[FRIAM] Local News not so good

[thompnickson2 at gmail.com]

Glen, 

But why would the people of Thurston be any less Easter Bumpy than the people of Santa Fe?  Not good for the Easter Bump Theory.  

Is there any evidence of a Lockdown Bounce?  I keep seeing in tracings a flattening and then about a week later a new rise and then finally a long slope down.  Does that seem familiar to you? 


By the way, Glen, those are some handsome charts.  

Nick 

Nicholas Thompson
Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology
Clark University
ThompNickSon2 at gmail.com
https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/
 


-----Original Message-----
From: Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com> On Behalf Of u?l? ?
Sent: Thursday, April 23, 2020 1:45 PM
To: FriAM <friam at redfish.com>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Local News not so good

So, I've been monitoring both the NYT and JHU data pretty much every day. But I like looking at raw data more than fits (which are just another type of visualization [ptouie]). But as a slight capitulation to the hunt for an Easter bump, I added a spline to my regular plots. Maybe this will help spot any bumps? (I'm still more interested in DeKalb county, if Kemp insists on relaxing the closures this weekend.)


On 4/23/20 8:41 AM, uǝlƃ ☣ wrote:
> Bah! The rt.live people must have been listening to our conversation. 8^) We'll have to look elsewhere for the Easter bump.
> 
> https://rt.live/
>> Model Updates
>>
>>     Based on suggestions and ideas from the community, we made a major model update on 4/23. The new version of this model accounts for variation in serial interval and delay between onset of symptoms and a positive test. Because of these changes, it is also more robust to large changes in reported tests. However, this also means that Rt will be far less variable day-to-day than the previous model.
> 
> 

-- 
☣ uǝlƃ