[FRIAM] vax v unvax

Thu Aug 19 11:05:42 EDT 2021

What boggles my mind is that the aggregated results are so
consistently wrong.  The aggregated efficacy of 67.5% is less than all the
stratified efficacies.  The 2 group efficacies are less than 9 out of 10 of
the 10 group efficacies.  I imagine plotting this and getting a little
firework as the efficacy rates just keep going up and up.  All of the
aggregated efficacies are underestimates for all or almost all of the
stratified efficacies.

I just read a NYTimes brief on measuring vaccine efficacy and saw plots in
which the single number estimate for efficacy was surrounded by a region of
uncertainty, which is what I expect when someone gives me a single number
estimate of some measurement.  I'm guessing that the clinical trials
balanced age group participation in the trials so all age groups had the
same vaccination rate, but I don't see how they could design to control for
the increasing frailty of older bodies.  Is it possible that the single
number efficacy estimates understate the efficacy

Oh, the quantity 1-vax/unvax is *efficacy* when measured during clinical
trials.  The same quantity is *effectiveness* when measured after vaccine
deployment.  A distinction which must be useful in some discussions.

-- rec --

On Wed, Aug 18, 2021 at 11:21 PM Frank Wimberly <wimberly3 at gmail.com> wrote:

> Simpson's example:  in a high school class females get higher grades in
> their classes but males get higher scores on the SAT.  For both genders SAT
> scores and grades are positively correlated but in the whole class they are
> negatively correlated.
>
> ---
> Frank C. Wimberly
> 140 Calle Ojo Feliz,
> Santa Fe, NM 87505
>
> 505 670-9918
> Santa Fe, NM
>
> On Wed, Aug 18, 2021, 9:05 PM David Eric Smith <desmith at santafe.edu>
> wrote:
>
>> Indeed, Roger,
>>
>> Spirit of fun in the original already very clear.
>>
>> Why I get some sort of pleasure, when there is already a perfectly good
>> reductio ad absurdum, in looking for ways to change its appearance of
>> tautology, I do not understand.  Fortunately _that_ is not an important
>> question.
>>
>> Eric
>>
>>
>>
>> On Aug 19, 2021, at 11:50 AM, Roger Critchlow <rec at elf.org> wrote:
>>
>> Eric -
>>
>> No problem with the modification, I was just making noise at that point:
>> death panels, statistical police, knowledge is oppression, and so on.
>>
>> I see, Morris did exactly what you were suggesting and then went on to
>> itemize every quibble that might come up in the conclusion.
>>
>> I might even remember Simpson's Paradox after this, at least for a few
>> days.
>>
>> -- rec --
>>
>> -- rec --
>>
>> On Wed, Aug 18, 2021 at 8:27 PM Frank Wimberly <wimberly3 at gmail.com>
>> wrote:
>>
>>> So that's why I'm feeling uneasy as I approach 80.  😐
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> ---
>>> Frank C. Wimberly
>>> 140 Calle Ojo Feliz,
>>> Santa Fe, NM 87505
>>>
>>> 505 670-9918
>>> Santa Fe, NM
>>>
>>> On Wed, Aug 18, 2021, 5:38 PM David Eric Smith <desmith at santafe.edu>
>>> wrote:
>>>
>>>> May I offer a tiny rewording to one of your sentences, Roger?
>>>>
>>>> Given that right now I am in a months-long redraft of a paper, which
>>>> feels like having my teeth drilled, trying to say some things about the
>>>> difference between what one can do with summary statistics and what one
>>>> does with population-wide regressions.  I am in a situation where I can’t
>>>> use terms (this community doesn’t use them), can’t cite to where they are
>>>> explained (not their literature; they will not go follow a cite), and can’t
>>>> explain them in-line (too long; people don’t want to read all that).
>>>> Complain complain complain.
>>>>
>>>> Interesting thing is that the particular “data” we are getting are, of
>>>> course, summary statistics. So:
>>>>
>>>> You said:
>>>>
>>>> Next the statistics police will be telling us how to use the data!
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> How about:
>>>>
>>>> Next the statistics police will be telling us how to use the statistics!
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> Eric
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> On Aug 19, 2021, at 7:00 AM, Roger Critchlow <rec at elf.org> wrote:
>>>>
>>>> The Israeli data turned up in Andrew Gelman's blog today
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2021/08/18/coronavirus-and-simpsons-paradox-oldsters-are-more-likely-to-be-vaccinated-and-more-likely-to-have-severe-infections-so-you-need-to-adjust-for-age-when-comparing-vaccinated-and-unvaccinated-peopl/
>>>>
>>>> The argument broken out in his correspondent's blog:
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> https://www.covid-datascience.com/post/israeli-data-how-can-efficacy-vs-severe-disease-be-strong-when-60-of-hospitalized-are-vaccinated
