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<p>DaveW & All -</p>
<p>I recognized sometime after i hit send that I might have sounded
like I was accusing you (DaveW) of something when in fact it is
our (yours and mine) co-proximity to folks who come from (and
exist in) a milieu that is far from the milieu of politics,
economics, and academia who (therefore?) are acutely suspicious of
all of those engineered (e.g. constitution, federal reserve/cenral
banks, canon of western literary and technical works) systems
which have *also* evolved as (coupled) self-organizing systems
tethered to or bound by those documents which some hold up as
sacred and others treat as a cafeteria menu.<br>
</p>
<p>This touches on one of the faults of populist democratic
self-rule (worst of all governing systems excepting all of those
we have already tried), especially coupled with multiple large
factions with megaphones (e.g. major political parties, factions
of same, Wall Street, Ivy League, Unions, Churches, etc). What
I'm perseverating on (in my mind if not effectively here) is the
way these large groups A) take credit for the the "power" of the
people they pretend to represent/support); B ) set up a *field*
which these individual agents (citizens, subjects, people,
customers, clients, marks) couple with and reinforce with their
own "power" (e.g. cash, re-broadcast opinions, mob-actions, etc).</p>
<p>The "salt of the earth" folks the Donald seems to have captured
the imagination of, the folks with dirt or grease in the creases
of their calloused hands, the folks who take their showers at the
end of the day instead of the beginning, the folks whose work has
apparent first order effect in the physical world ( digging in the
dirt, cutting down trees, making little ones out of big ones,
etc), or wear uniforms, carry badges and weild deadly weapons
under significant immunity protection, and therefore have their
vote, their willingness to drive their dually diesels rolling coal
down the street with confederate/trump flags flapping presenting
their highly lethat firearms, all as an expression of "freedom of
expression". This doesn't make these people "deplorable"
(HIllary's biggest faux pas?) even if the things they are
demanding (or even effecting in some cases) might be. <br>
</p>
<p>The fires ravaging "sacred" places such as the North Rim are as
meaningful to "us" perhaps as those which ravaged LA? In LA, it
was too easy (for some) to blame the victims... that's what they
get for living so tightly packed, they didn't rake their
forests!!!, they are all just a bunch of Democraps anyway!. The
Donald also redoubled his efforts to allow usurious,
environmentally destructive practices to double down in these
areas... the opening up to mining, drilling,timbering, including
undesignating roadless areas *must* equally rally and
gripe-the-hell-out-of those living nearby to the directly affected
regsions. Sure it will be more fun to drive that dually diesel
4x4 deeper into the forest/badlands to livestream (via
cell-to-satellite starlink) the shooting of an elk or two without
having to hike any distance, but some folks might actually miss
the experience implied by wide open vistas which require
significant personal effort to "earn the experience"?</p>
<p>Ok, what was intending to be an apology to DaveW for implicating
him personally in all these things that wind me up (maybe more
because I have been and am in many ways still close to them?) has
turned into *another* rant. I must stop.</p>
<p>What do "we" know that might be of help in remedying what I am
identifying as faults in our mode(s) of "collectivism". In the
spirit of part-whole conflation/emergence, *can* we, as sentient
beings (maybe with the technical leverage of LLMs, etc) take a
more conscious part in the collectives we are a part of? We
already do it by trying to design/engineer/clamp these systems to
our presumed intention, but it does seem that these "best laid
plans often go awry"? What insights does complex systems science
offer us to obtain another result?</p>
<p>Bumble,</p>
<p> - SteveS<br>
</p>
<div class="moz-cite-prefix">On 7/15/2025 6:59 PM, Steve Smith
wrote:<br>
</div>
<blockquote type="cite"
cite="mid:7e5f355c-e892-4a9a-8c4c-50a2b2fe0b8e@swcp.com">
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<div class="moz-cite-prefix">DaveW -</div>
<div class="moz-cite-prefix">:<br>
</div>
<blockquote type="cite"
cite="mid:a3f1f228-4e49-43ad-a169-cbf81ff4f763@app.fastmail.com">
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<div style="font-family:Arial;">Hi Steve,</div>
<div style="font-family:Arial;"><br>
</div>
<div style="font-family:Arial;">I am living in beautiful Saint
