[FRIAM] selective optimism

[glen]

Yes. The point of quoting the part of the article I quoted, as Marcus noted, Altman exhibits 2 conflicting behaviors: 1) optimism about AI and 2) prepping for apocalypse. One *could* give him the benefit of the doubt. People are complex. He's extracted plenty of rent from the earth. So why not *hedge* and prep for the worst while working to mitigate it?

On the other hand, one might say he's acting in bad faith. There are 2 options there, too. Sarte's bad faith actor is actually fooling himself. So Altman's disintegrated behaviors are evidence that he's lying to himself (as well as us). The cynical take is that Altman's an apocalyptic profiteer, knows the end is coming, has his exploited profits to keep him and his safe, tough luck to the rest of us.

https://futurism.com/the-byte/openai-ceo-survivalist-prepper

I don't really care one way or the other (or gray in betweens). Optimism is poison, though. This recent paper is interesting on that front:

Random Number Simulations Reveal How Random Noise Affects the Measurements and Graphical Portrayals of Self-Assessed Competency
https://digitalcommons.usf.edu/numeracy/vol9/iss1/art4/

Maybe we all think we're better than average. But the lucky compound that by being born on third base, thinking they hit a triple.

On 5/9/23 00:34, Tom Johnson wrote:
> It doesn't have to be either/or. I suspect most likely a mix of the two will evolve as is the case with the whole Digital Revolution.
> TJ
> 
> =======================
> Tom Johnson
> Inst. for Analytic Journalism
> Santa Fe, New Mexico
> 505-577-6482
> =======================
> 
> On Mon, May 8, 2023, 9:43 PM Pieter Steenekamp <pieters at randcontrols.co.za <mailto:pieters at randcontrols.co.za>> wrote:
> 
>     People have different ideas about AI. Naomi Klein thinks that the idea that AI will solve all our problems is a big joke. She thinks the tech people are trying to trick us! She thinks AI is not just a tool but also a creation of the people who made it. Naomi is afraid that if we keep believing in this lie, we won't fix the real problems we have.
> 
>     On the other hand, Sam Altman is excited about AI! He thinks AI can help us solve things like diseases and climate change, and even drive us around and cook for us! He doesn't think AI will take over the world or hurt people. Sam thinks humans will always be in charge of AI.
> 
>     So, who's right? I don't know! My magic ball's batteries are dead, so I can't tell you. But I guess we'll have to wait and see what happens!
> 
>     On Mon, 8 May 2023 at 23:42, Marcus Daniels <marcus at snoutfarm.com <mailto:marcus at snoutfarm.com>> wrote:
> 
>         He's not lying, he is running his softmax function at a higher temperature to collect more samples in the vicinity of the truth.
> 
>          > On May 8, 2023, at 12:50 PM, glen <gepropella at gmail.com <mailto:gepropella at gmail.com>> wrote:
>          >
>          > AI machines aren’t ‘hallucinating’. But their makers are.
>          > https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/may/08/ai-machines-hallucinating-naomi-klein <https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/may/08/ai-machines-hallucinating-naomi-klein>
>          >> Is all of this overly dramatic? A stuffy and reflexive resistance to exciting innovation? Why expect the worse? Altman reassures us: “Nobody wants to destroy the world.” Perhaps not. But as the ever-worsening climate and extinction crises show us every day, plenty of powerful people and institutions seem to be just fine knowing that they are helping to destroy the stability of the world’s life-support systems, so long as they can keep making record profits that they believe will protect them and their families from the worst effects. Altman, like many creatures of Silicon Valley, is himself a prepper: back in 2016, he boasted: “I have guns, gold, potassium iodide, antibiotics, batteries, water, gas masks from the Israeli Defense Force and a big patch of land in Big Sur I can fly to.”
>          >> I’m pretty sure those facts say a lot more about what Altman actually believes about the future he is helping unleash than whatever flowery hallucinations he is choosing to share in press interviews.
>          >


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