[FRIAM] high turnout and tight races?
Gary Schiltz
gary at naturesvisualarts.com
Wed Oct 28 22:43:46 EDT 2020
Arghhh, I meant to write that I’ve warmed to the idea of mandatory voting,
not warned. The perils of typing on a phone.
On Wed, Oct 28, 2020 at 9:40 PM Gary Schiltz <gary at naturesvisualarts.com>
wrote:
> I think that Republicans make up way less than half of the population, but
> the people who are traditionally less inclined to vote, would vote Democrat
> if they voted. This is responsible for Republicans lately getting very
> slightly over half the votes cast. I further believe that most of the
> newly motivated voters come from this heretofore underrepresented left
> leaning group, hence the likelihood of the Democratic margin of victory
> being larger this year. Whether that implies a correlation between turnout
> and margin of victory, I will leave it to the statisticians to argue over.
>
> Incidentally, I have warned to the idea of mandatory voting, as we have
> here in Ecuador, and I believe in Australia as well. Without a “papel de
> votación”, i.e. a certificate that proves that you voted in the
> previous election, you have to pay a fine in order to get government
> services such ad drivers licenses.
>
> On Wed, Oct 28, 2020 at 8:16 PM Roger Critchlow <rec at elf.org> wrote:
>
>> I would think that the more people who vote the less likely a tie or
>> close outcome becomes, simply by the larger number of ways you can miss
>> with more votes in play.
>>
>> -- rec --
>>
>>
>> On Wed, Oct 28, 2020 at 8:17 PM Frank Wimberly <wimberly3 at gmail.com>
>> wrote:
>>
>>> N = 3 is slightly better. But I don't have time or incentive to do a
>>> detailed statistical analysis.
>>>
>>> ---
>>> Frank C. Wimberly
>>> 140 Calle Ojo Feliz,
>>> <https://www.google.com/maps/search/140+Calle+Ojo+Feliz,++Santa+Fe,+NM+87505?entry=gmail&source=g>
>>> Santa Fe, NM 87505
>>> <https://www.google.com/maps/search/140+Calle+Ojo+Feliz,++Santa+Fe,+NM+87505?entry=gmail&source=g>
>>>
>>> 505 670-9918
>>> Santa Fe, NM
>>>
>>> On Wed, Oct 28, 2020, 6:14 PM Frank Wimberly <wimberly3 at gmail.com>
>>> wrote:
>>>
>>>> In 1964 Johnson beat Goldwater by 60 to 40. The Kennedy/Nixon and
>>>> Gore/Bush elections were extremely close. In all three elections the
>>>> turnout was between 35 and 40 percent.
>>>>
>>>> ---
>>>> Frank C. Wimberly
>>>> 140 Calle Ojo Feliz,
>>>> <https://www.google.com/maps/search/140+Calle+Ojo+Feliz,++Santa+Fe,+NM+87505?entry=gmail&source=g>
>>>> Santa Fe, NM 87505
>>>> <https://www.google.com/maps/search/140+Calle+Ojo+Feliz,++Santa+Fe,+NM+87505?entry=gmail&source=g>
>>>>
>>>> 505 670-9918
>>>> Santa Fe, NM
>>>>
>>>> On Wed, Oct 28, 2020, 6:00 PM Frank Wimberly <wimberly3 at gmail.com>
>>>> wrote:
>>>>
>>>>> I'm saying that in this election there will be high turnout and not a
>>>>> very close election.
>>>>>
>>>>> ---
>>>>> Frank C. Wimberly
>>>>> 140 Calle Ojo Feliz,
>>>>> <https://www.google.com/maps/search/140+Calle+Ojo+Feliz,++Santa+Fe,+NM+87505?entry=gmail&source=g>
>>>>> Santa Fe, NM 87505
>>>>> <https://www.google.com/maps/search/140+Calle+Ojo+Feliz,++Santa+Fe,+NM+87505?entry=gmail&source=g>
>>>>>
>>>>> 505 670-9918
>>>>> Santa Fe, NM
>>>>>
>>>>> On Wed, Oct 28, 2020, 5:59 PM uǝlƃ ↙↙↙ <gepropella at gmail.com> wrote:
>>>>>
>>>>>> So, what about the question I asked? You have no opinion on whether
>>>>>> high turnout negatively or positively correlates with narrow victories?
>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>>> On 10/28/20 4:52 PM, Frank Wimberly wrote:
>>>>>> > I predict that Biden will win by a large margin and that the
>>>>>> outcome will be clear on election night notwithstanding any outstanding
>>>>>> uncounted votes. Young people are voting in unprecedented numbers and are
>>>>>> reportedly voting against Trump. Similarly the elderly, who favored Trump
>>>>>> over Clinton by 10+ percentage points in 2016 are favoring Biden over Trump
>>>>>> by a similar margin, according to polls.
>>>>>> >
>>>>>> > The good thing about predictions is that they can be evaluated
>>>>>> perfectly after the events have happened.
>>>>>> >
>>>>>> > Frank
>>>>>> >
>>>>>> > ---
>>>>>> > Frank C. Wimberly
>>>>>> > 140 Calle Ojo Feliz,
>>>>>> <https://www.google.com/maps/search/140+Calle+Ojo+Feliz,+%0D%0A+Santa+Fe,+NM+87505?entry=gmail&source=g>
>>>>>>
>>>>>> <https://www.google.com/maps/search/140+Calle+Ojo+Feliz,+%0D%0A+Santa+Fe,+NM+87505?entry=gmail&source=g>>
>>>>>> Santa Fe, NM 87505
>>>>>> <https://www.google.com/maps/search/140+Calle+Ojo+Feliz,+%0D%0A+Santa+Fe,+NM+87505?entry=gmail&source=g>
>>>>>> >
>>>>>> > 505 670-9918
>>>>>> > Santa Fe, NM
>>>>>> >
>>>>>> > On Wed, Oct 28, 2020, 5:20 PM uǝlƃ ↙↙↙ <gepropella at gmail.com
>>>>>> <mailto:gepropella at gmail.com>> wrote:
>>>>>> >
>>>>>> > From:
>>>>>> >
>>>>>> >
>>>>>> https://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2020/Pres/Maps/Oct28.html#item-7 <
>>>>>> https://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2020/Pres/Maps/Oct28.html#item-7>
>>>>>> > "6. High turnout makes razor-thin victories, like the ones
>>>>>> Trump notched in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania in 2016, much less
>>>>>> likely."
>>>>>> >
>>>>>> > Is that true? I've always heard that tight races lead to higher
>>>>>> turnout, which would imply that high turnout would correlate WITH thin
>>>>>> victories, not against them.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> --
>>>>>> ↙↙↙ uǝlƃ
>>>>>>
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