Paul MN: 90 degrees and 90% humidity. No air conditioning in
our house. Dogs retreated to under porch digging nests in the
cooler soil - I just swelter. Oh, the air is polluted with
tons of smoke—"very dangerous level"—from the half of Canada
that is being consumed with fire.</div>
</blockquote>
In St. Paul, don't you have a basement? Nothing like
ground-coupling to mitigate the wild swings of air temperature we
are experiencing.... like the dogs under the porch know! I've
never lived with a basement but always wonderd why a HEPA or
similar filter on a basement window and a fan drawing air up from
the coolth of below wouldn't give some whole-house relief?<br>
<blockquote type="cite"
cite="mid:a3f1f228-4e49-43ad-a169-cbf81ff4f763@app.fastmail.com">
<div style="font-family:Arial;"><br>
</div>
<div style="font-family:Arial;">My brother still lives in
southern Utah, about midway between Bryce and Zion. There was
a huge fire just to the east of him (about 20 miles) burning
east and north, then the two Grand Canyon fires. Has had smoke
issues a couple of days but nothing more.</div>
</blockquote>
To your next point, were many of your neighbors when you lived
there, climate skeptics? Are they thinking "jewish space lasers"
now?<br>
<blockquote type="cite"
cite="mid:a3f1f228-4e49-43ad-a169-cbf81ff4f763@app.fastmail.com">
<div style="font-family:Arial;"><br>
</div>
<div style="font-family:Arial;">I have never been a climate
change skeptic, nor unwilling to acknowledge the role played
by humans.</div>
</blockquote>
<p>I was once a mild skeptic myself... mostly in the vein of what
you say later with: "any meaningful effect on forces that
accumulated over 2-10 centuries"... the climate science (not
even called that yet of the 90s was sneaking up on the problem
one metric at a time and were consistently finding "bad news"
but I had a hard time ignoring the implied "hubris" of the more
vocal climate activists (grown out of an environmental activism
of the time which I was significantly aligned with in spirit if
not detail). It wasn't particularl alarmist quite yet... if
anything the folks working on the proto-field were *under*
reacting (as seen in hindsight today).<br>
</p>
<p>I was just remembering a short note you once shared suggesting
"the one thing I feel a little guilty about is not taking
Climate Change more seriously earlier"? It might be a bad
misquote and it really doesn't matter... I think we *all*
recognize that things have probably been worse than we realized
for some time? Or not.<br>
</p>
<blockquote type="cite"
cite="mid:a3f1f228-4e49-43ad-a169-cbf81ff4f763@app.fastmail.com">
<div style="font-family:Arial;">I have been a critic of the
monolithic orthodoxy surrounding the political and
"scientific" posturing. But that is just my general antipathy
to simplistic science.</div>
</blockquote>
<p>I think I know that about you and respect it and to some extent
share it. I am not as *allergic* to it as I once was and find
many today. It is this hyper-immune response I'm trying to
understand at the collective level (returning to the question of
whether a mob of angry people is actually an angry mob in the
same way as the people themselves are). </p>
<p> My father's peers from the timber/ranching world were
signicantly hyper-immune to anybody telling them anything whilst
falling back on the idea that "public lands" belonged to the
public (in their case, to them personally somehow) while
ignoring that the spanish-descended settlers in the valley were
there before their grandfathers came with repeating rifles and
rousted these folks who only had hoes and shovels to defend
themselves. They of course were mostly backfill taking over the
semi-traditional hunting/foraging grounds of the Dine' (Apache)
rounded up by the US Cavalry after the Civil War, who in fact
hadn't really been there that many generations since *they*
wandered in from the PNW and forced the more sedentary, less
aggressive Mogollon (descendents) out. <br>
</p>
<p>Some of this is willfully ignorant greed and hubris... but as I
knew these folks (through their kids), they were pretty sincere
about everything they did (otherwise) and had I not seen it from
the Freddy (Federal Government Representative) side at least
part of the time I too might have armed myself to the teeth and
played Waco/Ruby-Ridge/BundyRanch as they like to ( orat least
pretend to be ready to do). And given the current gutting (to
the backbone) of many of the federal agencies under Trump for
the benefit of at least the big corporations but also, at least
superficially the folks I just referenced who voted for him 3
times and are ready to put him back in charge for another 30
years even if they have to wheel his stuffed carcass out on
