[FRIAM] Lancet article on how well countries appear to have protected and appear to have reported

Wed Apr 27 01:05:13 EDT 2022

Ahhhh, 

That is no country for old men. The young
In one another's arms, birds in the trees,
… 
Caught in that sensual music all neglect
Monuments of unageing intellect.

> On Apr 27, 2022, at 12:31 PM, Marcus Daniels <marcus at snoutfarm.com> wrote:
> 
> Here’s how Oakland addresses the misinformation problem.
>  
> https://www.vice.com/en/article/v7da78/the-anti-vax-trucker-convoy-made-one-crucial-error-in-messing-with-oakland <https://www.vice.com/en/article/v7da78/the-anti-vax-trucker-convoy-made-one-crucial-error-in-messing-with-oakland>
>  
> From: Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com <mailto:friam-bounces at redfish.com>> On Behalf Of Steve Smith
> Sent: Tuesday, April 26, 2022 8:45 AM
> To: friam at redfish.com <mailto:friam at redfish.com>
> Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Lancet article on how well countries appear to have protected and appear to have reported
>  
> I don't feel qualified to understand much of this study nor how good of science it is, but taking it at face value, I find it fascinating that the gist of the introduction is that the attribution of death to COVID-19 is likely under-reported rather than over-reported as many of the wingnuts who started with "no worse than the flu", then segued to "democrat hoax" to "chinese plot" to "fauci funded chinese plot".   While I suspect the anecdotes they parlayed had *some* real and honest examples to draw from anecdotes are so easy to manufacture, clone, magnify that they were suspect from the beginning.  
> 
> EricS's point that (proper/complete?) statistical analysis lags (trickles in) is important and something I've been trying to understand for myself in my own personal understanding of large, sweeping changes in our socioeconomicpolitical landscape.   I'm exhausted from hearing the never-ending micro-analysis of each tranche of factoids that hit the media (currently the txt messages surrounding Jan 6 2021), but nevertheless unable to look away for very long.   And yet I believe/trust that hindsight, filtered through more thorough analysis will outline a much better picture than in-the-moment knee-jerk analysis possibly can.  I vaguely/acutely remember everyone I knew hanging on each day's "new cases" and "hospitalizations" and "deaths"  during the first 3-6 months, even as I knew that a more complete contextualized analysis of those numbers would not be out for weeks or even months.    it was a time of a certain kind of hypervigilance.  I had a similar period during the opening weeks of the Russian Invasion of Ukraine where I went searching for Ukranian webcams and watched them in the background, imagining that I would see something there that would give me more useful information than what I was getting from the incessant streams of mainstream media and social media reports/opinions.
> 
> The ability of one person to distribute their attention across many orders of magnitude in time/space/link-distance seems limited by our genetics.   We were "designed" to notice things within our hearing and sight and olfactory range and socially we might have magnified/distributed that by being part of a "tribe" and augmented it by hanging out with other creatures (herd animals, pack familiars, birds) that we could trust to alert us to things outside of our sensitivity or distance ranges.    By the time of the early empires we had bureaucracies, frontier scouts, messengers to bring and synthesize events for us from many days or weeks travel away.   We also developed specialized logos to gather/study/analyze/report these things through unique lenses.   The Enlightenment brought a more formalized/normalized approach to all of this while the Age of Exploration expanded the scope and shortened the time-lag.  The Age of Communication and Transportation once again expanded and shrank it all at once.  
> 
> In my own lifetime, space-science and digital comm/storage/computation radically leveraged all that came before it, yet I am still no more able as an individual than most any of those forebearers going back into deep pre-history, to sort it all out.  
> 
> One of my current ponderings is whether the global data/information/knowledge/wisdom synthesis capability of humanity as a collective is developing fast enough to keep up with the implied (destructive or at least dangerously disruptive) effects of the advances implied above.   On a good day I believe we might be winning the Red Queen's Gambit, but then I turn on the news or have a serious chat with Joe Sixpack and feel as if I've fallen under the wheels of her bus.
> 
> Tx to EricS (and others here) articles like this (making studies like this more accessible to the educated layman) are a boon, but remind me of the dynamic-range limitations we all suffer under.
> 
> On a complementary topic, I recognized early on that the global diversity of culture and political style/will meant that we would eventually have a huge amount of data on how different approaches to this class of pandemic would work and in principle, the more enlightened public health systems (even the bureaucratic globalized WHO) could learn very important epidemiological things from it.   A meta-immune system responding to the mis/dis/mal-information that came along with the epidemiological facts of the disease spread itself.  
> 
> DaveW made a point early on that the pandemic was entirely (mostly?) one of mis/dis/mal-information.  I believe he was proven wrong about that as it unfolded but the suspicion that it might be otherwise was not entirely unmotivated or irrelevant.
> 
>  
> 
>  
> 
> Note the mention of racial differences in Vitamin D deficiency.
> 
> ---
> Frank C. Wimberly
> 140 Calle Ojo Feliz, 
> Santa Fe, NM 87505
> 
> 505 670-9918
> Santa Fe, NM
>  
> On Mon, Apr 25, 2022, 11:19 PM Marcus Daniels <marcus at snoutfarm.com <mailto:marcus at snoutfarm.com>> wrote:
> Interesting latitude is a predictive variable..   
>  
> https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7319635/ <https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=https%3a%2f%2fwww.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov%2fpmc%2farticles%2fPMC7319635%2f&c=E,1,eZHGGHSyimcu8LnZj_eoKoNcFBNtrXTAfhy0NED08WJ8hm9thY-eqnyePFIDytvlueFDwpu7y7AMQWVgLzvmUK3ror1suBObfAl_12tU&typo=1>
>  
> 
> On Apr 25, 2022, at 9:31 PM, David Eric Smith <desmith at santafe.edu <mailto:desmith at santafe.edu>> wrote:
> 
>  This came to me over another channel; nice to have: 
>  
>  https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)02796-3/fulltext <https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=https%3a%2f%2fwww.thelancet.com%2fjournals%2flancet%2farticle%2fPIIS0140-6736%2821%2902796-3%2ffulltext&c=E,1,h7wGi7AsxArjZbhRLTUyK3_gChBRNJ-OX8KaCaRyF_fPDUTjvJZuPIgULI5QFQu2l1BDZUGPebHpp1hCMueuqQfLq0nKMmGHAoUdMNg1FGWCCFiRxY3y9g,,&typo=1>
> Table with summary values:
>  https://www.thelancet.com/action/showFullTableHTML?isHtml=true&tableId=tbl1&pii=S0140-6736%2821%2902796-3 <https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=https%3a%2f%2fwww.thelancet.com%2faction%2fshowFullTableHTML%3fisHtml%3dtrue%26tableId%3dtbl1%26pii%3dS0140-6736%252821%252902796-3&c=E,1,C2k7yG9jZhpsy7KvkwQbdGbkqP_NlYRzv-PDXO249sH2kQD9qv4H-NDd-t1gRysJNRwADN1dI3yQ02vbQ1y-scljdVADM7OpP1zfrjNASrx8kJNb&typo=1>
>  
> Eventually, statistical analyses trickle in…
>  
> Eric
>  
>  
> 
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