[FRIAM] SIR+HD model in JavaScript + Herd Immunity question.
Steve Smith
sasmyth at swcp.com
Wed Oct 14 13:11:09 EDT 2020
Tentative answer to my own question:
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/ajhb.23512
On 10/14/20 10:09 AM, Steve Smith wrote:
>
> Cody -
>
> Thanks for the nod... though I'm less confident in this prediction
> today than I was back in April... though it is interesting to be
> reminded of what I was thinking (or at least saying) back then!
>
> I think there is a lot more interstate mixing than I imagined would
> result. The mass attendance at Sturgis is a strong example of
> gather/scatter with no significant contact-tracing... the few
> attendees in my larger circle only report: "I was there all week and
> there were no outbreaks while I was there... see! I tole'ya it was a
> Democrat Hoax!". I think the "return to college" is maybe providing
> some mixing as well, though I think it is better than the post Spring
> Break/Mardi Gras 2020 moments.
>
> I haven't followed up enough on the modeling referenced back then to
> have even the most general idea of how significant the differing
> implied levels of herd-immunity might be. I remember when some of
> the early broad testing (e.g. whole communities) began and there was
> evidence of more widespread (asymptomatic) infection (via anti-body
> detection) and I thought we might actually be able to establish a
> meaningful level of "herd immunity". Also the "experiment" that is
> Sweden seems somewhat ambiguous...
>
> I'm wondering if anyone here with more hands-on experience with
> network transmission models has thoughts/opinions/ideas on what "herd
> immunity" means in the context of shifting the shifting valencies as
> individuals limit the number (and significance) of interactions with
> others. It seems that by now, there must be some studies/models that
> try to address that. Also the implication of "superspreader" events,
> and what actually characterizes such?
>
> - Steve
>
> On 10/14/20 9:28 AM, cody dooderson wrote:
>> I was just looking back for a previous conversation about herd
>> immunity and came across what seems to be an accurate prediction from
>> Steve Smith.
>>
>> My post-apocalyptic novel might include a study on this: What
>> if the Blue States mitigate hard and fast, in spite of losing the
>> battle in a few states like high-density, early onset new
>> york/new jersey, and reduce deaths (including ones avoidable if
>> not for overwhelming health-care) but also reduce herd-immunity.
>> And the Red States limit their mitigation, take a huge hit in
>> infection and death (but moderated by mostly being less-dense
>> states) but come out the other side with better herd-immunity.
>> I can imagine fresh border-checks (remember when every state
>> border crossing had a weigh station for trucks?) to restrict Red
>> Staters infecting Blue States early on, then later vice-versa?
>>
>>
>> Cody Smith
>>
>>
>> On Sat, Apr 4, 2020 at 3:46 PM Steven A Smith <sasmyth at swcp.com
>> <mailto:sasmyth at swcp.com>> wrote:
>>
>> I'm sure many have seen this... if not scroll to the bottom for
>> the JS model (you can download/inspect/modify the code if you
>> like)... It doesn't stop at SIR but adds H(ospitalization) and
>> D(eath)... and is parameterized with sliders.
>>
>>
>> https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/25/opinion/coronavirus-trump-reopen-america.html
>>
>> And the JS (warning,huge with lots of device/browser-specific cruft):
>>
>>
>> https://static01.nyt.com/newsgraphics/2020/03/16/opinion-coronavirus-model-2/d268775237c095931fe2fae6015c568c0011fd76/build/js/main.js
>>
>> I don't feel comfortable having a strong opinion about this
>> beyond echoing what THIS article says about the risk of quick
>> mitigation followed by return-to-normal *without* establishing
>> significant herd-immunity. This author refers to it as "hiding
>> infections in the future" and makes a good point about staving
>> off infection too well for too long and getting hit hard next
>> "cold and flu" season IF we haven't established good treatment,
>> increased health care capacity, and/or effective vaccines.
>>
>>
>> https://medium.com/@wpegden/a-call-to-honesty-in-pandemic-modeling-5c156686a64b
>>
>> For better or worse, other countries are trying different
>> mixtures and styles of mitigation and have different levels of
>> health-care capacity and ability to location-track and shut down
>> mobility.
>>
>> While many criticize (or defend) the lax or laggy response of
>> many Red States, this provides yet another diversity/ensemble
>> study for the ultimate "model" of all... in this case, the
>> territory IS the territory, the population IS one big fat analog
>> computer for calculating the pandemic (the answer to which, is
>> naturally 42).
>>
>> Of course, "scofflaw" communities like the spring-break youth,
>> the evangelical churches, and states like Georgia with governers
>> who say "we didn't know that people without symptoms could be
>> infectious until 24 hours ago!" represent a reservoir for
>> exposure if they continue to mix, but might end up being a source
>> of virus resistant.
>>
>> https://www.motherjones.com/coronavirus-updates/2020/04/coronavirus-state-social-distancing-policy/
>>
>> https://faculty.washington.edu/cadolph/papers/AABFW2020.pdf?fbclid=IwAR09JwtQzEkerOGiRXxaiptbyDqGZZ7_7Ullg7UX9qtVDFWumdKZGF8WOzY
>>
>>
>> My post-apocalyptic novel might include a study on this: What
>> if the Blue States mitigate hard and fast, in spite of losing the
>> battle in a few states like high-density, early onset new
>> york/new jersey, and reduce deaths (including ones avoidable if
>> not for overwhelming health-care) but also reduce herd-immunity.
>> And the Red States limit their mitigation, take a huge hit in
>> infection and death (but moderated by mostly being less-dense
>> states) but come out the other side with better herd-immunity.
>> I can imagine fresh border-checks (remember when every state
>> border crossing had a weigh station for trucks?) to restrict Red
>> Staters infecting Blue States early on, then later vice-versa?
>> Seems like the ongoing extraction economy in (mostly Red States)
>> is pretty social-distancy while the more service economy of Blue
>> States is at risk... though professional and even office work is
>> nominally quite easily social-disanced.
>>
>> Mumble,
>>
>> - Steve
>>
>>
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