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<p>> We're between cycles of exploitation and exploration, and
there's some adaptation that is required. <br>
</p>
<p>Excellent point to amplify BTW... the engine/cycle/metabolic
cycle of growth of complexity seems to be
exploration-exploitation-exaptation?<br>
<br>
</p>
<div class="moz-cite-prefix">On 11/17/25 12:58 pm, Steve Smith
wrote:<br>
</div>
<blockquote type="cite"
cite="mid:4859c9d7-99ce-4faa-996e-dcf2890d5832@swcp.com">
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<p>synthetic modulators of the feedback loops of a socio-cultural
metabolism of morbid obesity?</p>
<p>GLP1: a new mono-myth suitable for (firstworld) recovery
(metabolic reset) from a life of junk-news/info consumption and
other poor collective life choices?</p>
<p>Does such lead to teleonomic healing or teleonomic capture?
This is the never-ending debate between rePubs and Dems, between
hyper-disciplinarian dad and indulgent mom? </p>
<div class="moz-cite-prefix">On 11/17/25 12:41 pm, Marcus Daniels
wrote:<br>
</div>
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<p class="MsoNormal">Eli Lilly for GLP 1s?<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<div>
<div
style="border:none;border-top:solid #E1E1E1 1.0pt;padding:3.0pt 0in 0in 0in">
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span
style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif">From:</span></b><span
style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif">
Friam <a class="moz-txt-link-rfc2396E"
href="mailto:friam-bounces@redfish.com"
moz-do-not-send="true"><friam-bounces@redfish.com></a>
<b>On Behalf Of </b>Steve Smith<br>
<b>Sent:</b> Monday, November 17, 2025 10:41 AM<br>
<b>To:</b> <a
class="moz-txt-link-abbreviated moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="mailto:friam@redfish.com"
moz-do-not-send="true">friam@redfish.com</a><br>
<b>Subject:</b> Re: [FRIAM] Fwd: The coming AI
crash-worse than the Dot Com stock collapse?<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
</div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p>I don't even know if I will send my response to this
thread, I've come to delete most of my "usual" offerings
without sending, some without finishing, others without
starting. Some kind of entropy-minimization strategy on
"y'all's" side of my Markov Blanket?<o:p></o:p></p>
<p>Lots of rich stuff here. I don't think I disagree with any
sentiment here (can they ALL be compatible?). Tom's
original (implied) question is probably as much about
"should those of us with fat ETF portfolios switch their mix
from high-performing AI-fueled to some other place with
better risk/reward ratios?" as it is about "is there even a
'there there' in the AI cascade of new affordances and
competencies being offered (hyped) by 'the market'. But
maybe they are fundamentally the same question in this
highly human-conditioned manifold of intersubjective reality
we inhabit together?<o:p></o:p></p>
<p>Obligatory anecdote: when a moved to my current property
(2000), A huge russian olive (50' tall, 3'diameter trunk,
broad reaching branches) hosted a huge magpie nest in one of
the forking horizontal branches... maybe 6-8' long made of
branches from all over the property (area) and many other
elements. It had a half-dozen babies in it when I first
came to review the property but by the time we moved in,
they had fledged and the nest was fully abandoned (only for
the season?) Within the year we took it upon ourselves to
remove the nest and found the myriad bits of interesting
detritus they had gathered. The structure of the nest
seemed fully rhymed and reasoned in spite of being
opportunistic to the branch/twig/grass/fur/??? at hand and
wabi sabi in the extreme, but the strange bright bits of
yarn, string, fabric, bottle caps, broken glass, etc cetera,
were much more arcane/occult-to-me. But nevertheless
alliterated, rhymed and likely reasoned. As did our own
slow picking-apart of the structure with the help of Jays,
Packrats, and the weather which had it's own uses for these
"objects of desire"?<o:p></o:p></p>
<p>Within 3 years West Nile flared up the Rio Grande, killing
(most notably, but not exclusively) Magpies. Even now, 20
years later, the populations have barely begun to recover in
a small way, probably migrated back down from the
Chama/Rio-Grande headwaters and environs? This anecdote
could tangent into the (very few) people I know of who
contracted (and one died) of West Nile during that time, and
the cascade of influences/effects that had on the lives of
the people I know, but except for a vague "where did all the
Magpies go?" I hardly registered the *devastating* effect it
had on the Magpies (and likely many other corvids/birds in
the region?). Or tangent to the "Rabbit Hemorhaggic Fever
Pandemic" which coincided with human's COVID 19 which
devastated the Jack and Cotton populations here (and many
other regions globally)... <o:p></o:p></p>
<p>This is probably an allegory or parable or something.
