[FRIAM] Climate Change
Prof David West
profwest at fastmail.fm
Sun Dec 31 13:44:47 EST 2017
Nick,
forgot a point. "good," as you use it, does not follow from "privilege"
as I use it. 'Good' as in good theory does come from other aspects of
thought like "siimplicity" and "elegance" which are not "scientific,"
"mathematical," "logical," etc.
Pieter's comments brought to mind a "problem" with contemporary physics
- none of the cutting edge theories, e.g. string theory, quantum loop
gravity, cannot possible be "good group think' because they do not
generate falsifiable hypotheses, nor empirical tests. Self consistency
and maybe the aforementioned elegance / simplicity are the, to date,
only ways to evaluate their goodness.
davew
On Sat, Dec 30, 2017, at 10:30 PM, Nick Thompson wrote:
> Hi, Dave,
>
> Hey, thanks for taking the question seriously.
>
> Please see “larding”.
>
> I am still hoping to see you before you leave. I might do coffee
> early Tuesday afternoon.>
> Nick
>
> Nicholas S. Thompson
> Emeritus Professor of Psychology and Biology
> Clark University
> http://home.earthlink.net/~nickthompson/naturaldesigns/
>
> *From:* Friam [mailto:friam-bounces at redfish.com] *On Behalf Of *Prof
> David West *Sent:* Saturday, December 30, 2017 8:36 PM *To:*
> friam at redfish.com *Subject:* Re: [FRIAM] Climate Change>
> In my most humble opinion:
>
> 1) it evolves in real-time, not only when new data is received but
> when new perspectives are offered. No more of this waiting for the
> old generation to die before we can change our minds crap.>
> 2) It privileges no perspective(s), tool(s), or mode(s) of thinking.
> No more, "it isn't real unless it is mathematical, logical, formal,
> grammatical, or model-able."> **[NST==>Now, hang on, big fella! It must privilege SOMETHING, else
> how does it know what “good” is. And somebody might ask us what we
> meant by “real, here. I guess I would prefer to say, ‘No more, “We
> can ignore it if it isn’t ….” ‘ <==nst] **>
> 3) It recognizes that, "it is always more complicated than that."
> **[NST==>Is this the pragmatist assertion that all certainties are
> provisional? There is no sequence of head-flips of a coin long as to
> guarantee that that coin is not fair. <==nst]**> ** **
> **By the way, every time I try to teach myself the periodic table I
> think, this isn’t a very “good” theory. It’s got this crazy
> strangulated hernia and stuff kind of hanging off the end. It just
> cries out to be tidied up. I guess “tidiness” is one of the
> principles you think we are free to ignore? **>
>
> davewest
>
>
>
> On Sat, Dec 30, 2017, at 4:29 PM, Nick Thompson wrote:
>> Pieter,
>>
>> Seeing my question, out in the open, away from the underbrush of my
>> other words, I am inclined to edit it:>>
>> *_What are the properties of good GroupThought: i.e., Group Thought
>> that is likely to survive experience into the deep future?_*>>
>>
>> Nick
>>
>>
>>
>> Nicholas S. Thompson
>> Emeritus Professor of Psychology and Biology
>> Clark University
>> http://home.earthlink.net/~nickthompson/naturaldesigns/
>>
>> *From:* Friam [mailto:friam-bounces at redfish.com] *On Behalf Of
>> *Pieter Steenekamp *Sent:* Saturday, December 30, 2017 1:32 PM *To:*
>> The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group
>> <friam at redfish.com> *Subject:* Re: [FRIAM] Climate Change>>
>> Nick,
>>
>> *_What are the properties of GroupThought that is likely to survive
>> experience into the deep future?_*>>
>> Philip Tetlock has done excellent work answering exactly that
>> question. His view is simply that you can test and develop the
>> ability of individuals and groups to increase the quality of their
>> judgments. (His focus is on forecasting).>>
>> Pieter
>>
>> On 30 December 2017 at 19:20, Nick Thompson
>> <nickthompson at earthlink.net> wrote:>>> Pieter,
>>>
>>> Some months back, at the Friday Meeting of the FRIAM Mother Church
>>> at St. Johns, we had a long discussion about the degree to which ANY
>>> of us ever made judgements in such matters on the basis of EVIDENCE.
>>> I think, just for fun, we spent some time trying to PROVE to one
>>> another, on the basis of raw experience, that New Mexico is not
>>> flat. Harder going than one might suppose. So, I think we
>>> concluded that most of our judgements are based on circles of trust.
