[FRIAM] what's the view from Europe?
Steve Smith
sasmyth at swcp.com
Sat Mar 5 23:09:16 EST 2022
On 3/4/22 8:29 PM, Marcus Daniels wrote:
>
> https://twitter.com/Kasparov63/status/1499440540290584583
>
I started watching this guy (Beau of the Fifth Column) semi-regularly
months ago even though his affect triggers a lot of my attempts to
ignore my own redneck roots. I don't think I've mentioned him
before... I half expect Glen is already clued in to him. It is hard to
see/hear him without expecting to hear the Trump Train tooting in the
background, but he's quite the opposite. Scary relevant/clued in/clear IMO.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sPzQ1DyGZHs
This "episode" felt like a powerful smack-down of those
(politicians/pundits?) who are rattling "no fly" sabers. To summarize,
my takeaway was "if you think you can establish a no-fly zone in
Ukraine, it would be yonks better to keep your powder dry and do a first
strike because a no-fly *will* be Putin's pretext, even though he'll
likely find another anyway".
In personal anecdote space, Mary's nephew in Madison WI hosted a young
woman from Ukraine as an exchange student a few years ago. They did a
GoFundme to raise the cash to do everything they could to get her out.
She was hunkered down 80 miles East of Kyiv on a farm she was interning
(organic farming) on... all the women and children evacuated fairly
early on but they didn't have room for all so she and another young
woman stayed behind. In the last two days, she worked her way from
there to Lviv (<50 miles from Poland) and hopes to make it to the border
where the current time just standing in line to be processed is order 20
hours (according to her) though Poland has no document requirements...
if you show up at the border and you are not a military age (16-60?) age
male they take your name and try to help you figure out what to do next
I guess. The nephew and wife who are expecting their second child any
day now are trying to get her here to their rural homestead to live
indefinitely. Otherwise (imminent birth) her nephew would be in Poland
to meet her.
My Ukrainian colleagues are still incommunicado with me, but our mutual
colleagues who have remained engaged (Matt and Janire of 4Pi
Productions, some of you met/knew through SFx... English/Spanish) speak
with the non-Russian of the duo (Yuri) every day or two. They are
hyper-focused capable 40-somethings and at least Yuri will be one of the
guys figuring out how to pry the tracks off of tanks with prosumer
drones or something.
I have one other Ukranian (Karkeiv) contact that I have only had one
brief contact with a couple of days ago. She is a lot less resourceful
and in spite of having power, water, even internet (intermittently)
doesn't know what to do beyond hiding in her basement (apartment
building) everytime there is a air raid warning. She wasn't able to
give me enough info in our brief exchange to know how to even begin to
help her personally. Right now financial aid in general (as per Glen's
ideations against over-focusing on only helping people you know) seems
like the "most/least" we can do.
My former NREL colleague (now IOHK/Global ala Cardano/Ada) has 12
colleagues in Ukraine, he only knew of 2 a week ago and a similar or
larger number in Russia) and expects to get more "insider stories" from
both quarters "soon".
This feels much bigger in my lifetime than 9/11, Iraq/Afghanistan,
COVID, even Trump.... maybe it is the proximity in time, or a lifetime
of cold-war spectre.
>
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