[FRIAM] Is the new president mentally ill?

Thu Jan 12 14:12:25 EST 2017

Grant, et al.,
I fully understand concern for the effect that electing Trump might have on
the attitudes of the larger population. I have relatives who are, in fact,
moving from rural areas, where discrimination was already noticeable, to
Canada, in anticipation of increased discrimination (inspired by what, to
them, Trump's victory represents). However, I see that as conceptually
distinct from concern over what Trump himself might do. They are moving due
to concerns about their local neighbors, not about what might happen in the
White House or in Trump Towers, and not because they are afraid of Trump
being kept in proximity to the football.

As for the VP and the cabinet deciding to try to ouster him, that seems
unlikely, unless he becomes considerably more erratic. The "out" provided
by the 25th amendment is clearly intended for someone who becomes unstable
in office. The law requires people the president put in place to declare
that they no longer have faith in him, which implies a fundamental change
in the character of the person whose agenda they agreed to serve.

The amendment is not intended to remove a narcissistic person, who was such
when elected, and is still such in office. If it becomes clear that he is
fundamentally unfit for office, they will turn against him, but "unfit" by
their standards will mean that he consistently disrupts the ability of the
party to get things done, not merely that he gives erratic press
conferences and tweets in the middle of the night. As far as general
decorum, recall that "whip it out like LBJ" is a perfectly valid
expression. As far as mental incompetence, recall that Regan was pretty far
gone by the end of his time, and the people around him kept things running
fairly well. So long as the party can keep things running fairly well
despite Trump's flaws, there won't be a sufficient number of people willing
to sign.

P.S. Out of curiosity, does anyone else know someone actually moving as a
result of the election?

-----------
Eric P. Charles, Ph.D.
Supervisory Survey Statistician
U.S. Marine Corps
<echarles at american.edu>

On Thu, Jan 12, 2017 at 11:57 AM, Grant Holland <grant.holland.sf at gmail.com>
wrote:

> Eric,
>
> It looks to me like you are missing what people like myself and Jochen are
> very afraid of - the extreme marginalization of certain classes of people
> versus other classes of people. And when I say "extreme", I mean extreme.
>
> I grew up in the American South in the 1950s where lynchings of a certain
> class of people still occurred. That culture strictly forbade the pursuit
> of social and economic opportunity for that class, at the threat of
> beatings and death. And it was justified via an appeal to Christianity! For
> example, my mother (I'm a white guy) took over my Sunday school class in
> order to teach us (11 year old kids) that racism is Biblically justified.
> (She failed of course in her attempt at demonstrating that.)
> So I know by experience that the danger of that kind of marginalization is
> real. (The propensity for a return to that world is alive and kicking even
> today in the deep South.) It is palpable and I recognize it in today's
> cultural and political manifestations.
>
> I know that many of my friends who voted for Trump either think that I am
> simply a sore Hillary lover (I'm not really a fan of hers), or that I'm
> senselessly paranoid. But I think my fears are real and even probable. I'm
> way beyond mere disagreement. (That's where I was in 2000 when W won.)
>
> And I do not think that Jochen's fears are unjustified. Listen to him. You
> don't have to agree, but listen. He comes from a place that is fresh with
> the experience, and the consequences, of the real life manifestations of
> these phenomena. It happened, and Jochen knows what the tracks of that
> animal look like.
>
> Thanks for listening to me!
> Grant
>
>
> On 1/12/17 6:07 AM, Eric Charles wrote:
>
> The comparison of Meryl Streep to Klemperer or von Galen seems more
> baffling to me than the original conversation. As some on social media have
> been pointing out, she stood in a room full of like minded people, and
> spoke their collective mind, with no risk to her career or her person. She
> didn't say anything not being chanted from the rooftops by hundreds of
> thousands of other people, and said publically, by prominent celebrities
> and members of the press every day.
>
> Are we really worried Meryl will be disappeared in the coming weeks, and
> gassed? Are we worried she will be hit with false charges, arrested without
> trial, and have her properties become forfeit to the state? Are we even
> worried she might be blacklisted and never act again? And even if she did,
> are we worried she won't be able to get by in this world and support her
> family with the $75 million she already has? Those are honest questions.
>
> Maybe I'm very confused about what "courageous" means. I would consider
> the average BLM marcher, or women's march participant, more courageous.
> They could be attacked by police or counter protesters, they could be
> arrested, they could be fired from their jobs, they could become ostracized
> by their communities, etc. Heck, Jill Stein got herself arrested at
> Standing Rock and hardly anyone seemed to notice. I'm not saying Meryl
> didn't give a good speech, or that it was unimportant, but I honestly
> wonder what risk we really think she faces as a result of that speech,
> which leads us to dub her act so courageous, and to compare it to the
> actions of the other individuals mentioned.
>
>
>
> -----------
> Eric P. Charles, Ph.D.
> Supervisory Survey Statistician
> U.S. Marine Corps
>
> On Thu, Jan 12, 2017 at 2:24 AM, Jochen Fromm <jofr at cas-group.net> wrote:
>
>> Meryl Streep reminds me of Clemens August Graf von Galen, who was one of
>> the few bishops that had the courage to criticize the Nazi regime. He was a
>> bishop in my hometown Münster near the Dutch border. In his sermons he
>> criticized that the Nazis were killing innocent disabled people. The
>> program was named T4. The Nazis let him live because he was too popular
>> among the people.
>> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clemens_August_Graf_von_Galen
>>
>> Many other priests and bishops were imprisoned by the Gestapo  (the
>> secret state police) in concentration camps and died. In St. Hedwig's
>> cathedral in Berlin many of those are mentioned on memorial plagues. While
>> it may be futile to resist, those who have the courage to do it are not
>> forgotten.
>>
>> It can also help to document the things that are unfolding, the
>> violations of human rights, the corruption, and the injustice. In Dresden
>> there was a Jewish professor Victor Klemperer who covered the actions of
>> the Nazi regime in his diaries and journals. He was an important witness of
>> all the injustice that happened.
>> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Victor_Klemperer
>>
>> -J.
>>
>>
>> -------- Original message --------
>> From: glen ☣ <gepropella at gmail.com>
>> Date: 1/12/17 02:07 (GMT+01:00)
>> To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <friam at redfish.com>
>>
>> Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Is the new president mentally ill?
>>
>>
>> But the question is what actions are guided by remote diagnosis?  I admit
>> that I hope high visibility shaming like that from Streep, when added to
>> the rest of the stress he will be / has been under, will make him go away.
>> But it's not likely for the same reasons Steve cites that blame and stigma
>> won't really work on him.
>>
>> I suppose if we could really confirm that he's a particular type of
>> narcissist, then we could build models of what he may or may not do and
>> choose actions based on their expected efficacy.  But because, almost by
>> definition, everyone who willingly runs for President is a narcissist of
>> some sort or other and to differing extent, that diagnosis isn't helpful.
>>
>> Listening to the confirmation hearings is more helpful, I think.  Take
>> note of all the (many) issues where Trump and his appointees express
>> diametrically opposite positions.  Focus on those fissures.  At best, his
>> administration will shatter.  At worst, the more distance you can put
>> between the incompetent Cheeto and the competent people surrounding him,
>> the more likely we'll end up with a Bush2 or a late-stage-Reagan ... maybe
>> not good, but not catastrophic.
>>
>> On 01/11/2017 03:34 PM, Jochen Fromm wrote:
>> > Eric I believe you are wrong if you believe you can have a narcissistic
>> person on your site. A narcissist cares only for himself. The policy of
>> Trump boils down to "I'm great and you're not unless you are like me,
>> myself and I, you loser". There is no way how he can make the country great
>> again. As Paul Krugman said America will turn into some form of
>> authoritarianism, into a Trumpistan nightmare at best.
>> > Mr. Trump does not only have a brand, he *is* a brand, a brand that
>> says "I'm great". If you stay in this Trump hotel you are great. If you
>> play on this Trump golf course you are great, too. But it is just a facade.
>> It is based on lies, and there is nothing behind the shiny facade except
>> emptiness. Therefore he seems to hit back immediately if someone damages
>> his image and his brand, because he ceases to exist if his image is
>> destroyed. He and his brand have become undistinguishable.
>> > Marketing is no way to make America great again, Google has already an
>> OS for ads, and the American corporations excel in marketing, especially
>> the fast food chains. What will he do, build a Trump hotel in every city, a
>> Trump golf course in every national park? This would be a total Trumpistan
>> nightmare. Better than the nuclear apocalypse, but who would want such a
>> future...
>>
>>
>> --
>> ☣ glen
>>
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>
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