>>> So then, the question becomes, what sorts of circles of trust are
>>> evidency. The point is that, whatever one takes to be raw evidence
>>> always comes baled with a set of inferences and assumptions that are
>>> themselves not evidenced but which come by authority and seem
>>> trustworthy.>>>
>>> Your pointing to historical climate anomalies seemed evidency to me
>>> in that it was plausible, I had vaguely heard of those things and
>>> it seemed logically plausible to me that we should be able to
>>> POSTDICT these anomalies from present conditions, if our models are
>>> strong. Thus, in the context of that particular network of trusted
>>> (plausible) propositions, I momentarily joined you in your
>>> skepticism. But none of that is EVIDENCE in the sense that we all
>>> like to use that term.>>>
>>> In short, what is the relation between evidence and trust? Aren’t
>>> we all guilty of group think? Isn’t all science (following Peirce)
>>> a kind of organized groupthink? Isn’t the point NOT that some of us
>>> think independently and some of us are victims of Groupthink, but
>>> rather that** some groups think better than others?** And if so,
>>> why? What are the properties of GroupThought that is likely to
>>> survive experience into the deep future?>>>
>>> Nick
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> Nicholas S. Thompson
>>> Emeritus Professor of Psychology and Biology
>>> Clark University
>>> http://home.earthlink.net/~nickthompson/naturaldesigns/
>>>
>>> *From:* Friam [mailto:friam-bounces at redfish.com] *On Behalf Of
>>> *Pieter Steenekamp *Sent:* Saturday, December 30, 2017 5:27 AM *To:*
>>> The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group
>>> <friam at redfish.com>>>>
>>> *Subject:* Re: [FRIAM] Climate Change
>>>
>>> Glen,
>>>
>>> I'd like to comment on your comment a few posts earlier:
>>> *_"*That* is why I think focusing on the workflows (modeling) is
>>> important. Those of us who distrust the experts bear the burden of
>>> proof. Hence, we have to really dig in and find the flaw in the
>>> experts' thinking. To do otherwise is irrational._**_
>>>
>>> Those of us who can delegate and tend to trust experts only need to
>>> dig in when/if a skeptic produces a defensible counter-argument. If
>>> all a skeptic has to offer are blanket generalizations about human
>>> error or whatnot, then it seems rational to ignore that doubt and go
>>> with the conclusions of the experts.
>>>
>>> If Pieter knows of a specific flaw in the way the experts do their
>>> work, then it would be a valuable contribution."_*>>>
>>> My first reply is that I consider evidence to be much more valuable
>>> than expert's opinions. The IPCC is rich in expert's opinions and
>>> very light on evidence.>>>
>>> The second reply is that I certainly do not claim any explicit fraud
>>> in climate science. But there is evidence of bias in climate science
>>> and "soft punishment" of scientists who disagree with the main
>>> narrative. For example, refer to Judith Curry's experience when she
>>> started to challenge the main climate science narrative. She is a
>>> former Chair of the School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences at
>>> Georgia Tech and blogs at www.judithcurry.com.>>> My point is that although there is no evidence of explicit fraud,
>>> there is evidence of an environment that promotes groupthink.>>>
>>> Combining the two points, with evidence of less temperature increase
>>> than what the models predict and evidence of an environment in
>>> climate science promoting "fitting in" and the absence of healthy
>>> challenging of climate science, my conclusion is to be skeptical
>>> towards main climate science and the IPCC's conclusions.>>>
>>>
>>> On 30 December 2017 at 10:30, Pieter Steenekamp
>>> <pieters at randcontrols.co.za> wrote:>>>> I'm also a big fan of James Lovelock. Interesting that he changed
>>>> his views on climate change dramatically. I refer to an interview
>>>> The Guardian newspaper had with him recently (www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/sep/30/james-lovelock-
>>>> interview-by-end-of-century-robots-will-have-taken-over). I quote:>>>> "What has changed dramatically, however, is his position on climate
>>>> change. He now says: “Anyone who tries to predict more than five to
>>>> 10 years is a bit of an idiot, because so many things can change
>>>> unexpectedly.” ">>>>
>>>>
>>>> On 30 December 2017 at 07:25, Carl Tollander <carl at plektyx.com>
>>>> wrote:>>>>> I would rather,
>>>>> than worry directly about the predictability of the climate
>>>>> models we currently have vs the population/variety/intitial
>>>>> conclusions of researchers from decades ago,>>>>> that we instead consider a range of climate risks, their
>>>>> consequences, our responses/adaptations, and their consequences.>>>>> The latter may prepare us, and it moves that portion of the
>>>>> science along in any case, and may yet eventually show up any
>>>>> deficiencies in the former, but let's get underway.>>>>>
>>>>> Personally, I'm with Lovelock on the large grain future: the
>>>>> window of action gets progressively smaller the longer we delay,
>>>>> and that the world will likely experience>>>>> a "massive reduction in carrying capacity" (that's a euphemism)
>>>>> over the next century. Looking at older cultures and how they
>>>>> survive, mutate, die or flourish in analogous upheavals (e.g. mid-8th-
>>>>> century China or black-death eras in Europe) might be worthwhile
>>>>> at this point. Start by assuming the fan/speed/blades and what/who
>>>>> hits it; what can/should we DO? We should at least perhaps
>>>>> understand when we are waiting too long to begin adaptations that
>>>>> are cheap, safe, economic or politically acceptable, for Nature
>>>>> bats last.>>>>>
>>>>> Hope y'all like mosquitoes.
