[FRIAM] Pandemic Over!

[Steve Smith]

Well, obviously I wasn't addressing Dave's original prediction because
*I think* by his definitions, he would claim there never really *was* a
pandemic, *just* a media/liberal over-reaction to a novel virus that had
jumped species to humans to travel with us worldwide and whose
transmission and mortality rates are (very) arguably "no worse than
influenza" and by now the hysteria would have (maybe?) subdued enough
and morphed into post-hoc explanations why it "wasn't a problem anymore"?

From my perspective, the Pandemic-response (government, retail and
public) in NM has moved into a new phase.   Overall NM's statistics
suggest we are doing fairly well here.   Mary and I have worked into
going to (outdoor) dining establishments fairly regularly and find A)
the staff handles things very well; B) the other customers handle things
very well; C) the demand for these seats/tables is low enough that the
risk feels very low.    It is hard to tell if these establishments are
doing enough business to stay out of the red, but perhaps with PPP
support they *are* making it work.   I tip heavily and try to keep my
aerosolized body fluids close.  

When things started to open up here nearly a month ago, I found a *lot*
of people to bust out of their bubble a little too exuberently for my
taste, and a few times (going into big-box hardware for items I couldn't
get at my small-box alternative) I turned around and went home to come
back later...    since then, mask wearing is now required for entry and
while I do see others pull their masks down when nobody is near, at
least they aren't charging through groups of people maskless like they
were early on in the re-open.

I can't say by *any measure* that the Pandemic is over... unless of
course, as I opened the post... if I declare the conditions to be a
Pandemic were *never* real... which seems pretty hard to support.  I
feel like my level of exposure has increased from nil to tiny with my
expanded public activity.  But I would probably not go visit my 91 year
old mother without doing a 2 week self-isolation first.  Her assisted
living (in AZ) has been locked down hard since the early days.... the
larger complex is senior living community (most over 65) but her
"quadrangle" are all 80+ and have some kind of "special needs" (e.g.
help with a shower or with medicine) but far from Nursing home care
(though there is an RN on staff).  My sister lives in Tucson as well and
while she could *insist* on visiting inside the locked gates, it is
highly discouraged and it appears all of the other residents follow a
similar level of care.   So far they've had no cases in the whole
facility (600 residents?) which suggests they are doing "the right
things".   While I know I could (practically/legally) visit her in her
apartment (or take her out for the day) I'd feel criminally bad if I
handed her this virus, and more critically, injected it into her
"enclave" and somebody(s) died.

> To be fair to Dave's point, his prediction was mostly that the virus and the disease it causes would continue at whatever levels, yet "things" would return to normal. So we'd start treating it like any other risk, whether higher or lower, subjectively or objectively. So, to treat Dave's point directly, we should really look at things like people wearing masks, social distancing, businesses reopening, travel, attendance at huge right-wing Trump rallies, etc.
>
> So, these are the kinds of links we'd need:
>
> https://www.kff.org/coronavirus-covid-19/issue-brief/state-data-and-policy-actions-to-address-coronavirus/
> https://www.unacast.com/covid19/social-distancing-scoreboard
> https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2020/06/18/every-states-rules-for-reopening-and-social-distancing/111909588/
>
> Personally, I think Dave's prediction has obviously failed. But I'm biased because my county has only just requested "phase 3", which means MY PUB IS NOT YET OPEN! Damn it. I have an alternate pub, that opened in phase 2 because they have waaaay more space. But my pub is a hole in the wall that can only fit about 50 people all crammed together. Plus, the only beer store in town where you can get Delerium Tremens right beside the local stuff still hasn't opened at all ... not even to go. And the damned sandwich shop you need in order to eat while having a pint at the beer store still isn't open. So, pffft. The pandemic isn't even slightly over in spite of all the mask-less faces at the grocery and big box stores.
>
>
> On 6/20/20 4:33 PM, Steve Smith wrote:
>> June 15 has come and gone... and perhaps it is worth stopping to see if the "Pandemic is Over"...   of course, by the stated definition, perhaps there never was a Pandemic, and Data and Science(tm) are prone to misrepresentation and use.