuity is the real risky
business.</span></p></div></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span class="size" style="font-size:11pt;"> </span></p></div><div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span class="size" style="font-size:11pt;">On Fri,
30 May 2025 at 21:51, steve
smith <<a href="mailto:sasmyth@swcp.com" target="_blank" class="qt-moz-txt-link-freetext">sasmyth@swcp.com</a>> wrote:</span></p></div><blockquote style="border-top-width:medium;border-top-style:none;border-top-color:currentcolor;border-right-width:medium;border-right-style:none;border-right-color:currentcolor;border-bottom-width:medium;border-bottom-style:none;border-bottom-color:currentcolor;border-left-width:1pt;border-left-style:solid;border-left-color:rgb(204, 204, 204);padding-top:0in;padding-right:0in;padding-bottom:0in;padding-left:6pt;margin-top:5pt;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:5pt;margin-left:4.8pt;"><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span class="size" style="font-size:11pt;"> </span></p></div><div><p>REC -</p><p>Very timely... I did a deep
dive/revisit (also met the
seminal work in college in the
70s) into Limits to Growth and
World3 before the Stockholm
workshop on Climate (and other
existential threats)
Complexity Merle wrangled in
2019.... and was both
impressed and disappointed.
Rockstrom and folks were
located right across the water
from us where we met but to my
knowledge didn't engage...
their work was very
complementary but did not feel
as relevant to me then as it
does now.</p><p>In the following interview, I
felt he began to address many
of the things I (previously)
felt were lacking in their
framework previoiusly. It was
there all the time I'm sure, I
just didn't see it and I think
they were not ready to talk as
broadly of implications 5
years ago as they are now?</p><blockquote style="margin-top:5pt;margin-bottom:5pt;"><p><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i6_3mOgvrN4" target="_blank" class="qt-moz-txt-link-freetext">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i6_3mOgvrN4</a></p></blockquote><p>Did anyone notice the swiss
village inundated by debris
and meltwater from the glacier
collapse uphill? Signs of
the times or "business as
usual"?</p><p>- SAS</p><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span class="size" style="font-size:11pt;">On
5/30/25 12:16 PM, Roger
Critchlow wrote:</span></p></div><blockquote style="margin-top:5pt;margin-bottom:5pt;"><div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span class="size" style="font-size:11pt;"><a href="https://thenextwavefutures.wordpress.com/2025/05/20/limits-to-growth-was-right-about-overshoot-and-collapse-new-data/" target="_blank" class="qt-moz-txt-link-freetext">https://thenextwavefutures.wordpress.com/2025/05/20/limits-to-growth-was-right-about-overshoot-and-collapse-new-data/</a></span></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span class="size" style="font-size:11pt;"> </span></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span class="size" style="font-size:11pt;">I
remember the Limits to
Growth from my
freshman year in
college. Now
Hackernews links to
the above in which
some people argue that
we've achieved the
predicted overshoot
for the business as
usual scenario and the
subsequent collapse
begins now. Enjoy the
peak of human
technological
development.</span></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span class="size" style="font-size:11pt;"> </span></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span class="size" style="font-size:11pt;">--
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5/2017 thru present <a href="https://redfish.com/pipermail/friam_redfish.com/" target="_blank" class="qt-moz-txt-link-freetext">https://redfish.com/pipermail/friam_redfish.com/</a></span></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span class="size" style="font-size:11pt;"> 1/2003 thru
6/2021 <a href="http://friam.383.s1.nabble.com/" target="_blank" class="qt-moz-txt-link-freetext">http://friam.383.s1.nabble.com/</a></span></p></div><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span class="size" style="font-size:11pt;"> </span></p></div></blockquote><div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span class="font" style="font-family:Arial, sans-serif;"><span class="size" style="font-size:11pt;"> </span></span></p></div></div><p class="qt-MsoNormal"><span class="size" style="font-size:11pt;"><br></span></p><pre>.- .-.. .-.. / ..-. --- --- - . .-. ... / .- .-. . / .-- .-. --- -. --. / ... --- -- . / .- .-. . / ..- ... . ..-. ..- .-..</pre><pre>FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv</pre><pre>Fridays 9a-12p Friday St. Johns Cafe / Thursdays 9a-12p Zoom <a href="https://bit.ly/virtualfriam" target="_blank" class="qt-moz-txt-link-freetext">https://bit.ly/virtualfriam</a></pre><pre>to (un)subscribe <a href="http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com" target="_blank" class="qt-moz-txt-link-freetext">http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com</a></pre><pre>FRIAM-COMIC <a href="http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" class="qt-moz-txt-link-freetext">http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/</a></pre><pre>archives: 5/2017 thru present <a href="https://redfish.com/pipermail/friam_redfish.com/" target="_blank" class="qt-moz-txt-link-freetext">https://redfish.com/pipermail/friam_redfish.com/</a></pre><pre> 1/2003 thru 6/2021 <a href="http://friam.383.s1.nabble.com/" target="_blank" class="qt-moz-txt-link-freetext">http://friam.383.s1.nabble.com/</a></pre></blockquote></div></div><div>.- .-.. .-.. / ..-. --- --- - . .-. ... / .- .-. . /
.-- .-. --- -. --. / ... --- -- . / .- .-. . / ..- ...
