[FRIAM] Murdoch and Trump

Tue Jan 21 14:32:05 EST 2020

Winter? What's that?
(uttered from 2000 meters elevation in the Andes, 3 miles from the equator)

On Tue, Jan 21, 2020 at 2:28 PM doug carmichael <doug at dougcarmichael.com>
wrote:

> the problem with the small plot of land  approach
>
> 1. what to do in the winter?
> 2. given the number Of people who will try it, what about the supplier
> seeds? Are there enough?
>
> doug
>
> On Jan 21, 2020, at 11:20 AM, Merle Lefkoff <merlelefkoff at gmail.com>
> wrote:
>
> 
> Thank you, Jochen.  Excellent.  Pieter:  We can't predict what will happen
> or when or how fast.  We only have probability analysis.  But it's
> happening now.  The future is here.
>
> My advice when I give talks on climate emergency is make sure you have a
> small piece of empty land, fix the topsoil, learn how to grow food, learn
> how to store food, meditate, and try to enjoy an altered planet.
>
> On Tue, Jan 21, 2020 at 1:23 AM Pieter Steenekamp <
> pieters at randcontrols.co.za> wrote:
>
>> Jochen,
>>
>> How confident are you about the predictions the climate scientists make?
>>
>> When I delve into the details of the IPCC reports I find that there are
>> significant uncertainties. But when popular media report the facts I get
>> the impression that "the science is settled" . Sure, I agree that there are
>> aspects of the science that I would argue "is settled", but there are very
>> crucial aspects with significant uncertainties. For example, the latest
>> available figures from the IPCC reports give the climate sensitivity as
>> within the range of 1.5 to 4.5 (that is the expected increase in global
>> temperatures per doubling of CO2. This is according to the
>> models. Empirical data studies show it to be close to the lower end. If
>> this is true, then the IPCC figures are correct and we don't have to be
>> concerned about CO2 causing serious harm.
>>
>> Is it good enough to say that because CO2 causes the temperature to
>> increase, the temperature has increased the last 100 years or so, the CO2
>> is increasing because of humans burning fossil fuels, therefore if we don't
>> stop burning fossil fuels we are going to have huge disasters? Is it not
>> good practice to ask how much and what other factors contribute?
>>
>> By the way, I also don't have a high opinion of Trump.
>>
>> Pieter
>>
>> On Tue, 21 Jan 2020 at 01:21, Jochen Fromm <jofr at cas-group.net> wrote:
>>
>>> 10 years ago we had 10 degrees below zero in Berlin and several days of
>>> snow. This winter we had not a single day of snow. Not a single one. The
>>> arctic is melting, Australia and California are burning like never before
>>> and Brasil is destroying the last pieces of its precious rain forest.
>>>
>>> And the worst thing is that it will be every year like this one, only
>>> worse. Billions of people are burning in a few decades the fossil fuels
>>> produced over millions of years. You don't need to be an expert to see that
>>> this really can not be reversed in a few months.
>>>
>>> I could even imagine that we burn so much fossil fuels that there will
>>> be regions where we have a lack of Oxygen. Earth was like this many million
>>> years ago.
>>>
>>> And the most powerful country of the world has a president who ignores
>>> all of it and considers himself a very stable genius. Sean Hannity gets 36
>>> Million Dollar (!) a year from Fox News to praise him. Isn't it depressing?
>>>
>>> -Jochen
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> -------- Original message --------
>>> From: Pieter Steenekamp <pieters at randcontrols.co.za>
>>> Date: 1/20/20 22:59 (GMT+01:00)
>>> To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <
>>> friam at redfish.com>
>>> Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Murdoch and Trump
>>>
>>> Eric asked for someone with a comprehensive knowledge of climate science
>>> and I do not put my name in the hat. But I do have some comprehension of
>>> the basic science and the big picture.
>>> But like all humans I have biases and very far from having a
>>> comprehensive knowledge of the literature nor the science. In my
>>> professional career as an engineer I have done a lot of engineering
>>> modeling and in my private time I am enthusiastic about emergence and have
>>> played with agent based models to simulate complex systems.
>>>
>>> So, on the topic under discussion, there are issues that I reckon should
>>> not be questioned (“the science is settled”):
>>> a) On decades time scales the earth has warmed, the average sea level
>>> has increased and the average CO2 in the atmosphere increased
>>> b) There are direct and indirect causal links between CO2 and temperature
>>> c) The direct causal link is not sufficiently strong to be worried about
>>> d) It’s the indirect link that’s the source of the concerns. CO2 causes
>>> the temperature to rise a little. This causes more evaporation and
>>> subsequently more clouds. Some clouds cause cooling (negative feedback) and
>>> some warming (positive feedback).
>>> e) There are other factors than CO2 also affecting the temperature.
>>>
>>> Then there are issues that IMO are not settled.:
>>> I argue an issue that cuts to the very heart of the current climate
>>> change debate is the strength of feedbacks. If the positive feedback is
>>> strong and the negative feedback weak then Houston we have a problem we
>>> should listen to Greta. If not, Trump was probably right in withdrawing
>>> from Paris.
>>>
>>> Pieter
>>>
>>> On Sun, 19 Jan 2020 at 23:13, David Eric Smith <desmith at santafe.edu>
>>> wrote:
>>>
>>>> Sorry…
>>>>
>>>> My own typos are bad enough, but usually comprehensible.  But when the
>>>> damned computer helpfully comes in and substitutes the word it thinks I
>>>> must have meant, the result is a true obscurity:
>>>>
>>>> > One also wants to take into account arctic se ice, which if I really
>>>> is on a faster melting schedule then some models predicted, though I don’t
>>>> have even a good impressionistic memory of what I have heard on that.
>>>>
>>>> One also wants to take into account arctic _sea_ ice, which if I
>>>> _remember_ is on ….
>>>>
>>>> Eric
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> ============================================================
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>>>>
>>> ============================================================
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>>>
>> ============================================================
>> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
>> Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
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>> FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove
>>
>
>
> --
> Merle Lefkoff, Ph.D.
> President, Center for Emergent Diplomacy
> emergentdiplomacy.org
> Santa Fe, New Mexico, USA
> merlelefkoff at gmail.com <merlelefoff at gmail.com>
> mobile:  (303) 859-5609
> skype:  merle.lelfkoff2
> twitter: @Merle_Lefkoff
> ============================================================
> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
> Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
> to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
> archives back to 2003: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/
> FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove
>
> ============================================================
> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
> Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
> to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
> archives back to 2003: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/
> FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove
>
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