[FRIAM] covid19.healthdata.org

[uǝlƃ ☣]

OK. This is definitely a different message from what I thought you said. I thought you were saying their estimates were optimistic. And since their estimates include their uncertainty bands, that includes not peaking till much later than what their chart might suggest, maybe 4.5k deaths PER DAY at the peak,  125k dead overall, etc. If we consider the outside of their uncertainty, that's not optimistic at all.

You can go back to MA right now. And if you're super careful, you can most likely do it without getting infected. So, your "pessimism" is not about the peak, total bed availability, or whatever. Your pessimism seems to have more to do with *you* (and your immediate clique). That you could go ahead and do what you need to do now, but won't, isn't pessimism about these estimates. It's fear for your own condition. That's understandable, of course, but not really about this estimate or its methods.


On 4/9/20 2:49 PM, thompnickson2 at gmail.com wrote:
> Perhaps they seem optimistic to me only because mine have been so pessimistic.  I have assumed that I am immobilized here in Santa Fe for the next year.  I even put up a list on my wall of 365 days and have been crossing them off, one by one.  What I see on that site suggests to me that I might actually get  to  my garden in Massachusetts by early June.  I just heard an interview with Daniel Kahneman (who is in my age range) who says essentially that he expects to stay home for the rest of his life because of the disease.  I just heard from Dave West (He's fine!) who decided to make a run for home from Amsterdam and essentially had a 747 to himself.  Perhaps now is exactly the time to make a run for MA.  
> 
> So, you see, my thinking about all of this is deranged and intensified by its personal implications.  So perhaps I ought to be keeping my thoughts to myself.  I have my favorite dog in this fight; too much skin in this game.  
> 
> My pessimistic  view is that until we are back to contact tracing levels everybody should stay home.  Others seem to imagine essentially eliminating the disease from the population by social distancing in the next month. and then going back pretty much to business as usual.  I WANT those "others" to be right, but I am having a hard time selling it to myself.  At the minimum, any restarting would require public health departments to have the power to snatch contacts off the street, throw them in sterilized vans, and cart them off to motels to watch Fox News for two weeks.  Apparently, people boarding airplanes in Wuhan, are doing so in hazmat gear.  I just don't see that happening, here.  Even at the current "peak", SW airlines is not screening passengers or taking temps at the gate.  
> 
> I read some where that Trump is losing a Billion dollars (a month? from the crisis.  Hey, every cloud has a silver lining. 


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