[FRIAM] What if Trump Wins?
Barry MacKichan
barry.mackichan at mackichan.com
Sun Nov 3 16:53:16 EST 2024
Thank you for this description of the situation in South Africa. I’ve
never been there, and the amount that appears in the mainstream press
seems to vary with the fashions.
I find the experience with and recovery from the Zuma years somewhat
encouraging. It strikes me as a vaccination of sorts — the disease is
weak enough that the body politic is able to recover and strengthen the
insitutions necessary to prevent a relapse.
I hope our current struggle in the US has the same result. I feel
hopeful right now, but who knows what next Wednesday will feel like. It
was pretty horrible eight years ago.
— Barry MacKichan
On 3 Nov 2024, at 1:25, Pieter Steenekamp wrote:
> Steve,
>
> Here’s my take on the parallels between corruption and efforts to
> tackle it
> in Ukraine and South Africa.
>
> In Ukraine, corruption is really a kind of "inheritance" from Russian
> corruption after the collapse of communism. There weren’t solid
> rule-of-law
> institutions in place to build on, nor any process to establish a
> properly
> functioning state. In Russia itself, that vacuum eventually led to a
> dictatorship where organized crime ran wild.
>
> Ukraine genuinely tried to build a state with values more aligned to
> the
> West, but with the Russian invasion, it’s going to be a long, slow
> journey
> back to normality. Right now, they’re dealing with issues far bigger
> and
> more complicated than just corruption.
>
> In South Africa, we have our own fair share of challenges, but I think
> we’re actually pretty fortunate. Despite many opportunities for
> things to
> go off the rails, there are signs we’re in a relatively good
> position and
> moving in the right direction. I’m not defending apartheid—it was
> wrong and
> oppressive—but we did have functioning institutions and a rule of
> law. For
> example, our financial system, including banking, was strong, and it
> remains solid under democracy. There was a serious setback under Jacob
> Zuma, but the core foundations of our institutions remained intact. As
> I
> mentioned earlier, we now have a central government that’s
> functioning
> well, and the future looks promising. Sure, there are places like
> Johannesburg that aren’t governed well yet, but that’s part of the
> journey.
>
> When I look at countries like Ukraine, I think, if it weren’t for
> people
> like FW de Klerk, who championed a peaceful transition to democracy,
> and
> Nelson Mandela, who managed that transition with incredible skill, we
> could’ve easily fallen into a mess far worse than Ukraine’s
> current
> situation.
>
> And just a quick thought on the U.S. elections: my view, for what
> it’s
> worth, is that the U.S. is doing really well right now. With all the
> checks
> and balances and strong institutions in place, I believe that no
> matter who
> wins, America will keep thriving.
>
> Pieter
>
> On Sat, 2 Nov 2024 at 20:00, steve smith <sasmyth at swcp.com> wrote:
>
>> Pieter -
>>
>> Thanks for the detailed analysis/report of the state of SA
>> socio-politics. It is good for US fat and happy 'murricans to be
>> reminded
>> that the rest of the world has it's own challenges, even those we
>> casually
>> imagine to be "living the good life".
>>
>> I hear a class or style of pragmatism running through the SA national
>> progression and perhaps your own personal experience which I am
>> familiar
>> with. This from my own background and amongst the *myriad* MAGA
>> folks I
>> am at least acquainted with here, if not actually somewhat closely
>> connected (relatives, neighbors, etc.). I'm also a strong idealist
>> in my
>> own ways but either leavened with or schizoided by instinctual
>> pragmatism. I say that as a peacenik who somehow resolved working
>> in the
>> immediate vicinity of nuclear weapons design for order 10+ years
>> before
>> becoming disillusioned with MAD and finally disengaging from that
>> system
>> over the political/corporate corruption only superficially hidden
>> (when
>> Bechtel Corp took possession of most of the US Nuclear Design Jewels
>> in
>> 2006/7).
>>
>> I imagine SA to have some of the same "frontier" ideals/habits that
>> the
>> American West (and south and midwest) to carry. Your
>> end-of-Apartheid
>> is/was very different/similar than our own Civil Rights era and
>> probably
>> still burbling stronger even than our own with all our own unrest.