>>>>>
>>>>> カール
>>>>>
>>>>> On Fri, Dec 29, 2017 at 8:59 PM, Marcus Daniels
>>>>> <marcus at snoutfarm.com> wrote:>>>>>> Nick writes:
>>>>>>
>>>>>> < IF climate models cannot "predict" past anomalies, why should
>>>>>> we trust them now? >>>>>>>
>>>>>> The European weather model assimilates 50+ types of measurements
>>>>>> in space and time, including satellite data. Obviously, these
>>>>>> measurements were not possible except in the last few decades,
>>>>>> never mind in the middle ages or before humans. So whether or
>>>>>> not there were even particular kinds of climate anomalies is a
>>>>>> subject of some debate. For example, were those periods wet or
>>>>>> were they warm? Were they uniform across the global or localized
>>>>>> to certain regions?>>>>>>
>>>>>> Marcus
>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>>> *From:* Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com> on behalf of Nick
>>>>>> Thompson <nickthompson at earthlink.net> *Sent:* Friday, December
>>>>>> 29, 2017 8:27:21 PM *To:* 'The Friday Morning Applied Complexity
>>>>>> Coffee Group'>>>>>>
>>>>>> *Subject:* Re: [FRIAM] Climate Change
>>>>>>
>>>>>> I dunno, I thought Pietr's point was kind of interesting. IF
>>>>>> (and I don't know if the condition is met) ... IF climate models
>>>>>> cannot "predict" past anomalies, why should we trust them now?
>>>>>> Or did somebody already answer that.
>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>>> Nicholas S. Thompson Emeritus Professor of Psychology and Biology
>>>>>> Clark University
>>>>>> http://home.earthlink.net/~nickthompson/naturaldesigns/
>>>>>>
>>>>>> -----Original Message----- From: Friam [mailto:friam-
>>>>>> bounces at redfish.com] On Behalf Of u?l? ? Sent: Friday, December
>>>>>> 29, 2017 5:40 PM To: FriAM <friam at redfish.com> Subject: Re:
>>>>>> [FRIAM] Climate Change
>>>>>>
>>>>>> Well, I mean "models" writ large. Even when gathering and
>>>>>> reducing observational data, there's a workflow for doing that.
>>>>>> That workflow relies on a model of a sort. And integrating
>>>>>> different data sets so that they're commensurate also requires
>>>>>> models. E.g. correlating tree ring based with other climate
>>>>>> data.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> But you're ultimately right. It's not so much about the models
>>>>>> as it is the whole inferential apparatus one *might* use to drive
>>>>>> policy decisions, including huge populations of expert
>>>>>> climatologists. There's probably a correlation to be drawn
>>>>>> between people who distrust government and those who distrust the
>>>>>> "scientific establishment" and/or the "deep state". People tend
>>>>>> to obey/trust whoever they regard as authority figures (e.g.
>>>>>> greater shocks to another if a person in a lab coat tells you to
>>>>>> do it). Those of us who inherently distrust authority figures
>>>>>> have a particular psychological bent and our impulse can go the
>>>>>> other way. It could be because we know how groups can succumb to
>>>>>> bias, or how errors get propagated (e.g. peer review), or
>>>>>> whatever.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> *That* is why I think focusing on the workflows (modeling) is
>>>>>> important. Those of us who distrust the experts bear the burden
>>>>>> of proof. Hence, we have to really dig in and find the flaw in
>>>>>> the experts' thinking. To do otherwise is irrational.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> Those of us who can delegate and tend to trust experts only need
>>>>>> to dig in when/if a skeptic produces a defensible counter-
>>>>>> argument. If all a skeptic has to offer are blanket
>>>>>> generalizations about human error or whatnot, then it seems
>>>>>> rational to ignore that doubt and go with the conclusions of the
>>>>>> experts.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> If Pieter knows of a specific flaw in the way the experts do
>>>>>> their work, then it would be a valuable contribution.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> On 12/29/2017 12:41 PM, Jochen Fromm wrote:
>>>>>> > IMO it is not about models. Models are complicated and
>>>>>> > controversial. Climate change in the artic is a fact, melting
>>>>>> > arctic ice is a fact, melting glaciers is a fact. In the arctic
>>>>>> > regions we can oberve the rising temperatures most clearly.
>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>>> --
>>>>>> ☣ uǝlƃ
>>>>>>
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>>>>>>
>>>>>>
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>>>>>
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>>>
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>> Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
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>
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