[FRIAM] what's the view from Europe?

Mon Mar 7 10:31:25 EST 2022

Yes,
Prof.John Mearsheimer is very insightful and balanced with a deep sense of
history.
His Great Delusion lecture is also entertaining
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nZVIaXFN2lU

In addition to the view from Europe, you may also be interested in the view
from India https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TzgPJeYZaOU

Sarbajit

On Sun, Mar 6, 2022 at 4:45 PM David Eric Smith <desmith at santafe.edu> wrote:

> Let me post this link, without commentary:
>
> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JrMiSQAGOS4
>
> I can listen to it in at least three quite different frames, and it sounds
> starkly different in each from the others.  All three carry information.
>
> Eric
>
>
>
> On Mar 6, 2022, at 12:36 AM, Marcus Daniels <marcus at snoutfarm.com> wrote:
>
> For now, convoys coming out of Poland or other countries can try to
> disguise arms as humanitarian relief.
>
> One could imagine that Javelins could be hidden in small trucks.   It gets
> harder to disguise a MiG-29.
>
>
>
> But there’s no plausible deniability here about Javelins and other weapons
> intended for Ukraine.   The stated intent of NATO and the US is to enable
> Ukrainian armed forces to kill Russian soldiers.   At some point, probably
> relatively soon, it won’t be possible to smuggle large volumes of advanced
> weapons into Ukraine.   Then what?    Wait for Putin to knock on the door
> of a NATO country?   He’ll say, “but I have tactical nuclear weapons”, what
> are you going to do? [1]
>
>
>
> Another option is to declare that convoys to and from Ukraine will get
> NATO escorts.   Then it is on the Russians to escalate:  Don’t you dare
> shoot at us.
>
> I don’t see any way that Putin can be allowed to come out of this.   His
> military needs to be degraded.   It can happen now, or it can happen later.
>   If it happens later there are going to be a lot of dead Ukrainians.   At
> this point I wouldn’t be surprised if he wants it to be a radioactive DMZ.
>
>
>
> Marcus
>
>
>
> [1]
> https://www.russiamatters.org/analysis/escalate-deescalate-part-russias-nuclear-toolbox
> <https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=https%3a%2f%2fwww.russiamatters.org%2fanalysis%2fescalate-deescalate-part-russias-nuclear-toolbox&c=E,1,PxWKDAmEoCIFSYileKZ5Sl9TW55ijLhqOp3ppYEp5U2pBhO5IAHRRSyTY7RylHvaERWm82duXhMhQhaD0SLBMGVCvRZiCrzw1d6RvR-98CM-P2sFkHr5Ew,,&typo=1>
>
>
>
> *From:* Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com> *On Behalf Of *Steve Smith
> *Sent:* Saturday, March 5, 2022 8:09 PM
> *To:* friam at redfish.com
> *Subject:* Re: [FRIAM] what's the view from Europe?
>
>
>
>
>
> On 3/4/22 8:29 PM, Marcus Daniels wrote:
>
> https://twitter.com/Kasparov63/status/1499440540290584583
>
> I started watching this guy (Beau of the Fifth Column) semi-regularly
> months ago even though his affect triggers a lot of my attempts to ignore
> my own redneck roots.   I don't think I've mentioned him before... I half
> expect Glen is already clued in to him.  It is hard to see/hear him without
> expecting to hear the Trump Train tooting in the background, but he's quite
> the opposite.  Scary relevant/clued in/clear IMO.
>
> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sPzQ1DyGZHs
>
> This "episode" felt like a powerful smack-down of those
> (politicians/pundits?) who are rattling "no fly" sabers.   To summarize, my
> takeaway was "if you think you can establish a no-fly zone in Ukraine, it
> would be yonks better to keep your powder dry and do a first strike because
> a no-fly *will* be Putin's pretext, even though he'll likely find another
> anyway".
>
> In personal anecdote space, Mary's nephew  in Madison WI hosted a young
> woman from Ukraine as an exchange student a few years ago.   They did a
> GoFundme to raise the cash to do everything they could to get her out.  She
> was hunkered down 80 miles East of Kyiv  on a farm she was interning
> (organic farming) on... all the women and children evacuated  fairly early
> on but they didn't have room for all so she and another young woman stayed
> behind.    In the last two days, she worked her way from there to Lviv (<50
> miles from Poland) and hopes to make it to the border where the current
> time just standing in line to be processed is order 20 hours (according to
> her) though Poland has no document requirements...   if you show up at the
> border and you are not a military age (16-60?) age male they take your name
> and try to help you figure out what to do next I guess.    The nephew and
> wife who are expecting their second child any day now are trying to get her
> here to their rural homestead to live indefinitely.   Otherwise (imminent
> birth) her nephew would be in Poland to meet her.
>
> My Ukrainian colleagues are still incommunicado with me, but our mutual
> colleagues who have remained engaged (Matt and Janire of 4Pi Productions,
> some of you met/knew through SFx... English/Spanish) speak with the
> non-Russian of the duo (Yuri) every day or two.   They are hyper-focused
> capable 40-somethings and at least Yuri will be one of the guys figuring
> out how to pry the tracks off of tanks with prosumer drones or something.
>
> I have one other Ukranian (Karkeiv) contact that I have only had one brief
> contact with a couple of days ago.  She is a lot less resourceful and in
> spite of having power, water, even internet (intermittently) doesn't know
> what to do beyond hiding in her basement (apartment building) everytime
> there is a air raid warning.   She wasn't able to give me enough info in
> our brief exchange to know how to even begin to help her personally.
> Right now financial aid in general (as per Glen's ideations against
> over-focusing on only helping people you know) seems like the "most/least"
> we can do.
>
> My former NREL colleague (now IOHK/Global ala Cardano/Ada) has 12
> colleagues in Ukraine, he only knew of 2 a week ago and a similar or larger
> number in Russia) and expects to get more "insider stories" from both
> quarters "soon".
>
> This feels much bigger in my lifetime than 9/11, Iraq/Afghanistan, COVID,
> even Trump....   maybe it is the proximity in time, or a lifetime of
> cold-war spectre.
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
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