[FRIAM] How democracies die

Wed Nov 6 06:49:40 EST 2024

Exactly; each point Jochen makes here is accurate I think.

Pieter also mentioned U.S. spending.  From the data, if I understand it correctly, there isn’t any reduction in spending when the republicans take power.  There are cuts to social services, but the deficits remain large because the tax cuts and non-enforcement on the wealthy result in equal or larger decreases in revenue.  I don’t think it is entirely useful to compare early republican administrations to what we might expect going forward, because the overt venality will presumably be larger now.  How much that matters, relative to the back-door venality before, I don’t know.  I do expect that, for the next floods, fires, and hurricanes, the disaster relief will work less well, and will be withdrawn faster.  Part from incompetence, part from defunding, and part because it will be used for political leverage and vindictiveness.  That will be one way of “saving money”.   I think that is Musk’s method.

One of the things that I wonder about (and could understand better if I put effort into it) is how much of the stability of the dollar depends on foreign investment in bonds by other countries.  I think China currently contributes a lot.  I don’t know how much that depends on confidence.  If it is a lot — new investment needed to maintain interest payments on existing investment — then the shutoff of the new investment could (I imagine) result in a fast unwind of the debt leverage, of the kind we often see in these ramp-crash ratchets.  Does that lead to the abandonment of the U.S. dollar as the main reserve currency, as Marcus forecast?  When, and how fast?  That strikes me as possible, and within the worse-end of the plausible futures.

Eric

> On Nov 6, 2024, at 6:25 AM, Jochen Fromm <jofr at cas-group.net> wrote:
> 
> I don't see any bright side. Yes, I agree that "Trump does what's good for Trump - he doesn’t care much about what’s best for the U.S. or the world". Exactly. My impression is he is a grifter, cheater and liar. What is good for him is not good for Americans. Somehow his voters failed to see it. 
> 
> In my opinion the immigrants were a big factor that made America great. Trump has demonized them in his campaign. Another factor that made America great was that it helped to liberate Europe from Nazism and defended it against totalitarian forms of communism. Trump longs to have power like a dictator in an authoritarian system and generals like Hitler.
> 
> The one thing that will become great is pollution. Even more CO2 emissions, more nuclear waste, and more plastic waste which pollute land, air and sea. Global warming will spiral upwards out of control. More and bigger hurricanes will devaste the heartland and floods will wreak havoc in the cities at the coast. 
> 
> -J.
> 
> 
> -------- Original message --------
> From: Pieter Steenekamp <pieters at randcontrols.co.za>
> Date: 11/6/24 10:25 AM (GMT+01:00)
> To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <friam at redfish.com>
> Subject: Re: [FRIAM] How democracies die
> 
> I totally agree that Trump isn’t exactly a beacon of virtue. But on the bright side (if we can call it that), he’s not driven by a political ideology. Trump does what’s good for Trump—he doesn’t care much about what’s best for the U.S. or the world. And if he needs to throw a country or two under the bus (hello, South Africa?), he won’t think twice. So, South Africa, brace yourself!
> 
> But let’s try to find some good in this situation. Here are a few thoughts:
> 
> a) I’m admittedly a bit of an open-borders extremist—within reason! But I get that many Americans feel differently, just as South Africans are divided about immigration, especially with some of our neighbors facing near-state collapse. The question is, what positives could come from cracking down on illegal immigration? Perhaps it could help those who feel their jobs are at risk or their neighborhoods are changing too quickly. Realistically, though, I don’t see Trump deporting everyone; the backlash would be enormous. More likely, there’ll be tighter border control and screening, which might even turn out to be a net positive.
> 
> b) On Ukraine, I saw Trump’s claim that he’d stop the war in a day, which... let’s just say sounds optimistic. But maybe there’s room for a different approach. Endless funding isn’t exactly resolving things quickly. Could Trump’s, er, unconventional diplomacy (or hardball bullying) possibly shake things up and push for a ceasefire? I’m not predicting peace overnight, but could he use his style to negotiate a better outcome? Stranger things have happened.
> 
> c) Finally, the U.S. economy seems to be on an “endless spending” spree. The national debt’s ballooning, and maybe a financial reckoning is coming? Cutting government waste might actually do some good. Elon Musk claims he could save a trillion dollars—he’s said a few wild things, but maybe he’s onto something here. A leaner, more efficient government wouldn’t hurt.
> 
> On Wed, 6 Nov 2024 at 10:34, Jochen Fromm <jofr at cas-group.net> wrote:
> I woke up today and saw the horrific news on TV that Trump has won again. It is incredibly bad on many levels. It is bad for the environment. The world will not be able to stop global warming without the U.S. It is bad for Ukraine as well. To me it feels like the end of civilization and democracy. The people who voted for him probably do not read Paxton, Arendt or Levitsky and Ziblatt. Or do not care.
> https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/562246/how-democracies-die-by-steven-levitsky-and-daniel-ziblatt/
> 
> I was wondering how this is possible. If we define populism as an ideology that presents "the people" as a morally good force and contrasts them against "the elite", who are portrayed as corrupt and self-serving then this could be a reason why Trump is so successful. He is good at populism because he is corrupt and self-serving himself, and uses projection to accuse others.
> https://www.penguin.co.uk/books/308163/what-is-populism-by-muller-jan-werner/9780141987378
> 
> What do you think? Why have people voted for him although they know what kind of person he his? Are we doomed now? 
> 
> -J.
> 
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