>>
>> Your level of struggle with corruption makes me think of that
>> reported by
>> the young colleagues I was working with in Ukraine leading up to the
>> 2014
>> moments there.... the ethnically Russian/Ukrainian born-raised one
>> of the
>> pair was adamant: "we are ending our corruption the hard but only
>> way, we
>> are all choosing not to engage in it, if something cannot be done
>> without a
>> bribe, we can outwait the corrupt bribe-takers until they all are
>> starved
>> out of their positions of power". I don't know if it was a right
>> way to
>> act but it felt right-headed in spirit. I also don't know how well
>> it
>> worked out... I got the feeling they had already been on that program
>> since
>> the mid/late 2000 decade? I lost touch at the diffraction point of
>> the
>> Russian invasion but hear through mutual colleagues that they are
>> "thriving" if only in their war resistance efforts. The
>> Russian-Ukranian
>> is likely very loyal to his birthland but it may put him at odds with
>> his
>> parents and extended family.
>> On 11/1/24 11:04 PM, Pieter Steenekamp wrote:
>>
>> Steve,
>>
>> I’d like to address your question: "*Do you identify as a South
>> African
>> (Dutch descent vs. English) with BRICS, or is it a fiction that you
>> and/or
>> South Africa don't buy into? A significant correlation (IMO) among
>> BRICS+
>> nations is strong authoritarianism or at least democratic
>> backsliding." *
>>
>> I’ll start with an executive summary followed by details.
>>
>>
>> *Executive Summary *
>> Under former President Jacob Zuma, South Africa experienced a slide
>> toward
>> autocracy and poor governance, with Zuma developing close ties to
>> Russia.
>> However, the current President Cyril Ramaphosa has shifted the
>> country back
>> to pragmatic governance, actively rooting out corruption and
>> establishing
>> good governance practices. The focus now is primarily on service
>> delivery
>> and addressing everyday issues, with less emphasis on BRICS and other
>> global matters.
>>
>>
>> *A wee bit more details *
>>
>> *Historical Background and BRICS Dynamics *
>> South Africa’s relationship with BRICS has deep historical roots.
>> In the
>> 1980s, liberation movements like the ANC received significant support
>> from
>> Russia and China to overthrow the apartheid regime. The ANC,
>> initially led
>> by Nelson Mandela and later by others, established pragmatic ties
>> with both
>> Western and BRICS countries, leading to South Africa’s membership
>> in BRICS.
>>
>>
>> *Recent Political Developments *
>> In the April general election this year, the ANC lost its outright
>> majority and formed a coalition government with the DA, known as the
>> Government of National Unity (GNU). The ANC secured approximately 40%
>> of
>> the vote, while the DA received around 20%. The GNU also includes
>> several
>> minor parties, but it effectively functions as a coalition between
>> the ANC
>> and DA.
>>
>>
>> *Socio-Political Landscape *
>> *Support Base:* ANC supporters are predominantly Black, while the DA
>> has
>> significant support among white voters, though it also includes Black
>> supporters.
>>
>> As for me personally, I find myself somewhat on the fence: I lean
>> toward
>> supporting the DA, but I also have very high regards for Cyril
>> Ramaphosa’s
>> leadership, focussing on inclusion and good governance, even if I
>> don’t
>> fully support the ANC.
>>
>> *Governance:* The Government of National Unity GNU has been effective
>> in
>> improving service delivery and addressing basic needs. Leadership
>> from both
>> the ANC and DA appears mature and cooperative, working together to
>> enhance
>> the lives of ordinary citizens, despite some exceptions and
>> complexities.
>>
>> *BRICS Conference and Internal Dynamics*
>>
>> Recently, Russia hosted a BRICS conference attended by President
>> Ramaphosa, who displayed warm relations with President Putin. This
>> has
>> caused internal friction within the DA, particularly among its white
>> supporters who strongly oppose Russia’s actions in the Ukraine war.
>> However, the prevailing sentiment is that focusing on service
>> delivery and
>> pressing domestic issues outweighs concerns over South Africa’s
>> implicit
>> support for Putin’s actions. As a result, Ramaphosa’s engagement
>> with
>> Russia is generally accepted without significant controversy.
>>
>>
>> *Specifically addressing your questions *
>>
>> *Governance and Authoritarianism *
>> *Jacob Zuma’s Era*
>>
>> Zuma was marked by corruption and authoritarian tendencies.
