[FRIAM] Bayes Rules and Base Rates Count

[George Duncan]

You indeed are indeed correct, Tom. That is the fundamental question for
Bayesian applications. For a time it was considered to be an impossible
hurdle that blocked Bayesian statistical analysis. Today there are a
variety of conceptualizations that have changed that view, and so Bayes
Rules!

George Duncan
Emeritus Professor of Statistics, Carnegie Mellon University
georgeduncanart.com
See posts on Facebook, Twitter, and Instagram
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My art theme: Dynamic exposition of the tension between matrix order and
luminous chaos.

"Attempt what is not certain. Certainty may or may not come later. It may
then be a valuable delusion."
>From "Notes to myself on beginning a painting" by Richard Diebenkorn.

"It's that knife-edge of uncertainty where we come alive to our truest
power." Joanna Macy.




On Thu, Apr 30, 2020 at 5:40 PM Tom Johnson <tom at jtjohnson.com> wrote:

> Good explanation.  But it always comes back to the basic question: What
> are the methods and data informing our assumptions about prevalence, at
> this moment, in a population?  Or am I wrong?
> Tom
>
>
> ============================================
> Tom Johnson - tom at jtjohnson.com
> Institute for Analytic Journalism   --     Santa Fe, NM USA
> 505.577.6482(c)                                    505.473.9646(h)
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>
> ============================================
>
>
> On Wed, Apr 29, 2020 at 4:03 PM George Duncan <gtduncan at gmail.com> wrote:
>
>> Here's an easy numerical example of why conditional probabilities as
>> employed in Bayes Rule are important:
>> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x5FfTjJtV3E&feature=share
>> <https://nam05.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.youtube.com%2Fwatch%3Fv%3Dx5FfTjJtV3E%26feature%3Dshare&data=02%7C01%7Ckelsey%40edc.pitt.edu%7Cd4539c648e544adc9a3608d7ec422ca0%7C9ef9f489e0a04eeb87cc3a526112fd0d%7C1%7C1%7C637237641268432573&sdata=sSVCqTqIkvlnbjX%2BoUoUxdPdt%2FolTIHHw%2FZiJzCgCMk%3D&reserved=0>
>>
>>
>> George Duncan
>> Emeritus Professor of Statistics, Carnegie Mellon University
>> georgeduncanart.com
>> See posts on Facebook, Twitter, and Instagram
>> Land: (505) 983-6895
>> Mobile: (505) 469-4671
>>
>> My art theme: Dynamic exposition of the tension between matrix order and
>> luminous chaos.
>>
>> "Attempt what is not certain. Certainty may or may not come later. It may
>> then be a valuable delusion."
>> From "Notes to myself on beginning a painting" by Richard Diebenkorn.
>>
>> "It's that knife-edge of uncertainty where we come alive to our truest
>> power." Joanna Macy.
>>
>>
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