[FRIAM] Javier Milei
Barry MacKichan
barry.mackichan at mackichan.com
Thu Nov 21 10:23:54 EST 2024
One fairly recent test that comes to mind is the “Kansas
Experiment”, 2012-17. There is a Wikipedia article on it.
— Barry MacKichan
On 21 Nov 2024, at 6:31, Pieter Steenekamp wrote:
> I think we all wonder what makes a "good" government. Javier Milei
> seems to
> think the best government is no government at all — an anarchist
> dream!
> He’s very proud of how things are going so far, but honestly, who
> knows
> what’s really happening in Argentina?
>
> I’m also intrigued by Noam Chomsky’s idea of an anarchist
> government. It’s
> funny because while both are called "anarchist," they couldn’t be
> more
> different — like night and day, or maybe coffee and tea.
>
> As for me, I’m not stuck on one idea. I like to see what actually
> works in
> the real world. That’s why I find the "Argentinian experiment" so
> fascinating. I’m keen to see how it plays out — not just for the
> economy,
> but for how people are actually living. Are their lives getting
> better?
> Sure, "wellness" is tricky to measure, but surely being able to meet
> your
> basic needs is a good start, right?
>
> On Thu, 21 Nov 2024 at 12:43, Santafe <desmith at santafe.edu> wrote:
>
>> So the key distillation is that:
>>
>> 1. The public-sector layoffs are real and completed (so, cemented in
>> the
>> past).
>> 2. The offsetting private-sector new jobs are aspirational, something
>> the
>> “administration aims to” accomplish as a consequence of
>> “stimulat[ing]
>> economic growth”. The quotes from Milei use the past tense, as if
>> this
>> were also (like the layoffs) completed, but the AI summary unpacks
>> them as
>> aspirational.
>>
>> Point 2 is a pretty standard neoliberal claim, on which there are
>> many
>> variants. Where the rubber meets the road, then, is determining
>> whether
>> the projected outcomes have been happening, if so how far along they
>> are
>> relative to the claims, and to what extent the causation
>> (stimulation) is
>> supported.
>>
>> Increasingly, going forward, for non-experts to figure out what data
>> are
>> reliable (especially on macro-things), and what kinds of causal
>> analysis
>> are as-valid-as-we-can-expect in these fields, will be both important
>> and
>> difficult.
>>
>> About things that don’t really matter, I don’t mind idly
>> speculating, and
>> it is a fun exercise in arm-chair lucubration. But for stuff that
>> matters,
>> I am increasingly bothered by the fact that I don’t have reliable
>> tracks to
>> do almost-anything in these areas. The thing that fights off a
>> program of
>> atomizing the society, and making people cynical and apathetic, is
>> having
>> the ability to get things right by methods you know and can repeat.
>> Would
>> be nice to build that up.
>>
>> Eric
>>
>>
>>
>>> On Nov 20, 2024, at 7:28 PM, Pieter Steenekamp <
>> pieters at randcontrols.co.za> wrote:
>>>
>>> I asked MS Copilot and she gave the following answer:
>>>
>>> Me:
>>> Please help clarify this for me? In an interview, Javier Milei, the
>> President of Argentina, made two seemingly contradictory claims: (a)
>> 50,000
>> public employees were laid off, and (b) not a single job was lost.
>> How can
>> both statements be true? What actually happened in Argentina over the
>> past
>> year?
>>> MS Copilot:
>>> Javier Milei's statements might seem contradictory at first, but
>>> they
>> can be understood in the context of his broader economic policies and
>> the
>> specific actions taken by his administration.
>>>
>>> What Happened in Argentina
>>>
>>> • Layoffs of Public Employees:
>>>
>>> • Javier Milei's administration laid off a
>>> significant
>> number of public employees. Reports indicate that around 50,000 state
>> employees were laid off as part of his efforts to reduce government
>> spending and streamline the public sector2. This move was part of a
>> broader
>> strategy to cut public spending and reduce the national deficit.
>>>
>>> • Economic Context:
>>>
>>> • Argentina has been facing severe economic
>>> challenges,
>> including high inflation and a struggling economy. Milei's
>> administration
>> has implemented various austerity measures to address these issues,
>> which
>> included reducing the number of public sector employees.
>>>
>>> • Private Sector Job Creation:
>>>
>>> • Despite the layoffs in the public sector, Milei's
>> administration has been focused on creating jobs in the private
>> sector. The
>> claim that "not a single job was lost" likely refers to the overall
>> employment situation, where the administration aims to offset public
>> sector
>> job losses with private sector job creation. This approach is
>> intended to
>> stimulate economic growth and reduce the burden on the state.