>>
>> *Current situation under Cyril Ramaphosa’s Leadership*
>>
>> There is a strong shift toward good governance under Ramaphosa,
>> emphasizing transparency and accountability.
>>
>> *BRICS Relationships:* Historical Support: The support from Russia
>> and
>> China during the liberation struggle has left a lasting positive
>> impression
>> among the majority of Black South Africans.
>>
>> *Current Sentiment*: This historical alliance continues to influence
>> contemporary views, making BRICS relationships generally favorable
>> among
>> the population.
>>
>> *Ramaphosa’s Pragmatism:* Diplomatic Strategy: Ramaphosa’s warm
>> relations
>> with Putin are likely aimed at acknowledging historical support and
>> maintaining strong ties with BRICS nations.
>>
>> *Future Orientation:* His focus appears to be on leveraging Western
>> partnerships to further South Africa’s development based on
>> democratic
>> principles and good governance, distancing the country from
>> authoritarian
>> influences.
>>
>> Pieter
>>
>> On Fri, 1 Nov 2024 at 18:23, steve smith <sasmyth at swcp.com> wrote:
>>
>>>
>>> Pieter -
>>>
>>> It is very useful to me to have the geopolitical parallax you offer.
>>> If
>>> in fact many folks outside the USA see Trump as an effective
>>> negotiator,
>>> up to and including "bullying as negotiation by other means" then
>>> this
>>> is significant and interesting to me.
>>>
>>> As I've referenced a few times, I'm interested in the NATO+/BRICS+
>>> polarization that has emerged. Do you identify as a SA (Dutch
>>> descent
>>> vs English?) with BRICS or is it a fiction that you and/or SA don't
>>> buy
>>> into? A significant correlation (IMO) among BRICS+ nations is a
>>> strong
>>> authoritarianism or at least democratic backsliding. Trump has
>>> already
>>> undermined NATO's stability and will likely do it again, some more
>>> up to
>>> withdrawal/abandonment. Will that lead to "joining" BRICS+? It
>>> seems
>>> unlikely Trump's style suggests he will set himself (with US
>>> economic/military might) up as a third faction in a multipolar
>>> world.
>>>
>>> I'm sympathetic with those who cringe at a Unipolar or even Bipolar
>>> world which has been forming and reforming since WWI it seems? Yet
>>> I
>>> also think we are inevitably becoming a global superorganism? It
>>> does
>>> seem likely that multiple super-organisms will form a dynamic
>>> balance
>>> before they eventually lose their independent identities. Perhaps
>>> that
>>> can only occur fully as humanity (and Terran life in general?) go
>>> extra-planetary?
>>>
>>> I recently listened to an interview with Kimball Musk which expanded
>>> my
>>> appreciation for how complex social dynamics are or have been in SA,
>>> and
>>> how the violence of their childhood was formative for both he and
>>> Elon
>>> (in complementary ways?).
>>>
>>> More parallax is good.
>>>
>>> FWIW I don't think Trump's negotiating style is entirely
>>> ineffective,
>>> obviously he has obtained the power he has through some kinds of
>>> effectuality. My issue is whether "bullying is negotiation by other
>>> means" and whether I want to support or profit from it or be
>>> associated
>>> with it. I rode Elno's coat-tails financially (TSLA stock) for a
>>> while
>>> but finally felt I absolutely had to wipe his cooties off of me...
>>> his
>>> most recent behaviour (starting with Twitter takeover, ramping up
>>> with
>>> dancing giddily on stage with Trump and setting up $1M lotteries to
>>> motivate support) is beyond *my* pale (what a convoluted idiom that
>>> one
>>> is!).
>>>
>>> - Steve
>>>> There seems to be a strong consensus in this group that Trump does
>>>> not
>>>> have a track record of being an effective negotiator, and his
>>>> perceived bullying only reinforces this view. So, contrary to what
>>>> I
>>>> previously suggested, it’s not a separate issue.
>>>>
>>>> This topic has come up in various threads, and I may have
>>>> overlooked
>>>> some of those discussions, which could mean I’ve been asserting
>>>> things
>>>> that differ from what’s already been broadly accepted here.
>>>>
>>>> For now, I’ll step back from this thread and acknowledge that my
>>>> perspective on Trump as an effective negotiator isn’t widely
>>>> shared.
>>>> Let's agree to disagree.
>>>
>>>
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>>
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