[FRIAM] RedState/BlueState OneState/TwoState

Wed Apr 8 18:19:50 EDT 2020

Nick, hi,

Ah, the sieve of my head.  As in my technical work, I am browsing a variety of stuff, remembering conclusions I find interesting, but not keeping good track of sources.  Here is what I can provide off-the-cuff, and a tiny bit on searching.

In Asia, the four very good responses have been Taiwan, Singapore, Hong Kong, and S. Korea.  One can see statistics on their histories — thus outcomes but without explanations of methods — at both of 
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ <https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/>
https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus <https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus>
which I realize have been offered on FRIAM on several occasions.

Here is one article that overlaps with content I know I have read, although at relatively shallow descriptive depth:
https://www.cfr.org/in-brief/can-us-emulate-asias-coronavirus-response <https://www.cfr.org/in-brief/can-us-emulate-asias-coronavirus-response>
I find this and other similar links by doing a google search on the string
"coronavirus responses taiwan singapore hong kong s. korea"

Although S. Korea had bad case growth early, which showed up as large numbers thoroughout the course, a lot of that seems to have been because they had this huge burst of early cases from the megachurch in Daegu, before they realized it was in the country.  Probably also a fair number of travel-related spread too, though I haven’t seen a statistical analysis pertinent to that question.  

I seem to remember having read, somewhere, that there was informal gossip in the Chinese-language social mediasphere, about the novel pneumonia during the early weeks of December when China was still trying to squelch it.  Because the Singaporeans have access to that and are Chinese readers, they spotted right away that there was a likely problem, and I think I recall that they were the first to put a travel ban in place from China, back in the very earliest weeks when such a ban actually did make a significant dent in cases coming in through the border.  I have always wondered what the US state department under Obama, which of course must have access to data-sharing with speakers of every major language world-wide, would have done if their Chinese-language contacts had sent word that there was a potential major hazard.  We would not have had a way to know in real-time, but years later somebody would have written a memoir telling what warnings were circulating within the government at what times.

I think.I saw an NYT article perhaps last week or the week before on various Asian enforcement responses.  I seem to remember something about a $30k fine to a Taiwanese man who skipped quarantine and went to a bar, and something about Singaporean police going to pick up a minor who skipped quarantine and went somewhere.  In the same article, was it Singapore that used ankle bracelets to track quarantinees?  There have also been numerous reports about social media apps requiring reporting of people’s conditions, ne more than one of those countries.  Some commenter on one of the NYT articles, a US expat in Korea, described the follow-up he has experienced as a mandatory-quarantined traveler.  It sounded typically Korean-official: polite, no-nonsense, and 100%-committed. 

In the West, Iceland has probably been best at case tracking and very early quarantine (so that many who develop symptoms are already quarantined before they do); I think I saw an article on pbs on that within the last week, because I remember listening to the distinctiveness of the Icelanders’ accent versus those of Norwegians, Swedes, or Danes.  I am glad Glen found the link on German effectiveness; there have also been two articles (perhaps two slightly updated versions with overlapping content) on the NYT.  I too had wondered.  Although Germany has not been good at limiting cases, in part because they had a huge burst of younger infected skiers from Austria or Italy, they have been excellent at limiting mortality.  I think not quite as low as S. Korea, but within the statistical estimation errors of how many asymptomatic infecteds there are, and also within variations in age structure of those who got sick.

Anyway, sorry I can’t send a better reference list, but there are probably several useful articles on the google search response above.

Be well,

Eric

> On Apr 9, 2020, at 3:20 AM, <thompnickson2 at gmail.com> <thompnickson2 at gmail.com> wrote:
> 
> Hi, Eric 
>  
> Taiwan BETTER than China!?  That’s something, isn’t it?  Isn’t there some real hope in that? 
>  
> Where do I go to learn in detail about Taiwan’s response. 
>  
> Nick 
>  
> Nicholas Thompson
> Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology
> Clark University
> ThompNickSon2 at gmail.com <mailto:ThompNickSon2 at gmail.com>
> https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/ <https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/>
>  
>  
> From: Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com <mailto:friam-bounces at redfish.com>> On Behalf Of David Eric Smith
> Sent: Tuesday, April 7, 2020 11:53 PM
> To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <friam at redfish.com <mailto:friam at redfish.com>>
> Subject: Re: [FRIAM] RedState/BlueState OneState/TwoState
>  
>> Has china actually eliminated the virus from the population and the are merely putting out sparks that have blown in from other places?  
>  
> I would bet very high odds that is not the case.
>  
> They have probably greatly reduced the caseload.  Friends there say they are rebuilding daily activities (up in Beijing, which was not by far the hardest hit) slowly, carefully, and incrementally.  But not by any stretch is life normal, or expected to revert to normal in any foreseeable future.
>  
> There was an NYT piece a few days ago saying that the intelligence dept. is trying to get accurate case numbers because they don’t believe the central government is reporting either honestly or accurately.  That seems a decent bet.  And to the extent that this info is not coming from trump stooges at the top, but being leaked from somewhere in the middle ranks, it is probably coming from committed professionals who are concerned with what is true.
>  
> My guess is that the forensics of what is going on in China will take a long time to perform, and probably important information will be suppressed until it can be lost forever.  So for some of it ignoramus et ignoramibus.
>  
> All that said, the clamp-down was impressive, and probably fairly effective.  Not a gold standard like Taiwan, but better than any of the major countries in the west, and with a much larger population.
>  
> Eric
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