[FRIAM] anthropological observations

[uǝlƃ ☣]

Again, though, you seem to be allowing your metaphor to run away with you. When someone who does quantitative modeling says "expected value", they do NOT mean what the layperson means when they say "I expect X". We can pick apart your statement and accuse you of an ambiguity fallacy if we want.

Your first use of "expected value" relies on the jargonal definition. Then you switcheroo on us and your 2nd use of "I expect that" relies on the vernacular concept. Up to this point, we can give you the benefit of the doubt. We all munge things a bit when talking/thinking. But *then*, on your 3rd use of "what he expected", you explicitly switched the meaning from jargon to vernacular.

I don't think you do this on purpose. (If you do, I laud you as a fellow troll! >8^) I think it's  an artifact of your being a "metaphorical thinker", whatever that means.

FWIW, I only had to pull a little on the Sabine Hossenfelder thread to find that she tweeted this, as well:

Embracing the Uncertainties
While the unknowns about coronavirus abound, a new study finds we ‘can handle the truth.’
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/07/science/coronavirus-uncertainty-scientific-trust.html?smid=tw-share

The effects of communicating uncertainty on public trust in facts and numbers
https://www.pnas.org/content/117/14/7672.abstract

If they're right, then the right-leaning local media might band together with the clickbaity national media and give it to us straight ... or they might simply skew their "expected value" reporting to continue serving their politics. Pfft.


On 4/17/20 2:58 PM, thompnickson2 at gmail.com wrote:
> If expert X tells me that the expected value of variable A is K, then, when it's all over and the data are in, and A did not equal K, I expect that expert to admit that /what he expected did not happen./  Only after that confession has been made, should a conversation begin about whether the expert’s prediction process was faulted or not.  It seems to me that the shaded area is part of that second conversation. 

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☣ uǝlƃ