Re:Cautionary Tales starring NRA wankers - I did just (re)
watch two Charlton Heston classics from my "coming of age"
era: "Soylent Green" and "Planet of the Apes" but was
spared (paywalls) from "Omega Man". I didn't tangent to
"Ben Hur" nor "Moses" for different reasons, but to quote
Glen (who might have been quoting David Byrne?):<o:p></o:p></p>
<blockquote style="margin-top:5.0pt;margin-bottom:5.0pt">
<blockquote style="margin-top:5.0pt;margin-bottom:5.0pt">
<p>"Same as it ever was!"<o:p></o:p></p>
</blockquote>
</blockquote>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal">On 11/17/25 10:57 am, glen wrote:<o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<blockquote style="margin-top:5.0pt;margin-bottom:5.0pt">
<p class="MsoNormal">That's the point. Some of us line our
nests with robust things like straw. Others line theirs
with fantasies peddled by grifters and then expect the
rest of us to share our nests when theirs collapse. We
will *definitely* bail out the capitalists again ... and
again ... and again, even after/while they['re]
deport[ing] us, abusing us, killing us, sending us to kill
foreigners, stealing our water to run their data centers,
etc. <br>
<br>
We are the gift that keeps on giving. <br>
<br>
On 11/17/25 9:17 AM, Marcus Daniels wrote: <br>
<br>
<o:p></o:p></p>
<blockquote style="margin-top:5.0pt;margin-bottom:5.0pt">
<p class="MsoNormal">I remember where I was when I saw
Torvalds\u2019 first Linux release. I started downloading
pretty much immediately and looking for a PC to
sacrifice. It was hardly capitalist hype. <br>
<br>
*From: *Friam <a
href="mailto:friam-bounces@redfish.com"
moz-do-not-send="true"><friam-bounces@redfish.com></a>
on behalf of glen <a href="mailto:gepropella@gmail.com"
moz-do-not-send="true"><gepropella@gmail.com></a>
<br>
*Date: *Monday, November 17, 2025 at 8:54<span
style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif">\u202f</span>AM
<br>
*To: <a href="mailto:*friam@redfish.com"
moz-do-not-send="true" class="moz-txt-link-freetext">*friam@redfish.com</a>
<a href="mailto:friam@redfish.com"
moz-do-not-send="true"><friam@redfish.com></a> <br>
*Subject: *Re: [FRIAM] Fwd: The coming AI crash-worse
than the Dot Com stock collapse? <br>
<br>
Exactly. That's Chris' basic argument. Even his point
about fscking Twitter. To argue that it's "running just
as well as it did" seems a bit discordant. But at some
altitude, he's right. It's just as much of a toxic
wasteland as it was before. Every time it crosses my
gaze, I wonder why people still use it ... or bluesky,
or reddit, or <arbitrary-tag>. <br>
<br>
My experiments with Cline have just about ended. I've
decided to avoid it. It works great with Claude (and
some others), but not with gpt-oss or codestral. Both of
those work fine if *I* manage the prompting. Chris also
mentions linux, which I've been using as my daily driver
since ~1995 (?) ... IDK, maybe I was mostly using ultrix
& minix in '95. But sporadically, as with the
Windows 11 update breaking recovery, all the dorks get
all riled up and talk about linux finally being ready
for the desktop. [sigh] <br>
<br>
The fact is that we're no smarter than rats or birds
who'll fill our nests with whatever stupid little shiny
thing the capitalists bother to hype. <br>
<br>
On 11/17/25 8:21 AM, Marcus Daniels wrote: <br>
<br>
<o:p></o:p></p>
<blockquote style="margin-top:5.0pt;margin-bottom:5.0pt">
<p class="MsoNormal">The first example that comes to
mind are malls. Malls aren't needed now so many of
them are closing. <br>
Some people see something bad about that. I see
something good about that: Ruts get erased and new
opportunities arise. Power gets redistributed. <br>
We're between cycles of exploitation and exploration,
and there's some adaptation that is required. <br>
<br>
-----Original Message----- <br>
From: Friam <a
href="mailto:friam-bounces@redfish.com"
moz-do-not-send="true"><friam-bounces@redfish.com></a>
On Behalf Of glen <br>
Sent: Monday, November 17, 2025 8:02 AM <br>
To: <a href="mailto:friam@redfish.com"
moz-do-not-send="true" class="moz-txt-link-freetext">friam@redfish.com</a>
<br>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Fwd: The coming AI crash-worse
than the Dot Com stock collapse? <br>
<br>
But Chris' argument isn't really about AI. Chris is as
guilty of preemptive registration as the others.
