[FRIAM] vax v unvax

Wed Aug 18 18:00:42 EDT 2021

The Israeli data turned up in Andrew Gelman's blog today

https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2021/08/18/coronavirus-and-simpsons-paradox-oldsters-are-more-likely-to-be-vaccinated-and-more-likely-to-have-severe-infections-so-you-need-to-adjust-for-age-when-comparing-vaccinated-and-unvaccinated-peopl/

The argument broken out in his correspondent's blog:

https://www.covid-datascience.com/post/israeli-data-how-can-efficacy-vs-severe-disease-be-strong-when-60-of-hospitalized-are-vaccinated

Next the statistics police will be telling us how to use the data!

Oh, and someone noticed that a lot of the unvaccinated can't afford to take
two days off for vaccination side effects, no medical leave, you could try
offering her 2 days and a few hours pay to get vaccinated.

-- rec --

On Wed, Aug 18, 2021 at 4:58 PM Marcus Daniels <marcus at snoutfarm.com> wrote:

> Another hypothesis is that they tend to be less engaged in the economy and
> their communities and so are thus less susceptible; smaller social networks
> and lower spatial density.  And further they attach themselves to these
> crazy ideas because no one ever has the opportunity to push back except
> people that go way out of their way like Glen.
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com> On Behalf Of David Eric Smith
> Sent: Wednesday, August 18, 2021 1:09 PM
> To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <friam at redfish.com>
> Subject: Re: [FRIAM] vax v unvax
>
> This is one that it would be nice to see broken down by age and other
> conditions.
>
> If unvaxxed hospitalizations are a true “cross section of America” (like
> jury duty), whereas the vaxxed ones are mainly old or sick with something
> else, that would be an important variable for deriving a risk profile  by
> category.
>
> Time, time, time, to chase things down….
>
> Eric
>
> > On Aug 19, 2021, at 4:53 AM, uǝlƃ ☤>$ <gepropella at gmail.com> wrote:
> >
> >
> > Soooo ... our house cleaner is anti-vax. My friends tell me we should
> fire her. I've resisted confronting her over it. But hospitals being
> overrun influenced me to press her a little bit. I claimed that the
> majority of hospitalizations are the unvaxxed. She claimed that down near
> her (I think closer to Centralia, WA), it was flipped, that the majority of
> hospitalizations were vaccinated. We had the usual conversation where she
> ended with "you believe your data and I believe my data" blather. So I
> decided to see if I could find news articles claiming the majority of
> hospitalized covid cases are the vaccinated. And I found this:
> >
> > Higher Death, Hospitalization Rates Among Vaccinated Individuals: UK
> > COVID-19 Data
> > https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=https%3a%2f%2fwww.visiontimes.co
> > m%2f2021%2f07%2f04%2fdeaths-hospital-vaccinated-uk.html&c=E,1,S5wT7eG_
> > LxnTLuUE1RbuVEziaTP99eeGAnZxv_dtTYhpTiIkicxQt2mvokLXVbixkXhDcXvoLjNg1n
> > GUqSLe66RnTqmVs_5EGMgv3Z6cPUYQEg,,&typo=1
> >
> > Most COVID-19 Patients at Israel Hospital Fully Vaccinated, Doctor Calls
> Mandates ‘Diabolic’
> > https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=https%3a%2f%2fwww.visiontimes.co
> > m%2f2021%2f08%2f08%2fisrael-hospital-vaccinated.html&c=E,1,FDPrPMNiU5e
> > 621cpzQhoViPiTlcpkww8iHTLVFR9vwhMrJ_5m1j77NIXnZYqEweYmhJcGmbR5PUWpuOvQ
> > F1ZPV23_7Fw9AKvzzPGnjmS-w,,&typo=1
> >
> > They're both from the "Vision Times", which looks to me like a Falun
> Gong outlet, popular with Trumpists, anti-CCP, etc. So, I don't really want
> to do any debunking or verification. I *want* to write it off as garbage.
> But their source:
> https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=https%3a%2f%2fassets.publishing.service.gov.uk%2fgovernment%2fuploads%2fsystem%2fuploads%2fattachment_data%2ffile%2f1001359%2fVariants_of_Concern_VOC_Technical_Briefing_16.pdf&c=E,1,Z0AX7_CvU6zmg1ca9s0IY3_E3dshyhV2o2XdB9IZiLRuF4FqVWdK_4ijYuyJIk-wyRPEoaaRJUlchbHLmor1XP3Y-0_ioCec73m-PpoXtafAhLUS702P8MUqhA,,&typo=1
> seems legit. And the numbers in the article seem to match Table 4.
> >
> > Plugging in the numbers from the latest briefing:
> > https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars
> > -cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
> >
> > It really does seem to show that the death rate among vaxxed is higher
> than that among unvaxxed.
> >
> > The LifeSiteNews site is obviously troll nonsense. But my concern is
> mostly about that tech report from the UK and Herzog Hospital. Are these
> counter examples to the NYT unvax/vax data? Are they small enough to be
> within error?
> >
> > --
> > ☤>$ uǝlƃ
> >
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