[FRIAM] climate change questions

Thu Jan 2 12:43:08 EST 2020

Dave,

No skating on the polders this year!

Cold as hell in Santa Fe, if that's any comfort. 

It's funny about that shame thing.  It's one of those forces that connects
individual actions with group-level consequences.  

Feeds those Armenians. 

Nick 

Nick 

Nicholas Thompson

Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology

Clark University

 <mailto:ThompNickSon2 at gmail.com> ThompNickSon2 at gmail.com

 <https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/>
https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

From: Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com> On Behalf Of Prof David West
Sent: Thursday, January 2, 2020 2:39 AM
To: friam at redfish.com
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] climate change questions

Merle wrote:

" ... the deep dialogue on global warming that I experience (and sometimes
facilitate) happening around the world everywhere but here in the U.S ..."

Echo that

 -- I am now experiencing two kinds of deep personal shame at the moment.
One because everybody but me knows and converses in at least three
languages; and second everyone except me seems to have well developed,
comprehensive, and implemented plans for making a difference vis a vis
global warming.

BTW the Dutch Supreme Court just ruled that the Government can be sued for
not doing enough to ameliorate climate change - a lawsuit similar to the one
in the US that the Obama and Trump administration was and is fighting (and
so far losing) brought originally by teenagers as a civil rights case.

The Dutch Court used a section of European Union law that makes all the
other countries in the Union vulnerable to similar lawsuits and those
lawsuits are promptly being filed.

anecdotal evidence - this is going to be a record warm winter in Amsterdam
-- not a drop of snow (there never is much) and only 3 days so far with a
high temperature below 0 centigrade, and the worst of those was -2
centigrade and only for about 4 hours.

davew

On Thu, Jan 2, 2020, at 7:06 AM, Merle Lefkoff wrote:

Steven Smith and Stephen Guerin were two of the complex systems scientists
our organization (The Center for Emergent Diplomacy) invited to join a
conference we organized in Stockholm a few weeks ago--combining our guys
with our Swedish network of scientists and policy wonks working seriously on
climate emergency.  My idea was that the deep dialogue on global warming
that I experience (and sometimes facilitate) happening around the world
everywhere but here in the U.S--could really benefit from a Complexity spin.
Steve and Stephen are somewhat up-to-date, and you might get some
interesting replies from them. 

By the way--all the major government reports, including the UN IPCC reports,
are heavily censored because of how the research is funded.  There is
tremendous pressure to present only best-case scenarios-- for obvious
corporate reasons.  Also, if any of you think the disaster scenarios are
"over-hyped", you really don't have a clue.  Yes, the future is
unprestateable, but many parts of the world are already experiencing the
future of global warming in the present, like a good science fiction story.
And there is a rapidly growing scientific consensus about how quickly the
window is closing on any attempts to contain the risk to human survival on a
much-altered planet.

On Wed, Jan 1, 2020 at 8:45 AM Prof David West <profwest at fastmail.fm
<mailto:profwest at fastmail.fm> > wrote:

Questions,  that do NOT, in any manner or form deny the reality of climate
change.

In 1990, citing the "best scientific models available" stated that because
of carbon dioxide emissions, the Earth would warm by an average of 3 degrees
Fahrenheit and the U.S. as the largest producer, by an average of 6 degrees
Fahrenheit by 2020.

The UN IPCC report of the same year predicted a range of temperature
increases ranging from 1-5 degrees F, with the most likely expectations
being 3-5 by the year 2020.

The current report predicts a rise of 2-5 degrees by 2100.

The New York Times, CNN, and the President of Exxon USA predicted the end of
domestic oil and gas reserves by 2020.

The undisputed rise in Earth (and US) temperature as of 2020 is 1 degree.

Exactly how does one go about constructing a reasoned, and accurate,
argument for the need to address climate change in the context of badly
incorrect predictions, grounded in the best available scientific models, and
over-hyped "disaster scenarios" promulgated by those with political or
simply "circulation" motives.

In light of this context of "error" and "hype," is it fair to tar everyone
expressing questions or doubts with the same "deny-er" brush?

Is it possible to constructively criticize either the models or the proposed
"solutions" without being dismissed as a troglodyte "deny-er?"

Is there a way to evaluate a spectrum of means (eliminating coal to carbon
scrubbers to ...) along with analyses of cost/benefit ratios, human
socio-economic impact, etc. and compare them?

Is there more than one strategy for getting out of this mess; and if so, how
do we decide (and/or construct a blend) on one that will optimize our
chances?

davew

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-- 

Merle Lefkoff, Ph.D.

Center for Emergent Diplomacy

emergentdiplomacy.org <http://emergentdiplomacy.org> 

Santa Fe, New Mexico, USA

merlelefkoff at gmail.com <mailto:merlelefoff at gmail.com> 

mobile:  (303) 859-5609

skype:  merle.lelfkoff2

twitter: @Merle_Lefkoff

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Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College

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