Short-term markets distort everything. The task is to
free up the terms coercively bound by the grifters and
marketeers. Once the terms are unbound, we can
discover which formalisms fit and which don't. <br>
<br>
If we're charitable, Chris is right that *something*
is amiss. The disagreement is about *what* is amiss.
Same as it Ever Was. <br>
<br>
On 11/17/25 7:45 AM, Marcus Daniels wrote: <br>
<br>
<o:p></o:p></p>
<blockquote style="margin-top:5.0pt;margin-bottom:5.0pt">
<p class="MsoNormal">But what ARE these investments
right now? It seems to me they are well
established companies: Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, and
Google. NVIDIA has existed and will exist should AI
revenue dry up, just like it outlasted Ethereum
mining. <br>
<br>
The new players aren\u2019t yet public companies.
OpenAI has a longer path to profitability, but
Anthropic (technical users) is already making good
progress @ $7B. AI has already penetrated
education and will likely spread more. People will
become dependent on it like they are dependent on
cars. <br>
<br>
*From: *Friam <a
href="mailto:friam-bounces@redfish.com"
moz-do-not-send="true"><friam-bounces@redfish.com></a>
on behalf of Prof David West <a
href="mailto:profwest@fastmail.fm"
moz-do-not-send="true"><profwest@fastmail.fm></a>
<br>
*Date: *Monday, November 17, 2025 at 5:14<span
style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif">\u202f</span>AM
<br>
*To: <a href="mailto:*friam@redfish.com"
moz-do-not-send="true"
class="moz-txt-link-freetext">*friam@redfish.com</a>
<a href="mailto:friam@redfish.com"
moz-do-not-send="true"><friam@redfish.com></a>
<br>
*Subject: *Re: [FRIAM] Fwd: The coming AI
crash-worse than the Dot Com stock collapse? <br>
<br>
Marcus and Jon are not incorrect. I do see a problem
that they do not, the fact that the vast majority of
users/adopters of AI are dramatically less
technologically compentent than either of these
gentlemen. The manager that is positive that AI will
eliminate most if not all of his human employees,
the student using an LLM to "cheat," the social
media addicts taken with the latest AI fad bots,
etc. etc. almost certainly will become disillusioned
and turn away from AI. <br>
<br>
Perhaps more importantly, all the capitalists who
see immediate\u2014not long term\u2014return on investment are
not going to remain invested. Lot's of other peoples
money will be lost as a byproduct. <br>
<br>
The market of Jon Marcuses is not large enough to
sustain all the current investment. Maybe one large
AI company will survive (ala Amazon that lost tons
of money for a long long time). <br>
<br>
davew <br>
<br>
On Sun, Nov 16, 2025, at 3:51 PM, Jon Zingale wrote:
<br>
<br>
I mostly agree with Marcus' sentiment. The dot
com analogy may be apt, but it also smells too easy
an analog. I find the K-shaped AI adoption to be
bizarre. Personally, I do not believe LLMs, nor any
particular architecture, to be the be-all-end-all. I
suspect we will see a transition away from throwing
money at developing the most general form and a move
toward more idiosyncratic instantiations. For
instance, I continue to think that Deepmind did
meaningful work going the RL path with AlphaGo/Atari
games and it has yet to come to my attention what
happens when Transformers attempt to replicate these
successes. Almost every LLM I have met is really
really bad at go. This said, AI in their current
form, and from this perspective, has been here for a
decade. Some have adopted it and use it to
surprising effect, others treat LLMs as nothing more
than a robust database querying language. What
people do with it and how they perceive it will
undoubtedly have an impact. In the <br>
meantime, I am excited to see what happens as
programmers learn to use formal type theories as
pidgins and LLMs become more amenable to
compositionality. <o:p></o:p></p>
</blockquote>
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<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:12.0pt"><o:p> </o:p></p>
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