stage with an LLM-driven speaker in his face, I thnk we have an
immune-response problem. I'll grant that the insults delivered
to the body politic that elicited the immune response were a
problem, maybe even (now we know where it leads)
unconsciounable, but it is the immune response that is killing
us.<br>
</p>
<blockquote type="cite"
cite="mid:a3f1f228-4e49-43ad-a169-cbf81ff4f763@app.fastmail.com">
<div style="font-family:Arial;">Gaia is a <b>complex</b> system
(person)</div>
</blockquote>
I'm a bit panconscious/animistic by temperament myself, whether i
want to project onto the entire earth system anything acutely
human-nature like or not. <br>
<blockquote type="cite"
cite="mid:a3f1f228-4e49-43ad-a169-cbf81ff4f763@app.fastmail.com">
<div style="font-family:Arial;"> so when scientists treat her
otherwise</div>
</blockquote>
I'd blame engineers and economists and politicians and
specifically those with vested money/power/professional interests
more than "real scientists" though most of the scientists I've
worked with play engineer and vested capitalist (their grants and
salary and even bonuses and other perks may well depend on
pleasing the current powers-that-be) much of the time. The folks
with a non-linear perspective, with a complex-systems lens, and
not too attached to getting rich and famous and selling their best
ideas to the highest bidder and publishing the most papers, they
don't do this so much.<br>
<blockquote type="cite"
cite="mid:a3f1f228-4e49-43ad-a169-cbf81ff4f763@app.fastmail.com">
<div style="font-family:Arial;">—as if she was a deterministic
system—and make bold, and dire, predictions, set absolute
tipping points, etc., I just want to scream liar liar. It is
more complicated than that—as our former colleague at FRIAM
used to say.</div>
</blockquote>
I am more incensed by those who *take* those predictions and
tipping points and make them bold and dire and absolute to promote
*their* agenda, than those who ?innocently? gave them that
ammunition. <br>
<blockquote type="cite"
cite="mid:a3f1f228-4e49-43ad-a169-cbf81ff4f763@app.fastmail.com">
<div style="font-family:Arial;">Worse, are the "solutions."</div>
</blockquote>
The geo-engineers among us are the most offensive IMO... to carry
the legacy of the folks who fouled the nest and then insisting
that their new version of "fouling for profit" will "solve
everything" is a good example. Even though I've been a
vehicle-efficiency nut since I bought my first motorcycle, rode my
bicycle primarily during college, and owned (mostly) high
efficiency vehicles of various stripes up to and including trying
to electrify a couple of vehicles (by thinking hard about it which
as it turns out never gets anything done), I am pretty sure it is
the car-culture I was raised up in (and embrace to this day) that
is a big component of our pollution/energy-consumption/personal
dis-connection, thoughtless hyperconsumption problems.
Electrons vs Petrol vs Diesel and 100mpg vs 10mpg are likely just
deck-chairs on the Titanic.<br>
<blockquote type="cite"
cite="mid:a3f1f228-4e49-43ad-a169-cbf81ff4f763@app.fastmail.com">
<div style="font-family:Arial;"> There is no way to know if
reducing carbon will, in fact, have the effect expected, let
alone, solve the problem</div>
</blockquote>
Au contraire... only a little look into the facts will make it
pretty clear that the "nutrient cycling" of sequestered carbon
from millenia ago into our atmosphere at mega-industrial rates, as
primarily CO2 and CH4 is a YUUUGE greenhouse driver. I agree
that backing off now on driving the flywheel might seem pretty
hopeless, but "put the pedal to the metal" and "drill baby drill"
is not just wrong but acutely wrong-headed unless of course
apocalypse is our goal? End times? Rapture anyone? I prefer
Gibson's "Jackpot"<br>
<blockquote type="cite"
cite="mid:a3f1f228-4e49-43ad-a169-cbf81ff4f763@app.fastmail.com">
<div style="font-family:Arial;">. And why does anyone think that
human actions over a span of one or two decades will have any
meaningful effect on forces that accumulated over 2-10
centuries?</div>
</blockquote>
If I thought the worst of our environmental/species-collapse was
triggered *more* by the deforestation of Europe that was *already*
a problem in 1492 or the REforestation of North America implied by
the Orbis Spike or the acute particulate pollution raining down on
London (and surrounds) as the Welsh/Brits learned to burn coal
(poorly) and turn it into everything from motive power to
cooking/heat source, or the replacement of horses in NYC circa
1900 with ICE motor vehicles (replacing feet thick layers of horse
manure with "invisible" engine
exhaust,...........................................................
