[FRIAM] climate change questions

[Michael Orshan]

Hi:

Mostly I monitor the group, but today since I'm very much involved in
solving the warming issue, I'll offer my argument.  First, let's avoid the
estimates and look at what is happening.  Most agree that storms,
earthquakes, fires, and other natural disasters are increasing.  Let's just
focus on this and agree this is caused by new weather.  In the past five or
six years we have all seen what has happened in Europe with 2M mostly
Syrian refugees.  Turkey because a policial hot plate, so did Greece, then
France, Germany and Britain saw the rise in rightist anti-immigration
governments.  Even Trump can be seen as an anti-immigration government.
What happens when the rate of these disasters increase?  We are expecting a
huge rise in climate refugees.  In less than ten years we will see 5M to
20M a year.  Whatever that number turns out to be, it is a huge multiple of
the Syrian immigration.  Remember we have lived through this in Santa Fe
with the influx from Katrina and that was maybe 15,000 or so.  Even
California with the Camp Fire victims are living through 20 to 30,000
people who lost homes and it has affected the local communities.  So, what
does the world do?

We need to start looking at solutions fast.  Let's work on limiting carbon
in the atmosphere, it is one of the few options we have.  Right now it is
the warming that is most critical to the world.  I saw the published stats
in the post.  Many problems happen during warming, the last problem happens
at an ocean increase of 6C.  Then rain stops.

Increasing the population of trees, limiting the cattle sizes, and such
solutions need to start soon.  If you look for a tipping point I believe it
is when costs become irrelevant.  Then we are into desperation, like a real
war.  We need to move forward before we reach this stage.

Mike Orshan
GM of Arctech Solar

On Wed, Jan 1, 2020 at 4:45 PM Prof David West <profwest at fastmail.fm> wrote:

> Questions,  that do NOT, in any manner or form deny the reality of climate
> change.
>
> In 1990, citing the "best scientific models available" stated that because
> of carbon dioxide emissions, the Earth would warm by an average of 3
> degrees Fahrenheit and the U.S. as the largest producer, by an average of 6
> degrees Fahrenheit by 2020.
>
> The UN IPCC report of the same year predicted a range of temperature
> increases ranging from 1-5 degrees F, with the most likely expectations
> being 3-5 by the year 2020.
>
> The current report predicts a rise of 2-5 degrees by 2100.
>
> The New York Times, CNN, and the President of Exxon USA predicted the end
> of domestic oil and gas reserves by 2020.
>
> The undisputed rise in Earth (and US) temperature as of 2020 is 1 degree.
>
> Exactly how does one go about constructing a reasoned, and accurate,
> argument for the need to address climate change in the context of badly
> incorrect predictions, grounded in the best available scientific models,
> and over-hyped "disaster scenarios" promulgated by those with political or
> simply "circulation" motives.
>
> In light of this context of "error" and "hype," is it fair to tar everyone
> expressing questions or doubts with the same "deny-er" brush?
>
> Is it possible to constructively criticize either the models or the
> proposed "solutions" without being dismissed as a troglodyte "deny-er?"
>
> Is there a way to evaluate a spectrum of means (eliminating coal to carbon
> scrubbers to ...) along with analyses of cost/benefit ratios, human
> socio-economic impact, etc. and compare them?
>
> Is there more than one strategy for getting out of this mess; and if so,
> how do we decide (and/or construct a blend) on one that will optimize our
> chances?
>
> davew
>
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