>>>> <https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=https%3a%2f%2fwww.covid-datascience.com%2fpost%2fisraeli-data-how-can-efficacy-vs-severe-disease-be-strong-when-60-of-hospitalized-are-vaccinated&c=E,1,r88QWsw9ZFie03L99WBI-GfoUio7QJL9q0f6LgfquHy6yusuS3afGu9rl-P2qKIe3neZBMCmbb-dV2vLzn84I9vqbj9PkeulwJ9dRSdlThEZ27Vn6yCOrCAc&typo=1>
>>>>
>>>> Next the statistics police will be telling us how to use the data!
>>>>
>>>> Oh, and someone noticed that a lot of the unvaccinated can't afford to
>>>> take two days off for vaccination side effects, no medical leave, you could
>>>> try offering her 2 days and a few hours pay to get vaccinated.
>>>>
>>>> -- rec --
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> On Wed, Aug 18, 2021 at 4:58 PM Marcus Daniels <marcus at snoutfarm.com>
>>>> wrote:
>>>>
>>>>> Another hypothesis is that they tend to be less engaged in the economy
>>>>> and their communities and so are thus less susceptible; smaller social
>>>>> networks and lower spatial density.  And further they attach themselves to
>>>>> these crazy ideas because no one ever has the opportunity to push back
>>>>> except people that go way out of their way like Glen.
>>>>>
>>>>> -----Original Message-----
>>>>> From: Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com> On Behalf Of David Eric Smith
>>>>> Sent: Wednesday, August 18, 2021 1:09 PM
>>>>> To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <
>>>>> friam at redfish.com>
>>>>> Subject: Re: [FRIAM] vax v unvax
>>>>>
>>>>> This is one that it would be nice to see broken down by age and other
>>>>> conditions.
>>>>>
>>>>> If unvaxxed hospitalizations are a true “cross section of America”
>>>>> (like jury duty), whereas the vaxxed ones are mainly old or sick with
>>>>> something else, that would be an important variable for deriving a risk
>>>>> profile  by category.
>>>>>
>>>>> Time, time, time, to chase things down….
>>>>>
>>>>> Eric
>>>>>
>>>>> > On Aug 19, 2021, at 4:53 AM, uǝlƃ ☤>$ <gepropella at gmail.com> wrote:
>>>>> >
>>>>> >
>>>>> > Soooo ... our house cleaner is anti-vax. My friends tell me we
>>>>> should fire her. I've resisted confronting her over it. But hospitals being
>>>>> overrun influenced me to press her a little bit. I claimed that the
>>>>> majority of hospitalizations are the unvaxxed. She claimed that down near
>>>>> her (I think closer to Centralia, WA), it was flipped, that the majority of
>>>>> hospitalizations were vaccinated. We had the usual conversation where she
>>>>> ended with "you believe your data and I believe my data" blather. So I
>>>>> decided to see if I could find news articles claiming the majority of
>>>>> hospitalized covid cases are the vaccinated. And I found this:
>>>>> >
>>>>> > Higher Death, Hospitalization Rates Among Vaccinated Individuals: UK
>>>>> > COVID-19 Data
>>>>> >
>>>>> https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=https%3a%2f%2fwww.visiontimes.co
>>>>> >
>>>>> m%2f2021%2f07%2f04%2fdeaths-hospital-vaccinated-uk.html&c=E,1,S5wT7eG_
>>>>> >
>>>>> LxnTLuUE1RbuVEziaTP99eeGAnZxv_dtTYhpTiIkicxQt2mvokLXVbixkXhDcXvoLjNg1n
>>>>> > GUqSLe66RnTqmVs_5EGMgv3Z6cPUYQEg,,&typo=1
>>>>> >
>>>>> > Most COVID-19 Patients at Israel Hospital Fully Vaccinated, Doctor
>>>>> Calls Mandates ‘Diabolic’
>>>>> >
>>>>> https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=https%3a%2f%2fwww.visiontimes.co
>>>>> >
>>>>> m%2f2021%2f08%2f08%2fisrael-hospital-vaccinated.html&c=E,1,FDPrPMNiU5e
>>>>> >
>>>>> 621cpzQhoViPiTlcpkww8iHTLVFR9vwhMrJ_5m1j77NIXnZYqEweYmhJcGmbR5PUWpuOvQ
>>>>> > F1ZPV23_7Fw9AKvzzPGnjmS-w,,&typo=1
>>>>> >
>>>>> > They're both from the "Vision Times", which looks to me like a Falun
>>>>> Gong outlet, popular with Trumpists, anti-CCP, etc. So, I don't really want
>>>>> to do any debunking or verification. I *want* to write it off as garbage.
>>>>> But their source:
>>>>> https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=https%3a%2f%2fassets.publishing.service.gov.uk%2fgovernment%2fuploads%2fsystem%2fuploads%2fattachment_data%2ffile%2f1001359%2fVariants_of_Concern_VOC_Technical_Briefing_16.pdf&c=E,1,Z0AX7_CvU6zmg1ca9s0IY3_E3dshyhV2o2XdB9IZiLRuF4FqVWdK_4ijYuyJIk-wyRPEoaaRJUlchbHLmor1XP3Y-0_ioCec73m-PpoXtafAhLUS702P8MUqhA,,&typo=1
>>>>> seems legit. And the numbers in the article seem to match Table 4.
>>>>> >
>>>>> > Plugging in the numbers from the latest briefing:
>>>>> >
>>>>> https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars
>>>>> > -cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
>>>>> >
>>>>> > It really does seem to show that the death rate among vaxxed is
>>>>> higher than that among unvaxxed.
>>>>> >
>>>>> > The LifeSiteNews site is obviously troll nonsense. But my concern is
>>>>> mostly about that tech report from the UK and Herzog Hospital. Are these
>>>>> counter examples to the NYT unvax/vax data? Are they small enough to be
>>>>> within error?
>>>>> >
>>>>> > --
>>>>> > ☤>$ uǝlƃ
>>>>> >
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