than for example the range of coal/crude-oil/natural-gas to
CO2/CO/particulates we have dumped into the atmosphere in my
adulthood (50 years) then I would agree "it doesn't matter what we
do tomorrow".<br>
<blockquote type="cite"
cite="mid:a3f1f228-4e49-43ad-a169-cbf81ff4f763@app.fastmail.com">
<div style="font-family:Arial;"> <br>
</div>
<div style="font-family:Arial;">"Human Caused Climate Change"
has ceased to be a scientific issue and become nothing more
than a cudgel used by various groups to increase their
political and economic power at the expense of the others. (No
cynicism here.)</div>
</blockquote>
<p>Yeh, it's used a s cudgel, but I think MAGA took that away from
the lilly livered, bleeding heart liberals and while they are
busy beating them into the ground, are also taking out the baby
seals, beluga whales, silvery minnows, spotted owls, and the
(non-european) immigrants who pick our produce, pluck and
butcher our chickens, clean our toilets and keep our children
from running out into the street in front of 1 ton 'murrican
made 4x4 double-cab dually diesels "rolling coal" while sporting
Trump/Confederate flags not to mention a non-trivial subset of
the folks who wear their MAGA hats too tight and are ready to
vote Trump in again for as many terms as they can prop his
taxidermed carcass up (with an LLM-driven speaker in his
mouth)... </rant><br>
</p>
<blockquote type="cite"
cite="mid:a3f1f228-4e49-43ad-a169-cbf81ff4f763@app.fastmail.com">
<div style="font-family:Arial;">Mostly, i am betting on Gaia to
solve the problem in her own way. Probably indirectly with a
mega-pandemic or some such.</div>
</blockquote>
<p>I'm with you on this one, though I think a mega-pandemic would
be a coup-de-grace where my cynicism/schadenfruede side wants us
to wallow in our own civil-unrest/toxic-waste/denuded biosphere
bed which we are making for a few centuries, before Gaia finally
let's us pass on to re-incarnate as-a-species (whole/group
conflation extra-ordinaire) with enough fresh humility to work
our way back up some evolutionary chain to see if we can do
"sentient" better? <br>
</p>
<p>And on the other hand Techno Utopians as Pieter (mildly)
represents might be right, we might be able to build humanoid
robots with so many legs and such good dexterity that they can
kick *all the cans* down the road faster than we (and they) can
toss new ones into our own path?<br>
</p>
<blockquote>The snail climbs mt Fuji<br>
Slowly, slowly<br>
</blockquote>
Or maybe not, maybe just pave the planet with PV panels and data
centers so yokels like me can blather on on an internet Mail List
instead of going out and nurturing the fig tree I thoughtlessly
transplanted during the hottest time of the hottest summer in this
area yet? Probably nothing to do with Carbon cycling... so far
our winters aren't getting colder, maybe I can just help
warmer-climate flora/fauna migrate north through my window.<br>
<blockquote type="cite"
cite="mid:a3f1f228-4e49-43ad-a169-cbf81ff4f763@app.fastmail.com">
<div style="font-family:Arial;"><br>
</div>
<div style="font-family:Arial;">davew</div>
<div style="font-family:Arial;"><br>
</div>
<div style="font-family:Arial;"><br>
</div>
<div style="font-family:Arial;">On Tue, Jul 15, 2025, at 5:03
PM, Steve Smith wrote:</div>
<div style="font-family:Arial;">> DaveW -</div>
<div style="font-family:Arial;">></div>
<div style="font-family:Arial;">> I know you have moved from
SoUtah to the Great Lakes (MI?) but must </div>
<div style="font-family:Arial;">> still have family friends
living back in Utah, not that far really from </div>
<div style="font-family:Arial;">> both the North Rim fire
which just burned the Grand Lodge (and much </div>
<div style="font-family:Arial;">> more) there, and the LaSal
FIreNado that was so spectacular and took out </div>
<div style="font-family:Arial;">> a small off-grid community
there.</div>
<div style="font-family:Arial;">></div>
<div style="font-family:Arial;">> I think you have reflected
on feeling some regret over not taking </div>
