[FRIAM] Avoid Glorietta on Wednesday?

[Nicholas Thompson]

-- 

<nthompson at clarku.edu>

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 330 PM MST Mon Nov 4 2024

Wednesday through Saturday...This next fall system has the potential
to drop very heavy snow
<https://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=heavy snow> for this
early in November. A strong ridge
<https://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ridge>
will build over the Pacific Northwest mid-week, forcing a strong and
deep trough <https://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=trough>
southeastward into the Four Corners on Wednesday,
eventually cutting off and stalling out over New Mexico on Thursday.
There is currently some uncertainty on how far south this low
pressure center will go which could affect how far south freezing
temperatures will be able to go as well as the exact location of the
heaviest snowfall amounts. Recent guidance has been trending more
southward in recent runs and as a result forecasted snow amount were
bumped up in farther south along the Sangre De Cristo Mtns
<https://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=Mtns>. and in
the Sandia/Manzano mtns <https://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=mtns>.

Snow showers will begin to make their way southward from the NW on
Wednesday with widespread snow persisting through Thursday north of
I-40 and west of I-25, with valley areas seeing some snow on
Thursday morning. With the upper level
<https://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=upper level> low
center forecast to be
centered over the NM
<https://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NM>-AZ border and a
100 knot <https://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=knot> upper
level <https://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=upper level> jet
<https://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=jet> over
central NM <https://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NM>, there
is plenty of upper level
<https://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=upper level>
diffluence that will
allow for large amounts of precipitation to fall along the eastern
slopes of the Sangre de Cristo Mtns
<https://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=Mtns>. With strong
700mb wind
perpendicular to the mountains on Thursday, plenty of orographic
<https://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=orographic>
forcing to further reinforce the potential for snowfall.

At the surface, a backdoor cold front
<https://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=front> will will push
through the
eastern plains on Wednesday evening and into the early morning hours
on Thursday. as a result an east canyon gap wind is forecast for
central valley areas. These winds look to subside during the mid
day. Blowing snow
<https://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=Blowing snow> is
possible for areas along the central mountains,
but the main area of concern for blowing snow
<https://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=blowing snow> will be
in the
Northeast part of the state especially during the morning commute on
Thursday.

The bullseye for snowfall amounts looks to be along the lower Sangre
De Cristo Mountains, where current guidance is leaning toward the
higher end. This area is currently has a very high chance of
exceeding 12" of snowfall so significant impacts are expected. Storm
total snow amounts for the entire event are extreme for this early
in November, with max amounts in the highest elevations reaching
close to 50 inches.

Temperatures will also drop significantly with the passage of this
system. However, based on the amount of CAA
<https://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CAA> on Wednesday,
there is
still some uncertainty for how widespread freezing temperatures will
remain which could impact snowfall amounts for central NM
<https://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NM>. Overall,
maximum temperatures will be as much as 15 to 25 degrees belownormal
<https://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=normal> for this time
of year at several locations throughout the
state.

The system looks to exist the state by Saturday morning, although
there is some disagreement among the models on the exact timing and
position of the low. Some guidance show that the low could linger a
little bit longer with snowfall continuing into Saturday morning
for northeastern New Mexico. High temperatures will begin to rebound
a bit after Saturday.


https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson
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