[FRIAM] climate change questions

Wed Jan 1 13:24:35 EST 2020

What scares me is recent assertions that we have passed the tipping point
and there is nothing we can do about it.  I have no references.

Frank

-----------------------------------
Frank Wimberly

My memoir:
https://www.amazon.com/author/frankwimberly

My scientific publications:
https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Frank_Wimberly2

Phone (505) 670-9918

On Wed, Jan 1, 2020, 11:09 AM <thompnickson2 at gmail.com> wrote:

> Dave,
>
> I like these questions, and I think The Congregation should take them as a
> challenge.
>
> What can we-all, we who have long association, and a generalized (if
> somewhat guarded) respect, come to agree upon with respect to climate
> change
> and human activity?  By what process, with what attitudes, by what rules of
> engagement, are we likely to arrive at ANY truth of that matter.  Because,
> if we, here, cannot agree on some matters, agreement would seem to be
> beyond
> human reach.
>
> So, for starters, I find I am inclined to disagree with your facts as
> stated.  They seem to assert that Things (whatever Things are) are not as
> bad as they were predicted to be.  Yet, I find, I am inclined to believe
> that in fact Things are worse.  The only specific data I feel I have been
> exposed to recently is ocean surface rise and glacial melting.  But even
> there, I would be hard pressed to match your specific references to any of
> my own.  So, I guess the conclusion is, I disagree, but I don't know what I
> am talking about.  Ugh!
>
> I could (after some labor) cite data to support the following concern:
> what
> we should be watching out for, perhaps more than long term climate warming,
> is increases in year-to-year climate variability.  You can grow rape seed
> in
> Canada and maize in the US, and as the climate alters, the bands of climate
> supporting these two crops will move north.  But what happens if one year
> the climate demands one crop and the next the other?  And the switch from
> one to the other is entirely unpredictable.  Anybody who plants a garden
> knows that only two dates have a tremendous effect on the productivity of
> your garden: first frost and last frost.  The average frost free period in
> my garden in Ma 135 days or so, but only a few miles away, it is as short
> as
> 90.  And while we have never had a 90 day frost year, we have had last
> frost
> dates in June and first frost dates in early September.  It would take a
> very small year-to-year increase in variability to turn my garden from
> something that could support life for a year in New England into a 30 x 50
> wasteplot.
>
> I think I could show you that the period in which we live, the Holocene, is
> a period of remarkably low, year-to-year, variation in climate VARIABILITY.
> I think I could convince you that everything that has occurred in the last
> ten thousand years by way of civilization is entirely dependent  on that
> anomalous stability.  The neanderthals were not too stupid to do
> agriculture; the climate of the Pleistocene would not permit it.  The whole
> idea of nation states depends on the idea that one can make more or less
> the
> same kind of living by staying more or less in the same place and doing
> more
> or less the same thing.  A return to Pleistocene year-to-year variation
> would obliterate that possibility.
>
> If then, I could convince you, that --quite apart from Global Warming-- we
> are seeing an increase in climate variability, then, by God, I think I
> could
> scare the Living Crap out of you.
>
> The only question is whether we have the energy and sitzfleisch to do it,
> and some way to keep our correspondence is order so that it's value could
> be
> harvested for the long run.
>
> Happy New Year!
>
> Nick
>
> Nicholas Thompson
> Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology
> Clark University
> ThompNickSon2 at gmail.com
> https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/
>
>
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com> On Behalf Of Prof David West
> Sent: Wednesday, January 1, 2020 9:45 AM
> To: friam at redfish.com
> Subject: [FRIAM] climate change questions
>
> Questions,  that do NOT, in any manner or form deny the reality of climate
> change.
>
> In 1990, citing the "best scientific models available" stated that because
> of carbon dioxide emissions, the Earth would warm by an average of 3
> degrees
> Fahrenheit and the U.S. as the largest producer, by an average of 6 degrees
> Fahrenheit by 2020.
>
> The UN IPCC report of the same year predicted a range of temperature
> increases ranging from 1-5 degrees F, with the most likely expectations
> being 3-5 by the year 2020.
>
> The current report predicts a rise of 2-5 degrees by 2100.
>
> The New York Times, CNN, and the President of Exxon USA predicted the end
> of
> domestic oil and gas reserves by 2020.
>
> The undisputed rise in Earth (and US) temperature as of 2020 is 1 degree.
>
> Exactly how does one go about constructing a reasoned, and accurate,
> argument for the need to address climate change in the context of badly
> incorrect predictions, grounded in the best available scientific models,
> and
> over-hyped "disaster scenarios" promulgated by those with political or
> simply "circulation" motives.
>
> In light of this context of "error" and "hype," is it fair to tar everyone
> expressing questions or doubts with the same "deny-er" brush?
>
> Is it possible to constructively criticize either the models or the
> proposed
> "solutions" without being dismissed as a troglodyte "deny-er?"
>
> Is there a way to evaluate a spectrum of means (eliminating coal to carbon
> scrubbers to ...) along with analyses of cost/benefit ratios, human
> socio-economic impact, etc. and compare them?
>
> Is there more than one strategy for getting out of this mess; and if so,
> how
> do we decide (and/or construct a blend) on one that will optimize our
> chances?
>
> davew
>
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