<div style="font-family:Arial;">> Climate Change more
seriously earlier (we all have our processes and </div>
<div style="font-family:Arial;">> paths around these types of
things). I grew up around fire and </div>
<div style="font-family:Arial;">> fire-fighting, mostly in
rural pinon/ponderosa forests with my father as </div>
<div style="font-family:Arial;">> a USFS disctrict ranger who
used to also spend one or several multi-week </div>
<div style="font-family:Arial;">> stints leading fire-crews
in the Pacific NW or California. There was </div>
<div style="font-family:Arial;">> no conception of there
being a global scale warming/drying, but I do </div>
<div style="font-family:Arial;">> remember him being acutely
aware that "a good Spring" meant "a bad </div>
<div style="font-family:Arial;">> Summer" in those Pacific
forests, yielding a great deal more </div>
<div style="font-family:Arial;">> undergrowth, etc to carry
fire on the ground even before/outside the </div>
<div style="font-family:Arial;">> bigger-hotter fires that
would travel crown-crown.</div>
<div style="font-family:Arial;">></div>
<div style="font-family:Arial;">> What I'm circling in on is
the question of the general denial we have </div>
<div style="font-family:Arial;">> all perhaps been engaged
in, each in our own way, about the sweeping </div>
<div style="font-family:Arial;">> (nominally global if not
Global) changes which human activity has </div>
<div style="font-family:Arial;">> triggered. I once (a
decade ago?) invoked the idea that homo sapiens, </div>
<div style="font-family:Arial;">> at the end of the
pleistocene, were the cause (as much indirectly as </div>
<div style="font-family:Arial;">> directly) of the plunge in
Megafauna in both the New World and northern </div>
<div style="font-family:Arial;">> Eurasia. Glen schooled me
on the counter-arguments against that theory </div>
<div style="font-family:Arial;">> and I don't need to
re-litigate that range of possibilities so much as </div>
<div style="font-family:Arial;">> to simply point out that
"homo sapiens" is an acutely *potent* species, </div>
<div style="font-family:Arial;">> especially come neolithics,
agriculture, written language, urbanization, </div>
<div style="font-family:Arial;">> modern technological
development (from archimedes to daVinci to the </div>
<div style="font-family:Arial;">> folks doing the work in
Musk's (and others) name).</div>
<div style="font-family:Arial;">></div>
<div style="font-family:Arial;">> All this background to open
the question of whether the otherwise </div>
<div style="font-family:Arial;">> well-grounded,
fundamentally intelligent, situationally clever folks </div>
<div style="font-family:Arial;">> which I grew up around and
DaveW (and others here I am sure) feel an </div>
<div style="font-family:Arial;">> affinity with or closeness
to (Permaculturists before Bill Mollison?) </div>
<div style="font-family:Arial;">> have shifted "forward" to
recognizing that the rate of change of our </div>
<div style="font-family:Arial;">> (humans + domesticates +
tech + self-modifying tech) is yielding </div>
<div style="font-family:Arial;">> "unexpected consequences"
in a short enough time frame to see the </div>
<div style="font-family:Arial;">> consequences of our actions
(albeit years or decades later, but not </div>
<div style="font-family:Arial;">> generations?). If my
belief that homo-sapiens managed to disrupt the </div>
<div style="font-family:Arial;">> megafauna (by
spearing/driving-them-off-cliffs, or just disrupting all </div>
<div style="font-family:Arial;">> aspects of the ecologies
they depended on) holds any water, no </div>
<div style="font-family:Arial;">> individual likely woke up
one day and asked "where did all the Mastadons </div>
<div style="font-family:Arial;">> go?" or even " where did
those huge hairy, tusky creatures my great </div>
<div style="font-family:Arial;">> grandfather used to speak
of go?", but we are a smear of generations </div>
<div style="font-family:Arial;">> (born 30's through 90s?)
