[FRIAM] Tariff blowback

Wed Apr 9 16:26:22 EDT 2025

[image: 2025-04-10 01_51_33-WhatsApp.jpg]

On Wed, Apr 9, 2025 at 11:16 PM steve smith <sasmyth at swcp.com> wrote:

> Gil =
>
> I'm with you bro!   Sortof.  Mostly. Somewhat.
>
> We are definitely entering a "long dark night of the soul", probably a
> notch beyond the events after 9/11/2001 and during the height of COVID, but
> maybe not (quite) the scale of the Great Depression or the Black Plague era
> or that of the Golden Horde sweeping into Europe.
>
> A previous fearless leader (GW Bush) who was mandated into his office in
> 2000 by the Supreme Court (or a handful of hanging chads) put a fine point
> on it when he gave us all $500 (plus or minus) and told us that the "best
> think you can do is go out and spend it!"... making it clear that our most
> important quality as a US Citizen (or resident) is being an over-eager
> consumer.
>
> Most of us will have to delay the refresh of our personal automobile of
> choice, gaming computer or full-featured mobile device for a year or three
> and that will suck in various ways.   Others will watch their
> farm/ranch/sawmill that was in their family for decades go bust (possibly
> after a ridiculous boom for a very few?).  Others are already trying to
> find a new job in a job-market which was just scarred badly by the
> arbitrary firings in the Federal Government, and the cascade effects of
> that haven't even set in.  The tarriffing spree hasn't had a chance to
> "come home to roost" beyond the stock market slump (crash), but it seems
> unavoidable that retail markets will churn violently.  I'm personally glad
> to see consumer products being challenged, but I'm a grumpy old man shaking
> his fence telling the kids with that newfangled frisbee thing to "get off
> my lawn!".
>
> I hope many can (gently) tighten their belts, be more thoughtful of how
> they spend their discretionary  funds (e.g. buy local) where they can and
> take some of the harsh hedges off of the ringing in the system that all of
> this harsh/arbitrary elbow-swinging is causing.
>
> I'm mostly looking for ways to support my friends, neighbors and
> acquaintances as best I can to mitigate the harshest of the consequences of
> their bad decisions (in spite of NM being technically blue, nearly 1/2 of
> the people I meet on the street must have voted for the Felon in 2024)?
>
> Our (refreshed since COVID) small flock of chickens are producing roughly
> twice as many eggs as we consume... gifting them to neighbors has
> stimulated a tiny local gift economy with folks who don't wear their MAGA
> hats too tight BUT do look askance at our Bernie and Harris bumper stickers
> when they come to exchange a loaf of homemade sourdough bread or tureen of
> soup for a dozen fresh eggs.   A small thing but something I think?
>
> Most if not all of my age-peers are moderately dependent on Medicare and
> Social Security and a few entirely.  I also have at least 3 friends who are
> very vulnerable to the loss of public programs and in one case to
> immigration over-enforcement (recently achieved permanent resident
> status).  I'm listening carefully for where I can help them in any way,
> even tiny.
>
> On the other hand, there are several people (including my only sister) who
> I avoid speaking to almost entirely because they continue to apologize/lie
> for their Orange Jesus and his cohort of Billionaire Robber-Barons.   Oh
> well,  I know their (oversized) 401k's are plummeting and can't even gloat!
>
> - Steve
> On 4/9/25 9:59 AM, Gillian Densmore wrote:
>
> That's just the start!
> America, imports a huge amount of things: normally this is perfectly ok.
> Because: Friendly country gets an economy boost, and we get stuff the US
> can't make. Yet, or even at all. In the gaming and somewhat greater tech
> comunities the running joke is: america is bad at turning sand into GPU's
> and motherboards but is great at being Mr.Wallet.
> And honestly that's not bad...per-se. But does meen:be  super congenial
> and even out right friendly to literally every sanely run country.
> Generally (from what I understand) in return they'll send people over: from
> students, to engineers, to marketers etc to pick up the slack where
> companies can't and again we don't know how to do companies make money and
> etc etc.Ie We by you beer, you fix my food truck, food truck offers jobs to
> your company first, and discounts we both end up with win/win.
> In the gaming area: Nvidia and AMD are already charging ridiculously hi
> prices for there stuff both for gamers, and for backgones of companies: I
> didn't know some types of GPU's are mad good at helping network switches
> something about to do with the GPU core propper being Asynchrinous and mad
> good at math dead useful  I have no idea how LOL.
> And then there's uh basic buyers: might need or want a new GPU those
> 700-800 and at the top end 2k GPU's very likely doubling in costs and the
> eh well butterfly effect being: How to body America's way of life: brought
> to you buy a pouty old dude.
>
> On Mon, Apr 7, 2025 at 1:14 PM Jochen Fromm <jofr at cas-group.net> wrote:
>
>> The new tariffs of the Trump administration could blow up Apple. It is a
>> little bit ironic that the administration in an attempt to "make america
>> great again" destroys its most valuable company, isn't it? As everyone
>> knows the supply chains of Apple end in China.
>>
>> https://www.reuters.com/technology/will-trump-tariffs-make-apple-iphones-more-expensive-2025-04-03/
>>
>> I knew that the 2nd term would be catastrophic but I wasn't sure which
>> sort of catastrophe would happen. Apparently it starts with a worldwide
>> economic crisis - which in turn will lead to massive unemployment and
>> inflation.
>>
>> -J.
>>
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