[FRIAM] high turnout and tight races?

Thu Oct 29 13:00:06 EDT 2020

Variance of what?  A random variable defined by Biden = 1, Trump = 0?  Over
the population of voters?

---
Frank C. Wimberly
140 Calle Ojo Feliz,
Santa Fe, NM 87505

505 670-9918
Santa Fe, NM

On Thu, Oct 29, 2020, 10:55 AM <thompnickson2 at gmail.com> wrote:

> Roger wrote:
>
>
>
> However, if there is the tiniest tendency toward voting one way or the
> other, then the probability of a close result dwindles with the turnout:
>
>
>
> If you are correct here, then why doesn’t it upend small sample theory?
> Sample variance = population variance / sample size?
>
>
>
> Nick
>
>
>
> Nicholas Thompson
>
> Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology
>
> Clark University
>
> ThompNickSon2 at gmail.com
>
> https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/
>
>
>
>
>
> *From:* Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com> *On Behalf Of *Roger Critchlow
> *Sent:* Thursday, October 29, 2020 9:33 AM
> *To:* The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <
> friam at redfish.com>
> *Subject:* Re: [FRIAM] high turnout and tight races?
>
>
>
> You're right, assuming that either vote is equally likely:
>
>
>
> julia> for n in [10000, 100000, 1000000]
>     # run 1000 simulations
>     close = 0
>     for x in 1:1000
>         # collect votes
>         v = rand(Int(n))
>         n1 = count(v .< 0.5)
>         n2 = n-n1
>         if (n1-n2)/n < 0.01
>             close += 1
>         end
>     end
>     p = close/1000
>     println("pop $n has p(close) $p");
> end
> pop 10000 has p(close) 0.841
> pop 100000 has p(close) 0.999
> pop 1000000 has p(close) 1.0
>
>
>
> However, if there is the tiniest tendency toward voting one way or the
> other, then the probability of a close result dwindles with the turnout:
>
>
>
> bias = 0.51
> for n in [10000, 100000, 1000000]
>     # run 1000 simulations
>     close = 0
>     for x in 1:1000
>         # collect votes
>         v = rand(Int(n))
>         n1 = count(v .< bias)
>         n2 = n-n1
>         if (n1-n2)/n < 0.01
>             close += 1
>         end
>     end
>     p = close/1000
>     println("pop $n has p(close) $p");
> end
>
>
>
>  pop 10000 has p(close) 0.166
> pop 100000 has p(close) 0.001
> pop 1000000 has p(close) 0.0
>
>
>
> -- rec --
>
>
>
> On Wed, Oct 28, 2020 at 10:46 PM <thompnickson2 at gmail.com> wrote:
>
> HANG ON, Roger
>
>
>
> Variance decreases with N.
>
>
>
> Nicholas Thompson
>
> Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology
>
> Clark University
>
> ThompNickSon2 at gmail.com
>
> https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/
>
>
>
>
>
> *From:* Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com> *On Behalf Of *Roger Critchlow
> *Sent:* Wednesday, October 28, 2020 7:16 PM
> *To:* The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <
> friam at redfish.com>
> *Subject:* Re: [FRIAM] high turnout and tight races?
>
>
>
> I would think that the more people who vote the less likely a tie or close
> outcome becomes, simply by the larger number of ways you can miss with more
> votes in play.
>
>
>
> -- rec --
>
>
>
>
>
> On Wed, Oct 28, 2020 at 8:17 PM Frank Wimberly <wimberly3 at gmail.com>
> wrote:
>
> N = 3 is slightly better.  But I don't have time or incentive to do a
> detailed statistical analysis.
>
> ---
> Frank C. Wimberly
> 140 Calle Ojo Feliz,
> Santa Fe, NM 87505
>
> 505 670-9918
> Santa Fe, NM
>
>
>
> On Wed, Oct 28, 2020, 6:14 PM Frank Wimberly <wimberly3 at gmail.com> wrote:
>
> In 1964 Johnson beat Goldwater by 60 to 40.  The Kennedy/Nixon and
> Gore/Bush elections were extremely close.  In all three elections the
> turnout was between 35 and 40 percent.
>
> ---
> Frank C. Wimberly
> 140 Calle Ojo Feliz,
> Santa Fe, NM 87505
>
> 505 670-9918
> Santa Fe, NM
>
>
>
> On Wed, Oct 28, 2020, 6:00 PM Frank Wimberly <wimberly3 at gmail.com> wrote:
>
> I'm saying that in this election there will be high turnout and not a very
> close election.
>
> ---
> Frank C. Wimberly
> 140 Calle Ojo Feliz,
> Santa Fe, NM 87505
>
> 505 670-9918
> Santa Fe, NM
>
>
>
> On Wed, Oct 28, 2020, 5:59 PM uǝlƃ ↙↙↙ <gepropella at gmail.com> wrote:
>
> So, what about the question I asked? You have no opinion on whether high
> turnout negatively or positively correlates with narrow victories?
>
>
> On 10/28/20 4:52 PM, Frank Wimberly wrote:
> > I predict that Biden will win by a large margin and that the outcome
> will be clear on election night notwithstanding any outstanding uncounted
> votes.  Young people are voting in unprecedented numbers and are reportedly
> voting against Trump.  Similarly the elderly, who favored Trump over
> Clinton by 10+ percentage points in 2016 are favoring Biden over Trump by a
> similar margin, according to polls.
> >
> > The good thing about predictions is that they can be evaluated perfectly
> after the events have happened.
> >
> > Frank
> >
> > ---
> > Frank C. Wimberly
> > 140 Calle Ojo Feliz,
> > Santa Fe, NM 87505
> >
> > 505 670-9918
> > Santa Fe, NM
> >
> > On Wed, Oct 28, 2020, 5:20 PM uǝlƃ ↙↙↙ <gepropella at gmail.com <mailto:
> gepropella at gmail.com>> wrote:
> >
> >     From:
> >
> >     https://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2020/Pres/Maps/Oct28.html#item-7 <
> https://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2020/Pres/Maps/Oct28.html#item-7>
> >     "6. High turnout makes razor-thin victories, like the ones Trump
> notched in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania in 2016, much less likely."
> >
> >     Is that true? I've always heard that tight races lead to higher
> turnout, which would imply that high turnout would correlate WITH thin
> victories, not against them.
>
> --
> ↙↙↙ uǝlƃ
>
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