>>>
>>> Summary
>>>
>>> While the layoffs of public employees are a fact, the claim that
>>> "not a
>> single job was lost" can be interpreted as an assertion that the
>> overall
>> employment situation has not worsened due to efforts to create jobs
>> in the
>> private sector. This reflects Milei's broader economic strategy of
>> reducing
>> government expenditure while promoting private sector growth.
>>>
>>> Does this help clarify the situation for you?
>>>
>>> References:
>>> 1reason.com2buenosairesherald.com3www.batimes.com.ar
>>>
>>>
>>> On Thu, 21 Nov 2024 at 01:02, Roger Critchlow <rec at elf.org> wrote:
>>> How can you have "laid off 50,000 public employees so far [...]
>>> while
>> [...] not losing jobs."? Are public employees not working at jobs?
>> Are
>> jobs not lost if you destroy them on purpose?
>>>
>>> -- rec --
>>>
>>> On Wed, Nov 20, 2024 at 10:05 AM Marcus Daniels
>>> <marcus at snoutfarm.com>
>> wrote:
>>> Axios may be on to something. MSNBC is more like therapy than
>>> news.
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> From: Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com> on behalf of Pieter
>>> Steenekamp <
>> pieters at randcontrols.co.za>
>>> Date: Wednesday, November 20, 2024 at 8:57 AM
>>> To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <
>> friam at redfish.com>
>>> Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Javier Milei
>>>
>>> Claude deserves some applause for doing a solid job summarizing the
>> podcast — well done! The conclusion, "As with any extreme ideology,
>> a
>> degree of skepticism is warranted until real-world evidence validates
>> the
>> theories," seems pretty spot-on. It’s a good reminder that bold
>> ideas often
>> need to prove themselves in the wild.
>>>
>>> I’m genuinely curious to see how things play out in the next year
>>> or so.
>> Let’s be honest, Argentina could really use a win when it comes to
>> improving things. Fingers crossed for fewer missteps and more
>> meaningful
>> strides forward!
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> On Wed, 20 Nov 2024 at 18:03, glen <gepropella at gmail.com> wrote:
>>>
>>> Nearly 2 hrs? No thanks. Here's Claude's summation, FWIW.
>>>
>>> --------------------
>>> Claim 1: Milei says he came to understand the ideas of freedom and
>> Austrian economics in 2013-2014 after reading works by Rothbard,
>> Mises,
>> Hayek and others. This caused a "revolution" in his thinking.
>>>
>>> Claim 2: Milei describes himself as an anarcho-capitalist in
>>> principle,
>> but a minarchist in practice given real-world constraints. He wants
>> to
>> minimize the state as much as possible.
>>>
>>> Claim 3: Upon taking office, Milei says Argentina had annual
>>> inflation
>> heading towards 17,000%, poverty near 50%, fiscal deficits of 15% of
>> GDP,
>> and was on the brink of hyperinflation and economic collapse.
>>>
>>> Claim 4: Milei says his government achieved fiscal balance in its
>>> first
>> month, cut ministries by over half, laid off 50,000 public employees
>> so
>> far, cut social plans, and reduced inflation from a 17,000% annual
>> rate to
>> 2.4% in six months, all while avoiding price controls and not losing
>> jobs.
>>>
>>> Claim 5: Milei's goal is to make Argentina the freest country in the
>> world through deregulation and free market reforms. He believes this
>> will
>> dramatically increase GDP per capita.
>>>
>>> Claim 6: Milei is aligned geopolitically with the US and Israel,
>>> which
>> he sees as representing freedom and Western liberal democracy against
>> autocracy. He wants stronger trade ties with the US.
>>>
>>> Claim 7: Milei believes free market capitalism is the best system
>>> for
>> human cooperation and prosperity. He rejects the notion of market
>> failures
>> and says neoclassical economics enables harmful government
>> interventions.
>>>
>>> In summary, Milei makes bold claims about rapidly improving
>>> Argentina's
>> economy through free market policies. More data over time is needed
>> to
>> fully assess the results. His broader philosophical arguments express
>> common libertarian/anarcho-capitalist views, which are influential in
>> some
>> circles but rejected by many mainstream economists and experts. As
>> with any
>> extreme ideology, a degree of skepticism is warranted until
>> real-world
>> evidence validates the theories.
>>>
>>> On 11/20/24 01:29, Pieter Steenekamp wrote:
>>>> I’m not entirely convinced this group will be moonwalking with
>>>> joy over
>> Javier Milei’s actions, but I must admit I’m intrigued by what he
>> claims to
>> have achieved in Argentina over the past year, as he shared on Lex
>> Fridman’s podcast: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8NLzc9kobDk <
>> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8NLzc9kobDk> .
>>>
>>> --
>>> ꙮ Mɥǝu ǝlǝdɥɐuʇs ɟᴉƃɥʇ' ʇɥǝ ƃɹɐss snɟɟǝɹs˙
>>> ꙮ
>>>
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