[FRIAM] Pandemic Over!

[Steve Smith]

June 15 has come and gone... and perhaps it is worth stopping to see if
the "Pandemic is Over"...   of course, by the stated definition, perhaps
there never was a Pandemic, and Data and Science(tm) are prone to
misrepresentation and use.

However...

This graphic is fascinating.  Thank you Merle!

    https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/2634167/?fbclid=IwAR3VQfNhd00wdGmJGjS-E5_yk0FmUZ-v9n3p2vaJIj_M3bCLMnv8sMgEgKU


The live/interactive version has a very visually compelling impact when
you run the time-slider from January 1 to the end of May.  Since it is a
common myth that "COVID19 is no worse than the seasonal influenza", I
thought I'd check to see when the number of deaths from one caught up
with the other.  

It went past me the first time that the date of that "overtake" was
April Fools day.   Of course, my conspiracy homunculus (one of many
tuned to those channels), jumped right up and called this an "easter
egg" put there by George Soros-funded liberal pinko-flagwaver data
scientists.  A useful comparison for a related homunculus might be to
compare that day to the day of the year the average taxpayer quits
working for uncle Sam and gets down to the business for "working for
mysself, gall-durnit!".  I think that is a tough day to estimate given
how many were out of work, on unemployment, getting stimulus checks,
paid by PPP loan/grants by their small business employers, etc.   I'm
betting that by the first stimulus check a huge number of people had
been paid more for the year than they paid in?!  

For a little more perspective on whether the "Pandemic is Over":
From RT.LIVE on June 20

Looks our states are *precisely* balanced between those whose COVID19
transmission rate is >1.0 and those <1.0

Now Mid April:

Here is where we started (April) with about 1/4 of the states below
1.0.  By some measure half the states are better off now than in the
early days of the Pandemic.


But over a month into the lockdown (mid April) we had only 7 (1/7th-ish)
states with an Ro>1.0, and all of those under 1.2 (8 infecteds leads to
9 new infecteds).  The hammer worked?

Admittedly, *some* of these were simply "late to enter the race"... so
*they* are just hitting their stride a month or so after the states with
big cities fed by multiple international airports.

It is interesting (perhaps, to some) to drill down into the individual
states Ro Curves and see how they relate to shutdown/open-up dates. 
Some states like NM seem to have done well implementing *both* the
hammer AND the dance...

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56



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