[FRIAM] Coronavirus vs Flu

[George Duncan]

"I think it is likely we'll see a global pandemic," Harvard T.H. Chan
School of Public Health professor Marc Lipsitch told the Journal. "If a
pandemic happens, 40% to 70% of people worldwide are likely to be infected
in the coming year.

My son-in-law who is an infectious disease doc at Harvard Medical School
says Marc Lipsitch is the world-leading authority on pandemics.

If Lipsitch is right we are in the early stages of Covid-19 and so
comparisons with current levels of the flu are irrelevant.

George Duncan
Emeritus Professor of Statistics, Carnegie Mellon University
georgeduncanart.com
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My art theme: Dynamic exposition of the tension between matrix order and
luminous chaos.

"Attempt what is not certain. Certainty may or may not come later. It may
then be a valuable delusion."
>From "Notes to myself on beginning a painting" by Richard Diebenkorn.

"It's that knife-edge of uncertainty where we come alive to our truest
power." Joanna Macy.




On Sat, Feb 15, 2020 at 10:21 AM Owen Densmore <owen at backspaces.net> wrote:

> I'm reading an NYTimes piece
> <https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/13/world/asia/coronavirus-risk-interpreter.html>
> on the Coronavirus containing:
>
> But one of the attendees, a public health student, had had enough.
> Exasperated, she rattled off a set of statistics.
>
> The virus had killed about 1,100 worldwide and infected around a dozen in
> the United States. Alarming, but a much more common illness, influenza,
> kills about 400,000 people every year, including 34,200 Americans last flu
> season and 61,099 the year before.
>
>
> I had looked that up previously and was also puzzled .. Flu is way more
> deadly .. those numbers are staggering.
>
> The article was less on the mortality rates etc but on:
>     Coronavirus ‘Hits All the Hot Buttons’ for How We Misjudge Risk
> .. and goes on to explain the lopsided response.
>
> BTW: the Flu numbers were a wakeup call! I hope we all have one!
>
>    -- Owen
>
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