[FRIAM] Modeling Fascism

[Steve Smith]

for those of us trying to suss out the implications of this, I offer:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shapley_value

I'm not clear on a number of things Jochen:

 1. The Shapley values implies an iterated/cooperative model?
 2. I see how the "training set" from post WWI Europe might be used in
    this context.
 3. How do your assumptions about Trump-era America fit in?
     1. Is the assumption that post WWI (hidden) conditions in Europe
        are similar enough to contemporary Global conditions?

I'm probably missing something (a lot)?

- Steve

On 7/15/22 2:06 PM, Jochen Fromm wrote:
> Today after work I've tried to built a small and simple machine 
> learning model to predict fascism, based on 6 or 7 fundamental 
> features. Using Shapley values we can see which feature contributes 
> the most to the outbreak of fascism. If I enter values which fit to 
> the US under Trump the model indeed predicts a form of authoritarianism.
>
> No big data or deep learning, just a small neural network based on 
> scikit-learn (no Tensorflow, Keras, or Pytorch). Juypter notebook here:
> https://nbviewer.org/github/JochenFromm/JupyterNotebooks/blob/master/ModelingFascism.ipynb
>
> -J.
>
>
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