[FRIAM] How we can make the COUNTRY great again

[Nick Thompson]

Hi, Owen, 

 

I have a little knowledge about weather, and, as we all know, a little knowledge is a very dangerous thing.  To give us some facts to work with, I have linked you to an upper air plot <http://weather.unisys.com/upper_air/skew/ua_sound.php?type=no&city=kabq&region=sw&t=cur&expanddiv=hide_bar>  generated by a balloon released from east of Albuquerque earlier today.  Now these plots are baffling even to experts, but some things are evident, even to us mortals.  

 

First notice the bright jiggly lines coming up from the center of the x axis.  Notice that they take a sharp right turn about 12km (around 45kft). That’s the beginning of the stratosphere.  The point where the right turns occur, is called the “thermopause”.  At the thermopause, temperatures stop falling with respect to altitude and begin to rise again.  If you brought the gasses at that level down to sea level, they would actually be quite hot.   Now look over at the wind barbs on the right.  The balloon passes on through the thermopause and continues to rise to the 100 mb level, over 50kft.  At that altitude, only about ten percent of the atmosphere remains above. The motion of that atmosphere is from the NW at 30 knots, something like 35 mph, I think  (Each feather on the wind barb represents ten mph.)  

 

Now here is where I reached the limit of my knowledge and perhaps steered you wrong.   The balloon does not reach 65kft.  So, I suppose it is possible that what remains of the atmosphere is stationary at that altitude.  There is certainly no evidence of any “jet stream” at that altitude, so my taunting you with 120 kt jet streams was super unfair.  But I cannot think of any reason why, given that we are already through the thermopause, that things would change all that much in the next 15,000 feet.  So, if such a balloon were up there today, to stay in place, it would have to have some way to resist a 30 kt wind.  

 

I am puzzled by other aspects of your account.  Wouldn’t a super pressurized balloon sink like a rock at that altitude?  Others may dope slap me at this point (Roger is often a good candidate for administering dope slaps when I talk about weather), but I am guessing that the real issue is finding with a skin material that is so light that it doesn’t weigh the balloon down but so strong that it does not disintegrate as it expands.  

 

By the way, if you look at the windbarbs you can see the high altitude winds over ABQ.  Bold triangular ‘feathers’ mean a wind speed of 50 mph or greater.  So, the wind just below the thermopause tops out at 50 kts.  Not much of a jet stream, because the Jetstream has migrated south and east in the last few days.  See 100 mb level map <http://weather.unisys.com/upper_air/ua_man.php?plot=100&inv=0&t=cur&expanddiv=hide_bar> .  It’s blowing pretty good over Florida, nearly a hundred knots.   So, if those winds continue up to 65kft, a balloon would have to pedal like an energizer bunny or be a hundred miles down wind for every hour it was up there.   

 

I trust I have done due penance. 

 

Nick 

 

 

 

 

 

Nicholas S. Thompson

Emeritus Professor of Psychology and Biology

Clark University

http://home.earthlink.net/~nickthompson/naturaldesigns/

 

From: Friam [mailto:friam-bounces at redfish.com] On Behalf Of Owen Densmore
Sent: Monday, January 30, 2017 9:56 AM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <friam at redfish.com>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] How we can make the COUNTRY great again

 

​

I would not like to be the helium drone trying to stay in one spot in a 120 knot jet stream,

 

Nick

 

Hi Nick. ​The FAQ had a lot of interesting answers. Here's the one I also had about staying in one place.​ My bet is the "weather" up there may be more manageable for the flock?

 

​Project Loon is a global network of high altitude balloons. The balloons ascend like weather balloons until they reach the stratosphere, where they sail at an altitude of roughly 20 km (65,000 ft), safely above the altitudes used for aviation. While weather balloons burst after only a few hours in the air, Loon balloons are superpressured, allowing them to last much longer. Loon balloons are also unique in that they can sail the wind to travel where they need to go, they can coordinate with other balloons as a flock, and their electronics are entirely solar powered.

 

   -- Owen

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