who likely recognize that truisms we grew up </div>
<div style="font-family:Arial;">> with about the natural
world as well as the political and economic </div>
<div style="font-family:Arial;">> system are no longer what
we either were taught to believe they were or </div>
<div style="font-family:Arial;">> came to believe through our
direct experience they were?</div>
<div style="font-family:Arial;">></div>
<div style="font-family:Arial;">> My father struggled with
the locals who lived on cattle ranching and </div>
<div style="font-family:Arial;">> lumber milling, not
accepting that those resources they depended on were </div>
<div style="font-family:Arial;">> not infiinite... they saw
the limits of "timber sales" and "grazing </div>
<div style="font-family:Arial;">> allotments" a huge
inconvenience (at best) to an acute insult to them </div>
<div style="font-family:Arial;">> and their ability to "just
make a living". The local bar in the town I </div>
<div style="font-family:Arial;">> went to grade school in
sports a taxidermed owl with the sign "eat an </div>
<div style="font-family:Arial;">> owl, save a logger" (for
example). Some of the locals who worked as </div>
<div style="font-family:Arial;">> seasonal fire-fighters
occasionally would get busted for lighting off </div>
<div style="font-family:Arial;">> forest fires to create work
for themselves. My father was very pleased </div>
<div style="font-family:Arial;">> with the roughly 50% of the
ranchers he worked with who actually had </div>
<div style="font-family:Arial;">> studied (formally or
informally) range management and were as eager as </div>
<div style="font-family:Arial;">> he was to make sure that
5-10 years later the grasslands their cattle </div>
<div style="font-family:Arial;">> were grazing on were at
least as healthy as the were today and often </div>
<div style="font-family:Arial;">> they were interested in
returning a formerly overgrazed section into </div>
<div style="font-family:Arial;">> something
yet-more-productive. Then were the other 50% who were just
mad </div>
<div style="font-family:Arial;">> because *they* didn't get
to take *their half out of the middle*.</div>
<div style="font-family:Arial;">></div>
<div style="font-family:Arial;">> Mary's milieu was primarily
W. Nebraska farmers who are still voting </div>
<div style="font-family:Arial;">> Trump back in every chance
they get, even though somewhere along the </div>
<div style="font-family:Arial;">> line, most understand that
the wells they sunk into the Oglala in the </div>
<div style="font-family:Arial;">> 60s are now dry and have to
be deepened and that the dead seeds Monsanto </div>
<div style="font-family:Arial;">> (and their ilk) and
Fertilizers and Insecticides their fathers poured </div>
<div style="font-family:Arial;">> over the landscape with
gusto might well be the source of their cancers </div>
<div style="font-family:Arial;">> and other maladies.</div>
<div style="font-family:Arial;">></div>
<div style="font-family:Arial;">> Our own founder's main
business in this domain (visualizing and modeling </div>
<div style="font-family:Arial;">> Wildfire and many other
topographic/topological registered phenomena) </div>
<div style="font-family:Arial;">> naturally engage with folks
who are acute stakeholders in the areas </div>
<div style="font-family:Arial;">> which are
burning/flooding/toxic-pluming/eroding/etc. I understand </div>
<div style="font-family:Arial;">> that Guerin has his own
(equally good) reasons as Glen not to mix work </div>
<div style="font-family:Arial;">> and FriAM.</div>
<div style="font-family:Arial;">></div>
<div style="font-family:Arial;">> And yet we are watching
something as overwhelming as the Dustbowl of the </div>
<div style="font-family:Arial;">> 30s sweeping the whole
earth, and yet we are arguing over whether EVs </div>
<div style="font-family:Arial;">> cost more to operate
because they are heavier and wear brakes and tires </div>
<div style="font-family:Arial;">> faster? Or whether the
area of strip coal mine rendered useless for </div>
<div style="font-family:Arial;">> other purposes is better or
worse than the same area covered in PV panels?</div>
<div style="font-family:Arial;">></div>
<div style="font-family:Arial;">> Ok... just a rant...
triggered by my childhood memories of watching </div>
<div style="font-family:Arial;">> fires crown across the road
near our home while watching firenados </div>
<div style="font-family:Arial;">> destroy places I'v evisited
and my favorite national Park Lodge burn down.</div>
<div style="font-family:Arial;">></div>
<div style="font-family:Arial;">></div>
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