[FRIAM] Limits to Growth

Roger Critchlow rec at elf.org
Tue Jun 3 14:52:05 EDT 2025 

The core problem is that people are greedy little pigs.  Some are greedier
than others and some are more successful in pursuing their greed, but we're
all pigs and if offered the chance to take a little more for ourselves, we
take it.  Scale that up and it's tragedies of the commons all the way down.

-- rec --



On Tue, Jun 3, 2025 at 12:17 PM Jochen Fromm <jofr at cas-group.net> wrote:

> One core problem is we have unleashed global capitalism and seems to
> destroy the planet. Once the planet has been destroyed and polluted it will
> be difficult to restore. Communism does not work because nobody had an
> incentive to work since nobody owned anything. Capitalism does not work
> because nobody has an incentive to protect nature. It means ruthless and
> relentless exploitation of everything to make profit.
>
> As much as I would like to be hopeful about the future I don't see radical
> abundance at all. It is true that AI systems become more and more powerful.
> They soon will be able to take away even the good, creative jobs like
> writing, translating, coding and designing. This means massive
> unemployment. In combination with high inflation this will most likely be
> devastating.
>
> If we look at the past what happened if prices went up radically and jobs
> were lost on a massive scale is that people become outraged and angry and
> then some demagogue comes along and deflects their anger and outrage
> towards group xy [immigrants or black people or LGBTQ folks or some other
> minority group] which is to blame for everything and he is the only man who
> can solve it because he is a strong man, etc. and we end up in a world
> world ruled by strongmen, each of them ruler of a great power having a
> sphere of influence and strategic interest in which they allow no
> opposition. In this autocratic world the big and strong countries decide
> the fate of their smaller neighbors and anyone who disagrees vanishes in an
> artic gulag or horrible prison in mesoamerica.
>
> As Edward O. Wilson said "The real problem of humanity is the following:
> We have Paleolithic emotions, medieval institutions and godlike technology.
> And it is terrifically dangerous, and it is now approaching a point of
> crisis overall."
>
> -J.
>
>
>
>
>
>
> -------- Original message --------
> From: Pieter Steenekamp <pieters at randcontrols.co.za>
> Date: 6/2/25 2:06 AM (GMT+01:00)
> To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <friam at redfish.com>
>
> Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Limits to Growth
>
> It seems I’m the only one here who’s feeling hopeful about the future of
> humanity. I don’t think civilisation is about to fall apart. In fact, I
> believe we’re heading towards a time of radical abundance.
>
> I was going to prove this by asking my crystal ball… but sadly, the
> batteries are flat. So you’ll just have to trust me when I say I know the
> truth, the whole truth, and nothing but the truth.
>
> Of course, many of you probably think you have the real truth. And maybe
> you're right!
>
> I guess the honest thing to say is: the future is unknowable. We can all
> make good arguments, quote experts, and write long replies—but there simply
> isn’t enough evidence to say with high confidence what the future holds for
> humanity.
>
> To end off: yes, I agree that without further innovation, we could be in
> serious trouble. But a strong counterpoint is that, over the last few
> hundred years, human creativity has helped us overcome challenge after
> challenge.
>
> Unless someone shares a new angle I haven’t heard yet, I’ll leave it here
> and won’t post again on this thread.
>
> On Sun, 1 Jun 2025 at 22:41, Marcus Daniels <marcus at snoutfarm.com> wrote:
>
>> Texas uses a lot more electricity than California despite being a smaller
>> economy.   What’s interesting is that there is no one sink for that
>> power.   It isn’t pumping (although there is a lot of pumping), and it
>> isn’t residential air conditioning or data centers.   It’s bigger
>> everything and an appetite to use power across the board.
>>
>>
>>
>> *From: *Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com> on behalf of steve smith <
>> sasmyth at swcp.com>
>> *Date: *Sunday, June 1, 2025 at 12:18 PM
>> *To: *friam at redfish.com <friam at redfish.com>
>> *Subject: *Re: [FRIAM] Limits to Growth
>>
>> As we know, I'm of the school of thought that (techno) Utopian and
>> Dystopian visions are two sides of the same coin:
>>
>> <peak-oil>
>>
>> I think peak oil (fossil-fuels) is a real thing, now matter how much we
>> slide the timescale with innovative ways to suck harder or deeper and burn
>> it more efficiently... and in particular the side-effect of saturating the
>> atmo(bio)sphere with carbon particulates, polymers (e.g. microplastics) and
>> molecules (COn, CH4, etc) and the myriad attendant
>> not-very-healthy-to-most-life chloroflouros and Nitrous-this-n-thats and
>> ... on and on.   We (in our technofuturist way) pretend we have maxwell