. ..-. ..- .-..</div><div> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv</div><div> Fridays 9a-12p Friday St. Johns Cafe / Thursdays
9a-12p Zoom <a rel="noreferrer" href="https://bit.ly/virtualfriam" target="_blank" class="qt-moz-txt-link-freetext">https://bit.ly/virtualfriam</a></div><div> to (un)subscribe <a rel="noreferrer" href="http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com" target="_blank" class="qt-moz-txt-link-freetext">http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com</a></div><div> FRIAM-COMIC <a rel="noreferrer" href="http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" class="qt-moz-txt-link-freetext">http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/</a></div><div> archives: 5/2017 thru present <a rel="noreferrer" href="https://redfish.com/pipermail/friam_redfish.com/" target="_blank" class="qt-moz-txt-link-freetext">https://redfish.com/pipermail/friam_redfish.com/</a></div><div> 1/2003 thru 6/2021 <a rel="noreferrer" href="http://friam.383.s1.nabble.com/" target="_blank" class="qt-moz-txt-link-freetext">http://friam.383.s1.nabble.com/</a></div></div></blockquote></div></div><div>.- .-.. .-.. / ..-. --- --- - . .-. ... / .- .-. . / .-- .-.
--- -. --. / ... --- -- . / .- .-. . / ..- ... . ..-. ..- .-..</div><div> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv</div><div> Fridays 9a-12p Friday St. Johns Cafe / Thursdays 9a-12p
Zoom <a href="https://bit.ly/virtualfriam" rel="noreferrer" target="_blank" class="qt-moz-txt-link-freetext">https://bit.ly/virtualfriam</a></div><div> to (un)subscribe <a href="http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com" rel="noreferrer" target="_blank" class="qt-moz-txt-link-freetext">http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com</a></div><div> FRIAM-COMIC <a href="http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/" rel="noreferrer" target="_blank" class="qt-moz-txt-link-freetext">http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/</a></div><div> archives: 5/2017 thru present <a href="https://redfish.com/pipermail/friam_redfish.com/" rel="noreferrer" target="_blank" class="qt-moz-txt-link-freetext">https://redfish.com/pipermail/friam_redfish.com/</a></div><div> 1/2003 thru 6/2021 <a href="http://friam.383.s1.nabble.com/" rel="noreferrer" target="_blank" class="qt-moz-txt-link-freetext">http://friam.383.s1.nabble.com/</a></div></blockquote></div><div><br></div><pre class="qt-moz-quote-pre">.- .-.. .-.. / ..-. --- --- - . .-. ... / .- .-. . / .-- .-. --- -. --. / ... --- -- . / .- .-. . / ..- ... . ..-. ..- .-..
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Fridays 9a-12p Friday St. Johns Cafe / Thursdays 9a-12p Zoom <a class="qt-moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://bit.ly/virtualfriam">https://bit.ly/virtualfriam</a>
to (un)subscribe <a class="qt-moz-txt-link-freetext" href="http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com">http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com</a>
FRIAM-COMIC <a class="qt-moz-txt-link-freetext" href="http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/">http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/</a>
archives: 5/2017 thru present <a class="qt-moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://redfish.com/pipermail/friam_redfish.com/">https://redfish.com/pipermail/friam_redfish.com/</a>
1/2003 thru 6/2021 <a class="qt-moz-txt-link-freetext" href="http://friam.383.s1.nabble.com/">http://friam.383.s1.nabble.com/</a>
</pre></blockquote><div>.- .-.. .-.. / ..-. --- --- - . .-. ... / .- .-. . / .-- .-. --- -. --. / ... --- -- . / .- .-. . / ..- ... . ..-. ..- .-..</div><div>FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv</div><div>Fridays 9a-12p Friday St. Johns Cafe / Thursdays 9a-12p Zoom <a href="https://bit.ly/virtualfriam">https://bit.ly/virtualfriam</a></div><div>to (un)subscribe <a href="http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com">http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com</a></div><div>FRIAM-COMIC <a href="http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/">http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/</a></div><div>archives: 5/2017 thru present <a href="https://redfish.com/pipermail/friam_redfish.com/">https://redfish.com/pipermail/friam_redfish.com/</a></div><div> 1/2003 thru 6/2021 <a href="http://friam.383.s1.nabble.com/">http://friam.383.s1.nabble.com/</a></div><div><br></div><div><br></div><div><b>Attachments:</b></div><ul><li>OpenPGP_0xD5BAF94F88AFFA63.asc</li><li>OpenPGP_signature.asc</li></ul></blockquote><div style="font-family:Arial;"><br></div></body></html>