[FRIAM] covid19.healthdata.org

[George Duncan]

I suggest reading Gentleman in Moscow. Learn how to make the best of house
(in this case hotel) arrest over a super long period of time.

On Thu, Apr 9, 2020 at 5:07 PM uǝlƃ ☣ <gepropella at gmail.com> wrote:

> I don't think you're missing anything. But the numbers can't be trusted,
> optimistically or pessimistically. For example, we don't know how many
> asymptomatic people are really presymptomatic. If 25-50% of the
> tested/confirmed cases are thought to be asymptomatic, and that amount
> translates into the general population, then the number is larger than
> 2m/7.5b. Or, even if those we labelled asymptomatic were presymptomatic,
> the 80% mild symptom number will rise above 80%.
>
> Those of us considering never shaking hands again in our lifetime, or
> never leaving home again, or whatever insane extreme are _catastrophizing_.
> It's a sign of low tolerance for ambiguity ... which I guess is typical for
> dorks like us ... but we should at least recognize it in ourselves.
>
> My prescription for Nick is to turn off the internet, smoke a little weed,
> and start reading a big fat novel. 8^)
>
>
> On 4/9/20 3:34 PM, Gary Schiltz wrote:
> > From what I've read, it seems to me that if the only way for the virus
> to be stopped is for enough people to become immune that it runs out of
> hosts in which to reproduce. Immunity could develop in at least three ways:
> a) be vaccinated (probably 2+ years off); b) have natural immunity
> (probably a low percentage, besides who wants to risk it?); or c) be
> infected and recover (thus *presumably* making them immune).The only
> purpose of flattening the curve is to try to reduce mortality (and maybe
> even reduce the permanent damage done to the body) by keeping the medical
> systems from becoming overwhelmed. Given how few people have been infected
> and then either died or recovered (fewer than 2 million infected out of 7.5
> billion, i.e. 0.026%), we could repeat this curve flattening exercise a
> thousand times before it would burn itself out.
> >
> > Seems to me we have to either wait for a vaccine, or resign ourselves to
> the fact that we are going to get infected. Or just stay out in the cloud
> forest like I'm doing and never see anyone face to face again. Am I missing
> something?
>
>
> --
> ☣ uǝlƃ
>
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-- 
George Duncan
Emeritus Professor of Statistics, Carnegie Mellon University
georgeduncanart.com
See posts on Facebook, Twitter, and Instagram
Land: (505) 983-6895
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My art theme: Dynamic exposition of the tension between matrix order and
luminous chaos.

"Attempt what is not certain. Certainty may or may not come later. It may
then be a valuable delusion."
>From "Notes to myself on beginning a painting" by Richard Diebenkorn.

"It's that knife-edge of uncertainty where we come alive to our truest
power." Joanna Macy.
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