>> demons or geni-rebottlers or pandora-box-refillers on the drawing boards
>> which will do their work faster than entropy and in the particular
>> techno-industrial concentrated-energy-fueled version thereof.
>>
>> Fossil fuels made us into an incredibly energy-hungry/wasteful
>> society...   I'm a fan of Switzerland's (nominal) 2000W society
>> (aspiration), although the human *animal's* basal metabolic rate is <100W
>> avg and peaks at 200-300W (burst performance athlete).   The the nominal
>> consumption for the western world is EU (5k) and US (10k) of which a big
>> part from the infrastructure and other "hidden" sources like transport of
>> food/goods across the planet for our appetite and convenience.   The
>> "global south" is considered to make it on 500-1500W.   8B humans at
>> "subsistence" would demand 8tW continuous and at US rates, 80tW
>> continuous.
>>
>> I haven't resolved this against DaveW's numbers but I take his to be
>> order-of-magnitude accurate on principle.  As we add supersonic and
>> orbital-vacation transport I suspect we might jack that another 10X...
>> not to (even) mention power-hungry crypto/AI demands?   GPT (ironic no?)
>> helped me guestimate 40w/user (engaged) continuous *currently*.  A
>> significant fraction of a carbon-frugal "budget" and a measurable plus-up
>> on our gluttonous US (and even EU or CH) versions?
>>
>> </peak-oil>
>>
>> <EV-enthusiasm>
>>
>> I'm a big fan/early adopter (tinkerer really) of "electric vehicles" and
>> renewable energy, but the numbers just don't work.   I was hypermiling my
>> Honda CRX (fit my oversized frame like a slipper or roller skate) long
>> before there were viable production electrics or hybrids.  I had  the back
>> half of a donor CRX ready to receive the rear differential of a miata or
>> rx7 (same stance, similar suspension mounts) with a 90's brushless DC motor
>> as well as a pair of VW cabriolets (running but one lame) as well for the
>> same conception (early 2000s) when I scored a year1/gen1 Honda Insight (and
>> a friend spun the CRX out in the rain)...  so I gave up on my hypermiling
>> (70mpg RT to Los Alamos, power up, coast home) for thoughtful
>> Insight-driving.   All three of these models were order 2k lbs.   Most
>> vehicles are/were 3k-6klbs.
>>
>> Along came the Chevy Volt (2011) and in 2016 I picked one up which had
>> been used up... or at least the hybrid battery (at 166k miles).   A used
>> (95k mile) battery and a lot of tech work and it was back to full
>> function.    The VWs never broke 40mpg hypermiling, the CRX clocked 70mpg
>> in ideal conditions, the Insight topped 50-55mpg with careful driving (hard
>> to hypermile a CVT), and with the PHEV nature of the volt I can still pull
>> >70mpg if I ignore the input from the grid.   The old battery is offering
>> about 10kWh of capacity for a homestead scale PV I'm assembling from $.10/W
>> used solar panels mainly to buffer for the PHEV charging.   Unfortunately
>> the replacement Volt battery is finally getting lame and replacement is
>> such a huge effort this 15 year old vehicle will go the way  of many other
>> 200k mile plus vehicles.   I've backfilled with a low(er) mileage 2014 Ford
>> C-Max PHEV with only about 10 miles (compared to new-30 in the volt) PHEV
>> which I'm getting roughly the same effective MPG (still ignoring the grid
>> input).   I'm looking for a Gen2 Volt which had 50mile EV-only range
>> (otherwise very similar to Gen1) as I might move *all* my semi-local miles
>> to Electric (and supply them with used PV staged through the upcycled EV
>> batteries?).
>>
>> FWIW, the anti-EV stories about the extra weight yielding accelerated
>> brake/tire wear is specious in my experience.  My *driving habits* in an EV
>> (or hypermiled conventional/hybrid) obviate excess tire wear (no spinouts,
>> no uber-accelleration/braking) and even a thoughtless driver likely gets
>> more from regenerative braking than any excess weight abuse...   I also
>> claim that being MPG/consumption attunes my driving habits to
>> fewer/shorter/slower trips.   I have owned a few gas-guzzling vehicles in
>> my life, including one I commuted too far in for a while... the 32 gallon
>> tank convolved with peaking gas prices and a 60 mile RT commute that year
>> should have warned me off...  but instead I just closed my eyes and ran my
>> plastic through the card reader 1.5 times per week... my housing cost
>> differential paid the bill but without regard to the planet.  I did give
>> over to a carpool in a 30mpg vehicle (shared 3 ways) for a while which
>> really beat the 15mpg 1-person I was doing otherwise.   I went through a
>> LOT more tire rubber and brake pads in that context than I ever did in
>> years of hybrid/EV ownership.  Did I say specious?  Or at least
>> apples-orangatans?
>>
>> </EV-enthusiasm>
>>
>> <Alt/Transport ideation>
>>
>> I also have my 750W (foldable) eBike which is (currently) impractical to
>> me (closest services 10 miles of 4 lane) for anything but
