[FRIAM] Murdoch and Trump

[Pieter Steenekamp]

Eric asked for someone with a comprehensive knowledge of climate science
and I do not put my name in the hat. But I do have some comprehension of
the basic science and the big picture.
But like all humans I have biases and very far from having a comprehensive
knowledge of the literature nor the science. In my professional career as
an engineer I have done a lot of engineering modeling and in my private
time I am enthusiastic about emergence and have played with agent based
models to simulate complex systems.

So, on the topic under discussion, there are issues that I reckon should
not be questioned (“the science is settled”):
a) On decades time scales the earth has warmed, the average sea level has
increased and the average CO2 in the atmosphere increased
b) There are direct and indirect causal links between CO2 and temperature
c) The direct causal link is not sufficiently strong to be worried about
d) It’s the indirect link that’s the source of the concerns. CO2 causes the
temperature to rise a little. This causes more evaporation and subsequently
more clouds. Some clouds cause cooling (negative feedback) and some warming
(positive feedback).
e) There are other factors than CO2 also affecting the temperature.

Then there are issues that IMO are not settled.:
I argue an issue that cuts to the very heart of the current climate change
debate is the strength of feedbacks. If the positive feedback is strong and
the negative feedback weak then Houston we have a problem we should listen
to Greta. If not, Trump was probably right in withdrawing from Paris.

Pieter

On Sun, 19 Jan 2020 at 23:13, David Eric Smith <desmith at santafe.edu> wrote:

> Sorry…
>
> My own typos are bad enough, but usually comprehensible.  But when the
> damned computer helpfully comes in and substitutes the word it thinks I
> must have meant, the result is a true obscurity:
>
> > One also wants to take into account arctic se ice, which if I really is
> on a faster melting schedule then some models predicted, though I don’t
> have even a good impressionistic memory of what I have heard on that.
>
> One also wants to take into account arctic _sea_ ice, which if I
> _remember_ is on ….
>
> Eric
>
>
>
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