[FRIAM] high turnout and tight races?

[Frank Wimberly]

I predict that Biden will win by a large margin and that the outcome will
be clear on election night notwithstanding any outstanding uncounted
votes.  Young people are voting in unprecedented numbers and are reportedly
voting against Trump.  Similarly the elderly, who favored Trump over
Clinton by 10+ percentage points in 2016 are favoring Biden over Trump by a
similar margin, according to polls.

The good thing about predictions is that they can be evaluated perfectly
after the events have happened.

Frank

---
Frank C. Wimberly
140 Calle Ojo Feliz,
Santa Fe, NM 87505

505 670-9918
Santa Fe, NM

On Wed, Oct 28, 2020, 5:20 PM uǝlƃ ↙↙↙ <gepropella at gmail.com> wrote:

> From:
>
> https://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2020/Pres/Maps/Oct28.html#item-7
> "6. High turnout makes razor-thin victories, like the ones Trump notched
> in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania in 2016, much less likely."
>
> Is that true? I've always heard that tight races lead to higher turnout,
> which would imply that high turnout would correlate WITH thin victories,
> not against them.
>
> --
> ↙↙↙ uǝlƃ
>
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