>> recreation/exercise and a 300W lower-body exoskeleton, each of which has
>> much better "mpg" in principle (esp eBike) when hybridized with human
>> calorie-to-kinetic conversion.  I've a friend (10 years my senior) whose
>> e-Recumbent-trike with similar specs is his primary mode of utility
>> transport (under 20 miles RT).
>>
>> All that said, I don't think electromotifying 4-6klb hunks of steel and
>> glass with environmental control suitable for 0F-120F comfort for 4+ people
>> while traveling at 60+mph and making 0-60 accellerations in under 6
>> seconds  is really a viable strategy for the 8B folks on the planet we want
>> to sell them to.   Esp with a useful lifetime of <15 years?(planned
>> obselescence aside?).   Maybe robo-taxi/rideshare versions in the context
>> of (mostly) walkable cities (nod to JennyQ) and public transport and
>> general local/regionalism is (semi) viable.
>>
>> </Alt-Transport ideation>
>>
>> <Local/Regionalism>
>>
>>  I've got strawberry plants making me (from compost and sunlight) fewer
>> berries in a season than I just bought at the grocery imported from MX for
>> <$3 (on sale)...  and my while I wait for my 3-sister's plantings to
>> produce a few months of carbs/protein at-best the modern
>> fossil-fuel/pollution global marketplace offers me the same for probably
>> several tens of dollars?   As a seed-saving, composter with a well (that
>> could be pumped by solar but isn't) my impact on planetary boundaries could
>> be nil to positive... but it is hard to scale this up even for myself, much
>> less proselytize and/or support my neighbors in matching me.   I cut Jeff
>> Bezos off from my direct support (via Amazon purchases) when he aligned
>> himself with the other TechBros aligning with the Orange Tyrant, so I may
>> well have reduced my manufacturing/transport appetite/consumption a little
>> (small amounts of that appetite moved to local traditional store-forward
>> versions as well as direct-mail purchases from non-Amazon/big-box
>> distributors).
>>
>> </Local-Regionalism>
>>
>> <TechnoUtopianism>
>>
>> I am a reformed technoUtopian...  I grew up on "good old-fashioned
>> future" science fiction (starting with scientific romances from the early
>> industrial age) and studied and practiced my way into a science education
>> and a technical career/lifestyle and wanted to believe for the longest time
>> that we could always kick the can down the road a little
>> harder/smarter/further each time and/or just "drive faster".   And we are
>> doing that somewhat effectively *still*, but in my many decades I've got
>> more time glancing in the rear-view mirror to see the smoking wreckage
>> behind us, as well as over the horizon to see how many of the negative
>> consequences of our actions land on other folks who never came close to
>> enjoying the benefits of that "progress".   I guess that means this
>> erstwhile libertarian has become a "self-loathing liberal".
>>
>> Or a convert to the Buddhist ideal of "Skillful Means"?
>>
>> </TechnoUtopianism>
>>
>> On 6/1/25 10:10 AM, Marcus Daniels wrote:
>>
>> I think you are underestimating how much progress has been made with
>> batteries in recent years.
>> California has large solar resources, and it is not unusual that during
>> the day the whole grid is powered by solar.  Here is from last week.  Note
>> the huge surge of battery usage in the evening.   Tens of gigawatts of
>> generation power are planned for offshore wind too.
>>
>> Generally, though, I agree that much of the planet is completely addicted
>> to oil, and there’s no technology that will yet handle air travel.
>> Hydrogen might work, but it will take time.
>>
>> The way to break an addiction is to have the addict hit rock bottom.
>>
>> There need to be some scary climate events.  The prices for energy need
>> to increase before people change their ways.  Redirecting energy into AI is
>> one way to bring that to fruition.
>>
>> [image: A chart of different colors Description automatically generated]
>>
>>
>>
>> *From: *Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com> <friam-bounces at redfish.com> on
>> behalf of Prof David West <profwest at fastmail.fm> <profwest at fastmail.fm>
>> *Date: *Sunday, June 1, 2025 at 8:27 AM
>> *To: *friam at redfish.com <friam at redfish.com> <friam at redfish.com>
>> *Subject: *Re: [FRIAM] Limits to Growth
>>
>> Unfortunately, it is almost certain that there will never be enough
>> 'fossil fuel free power stations' to supply needed energy for electric
>> vehicles.
>>
>>
>>
>> Data centers, driven in large part by AI demands and cryptocurrency will
>> leave nothing left over.
>>
>>
>>
>> Some numbers:
>>
>>
>>
>> Three Mile Island, which is being recommissioned to supply  power to a
>> couple of Microsoft Data Centers, has a capacity of 7 Terawatt hours(T/w/h)
>> per year.
>>
>>
>>
>> In 2022 data centers, globally, consumed 460 TWh, by 2026 this is
>> estimated to be  1,000 Twh. By 2040 projected demand is 2,000-3,000 TWh.
>>
>>
>>
>> Crypto adds 100-150 TWh in 2022, 200-300 in 2030, and 400-600 in 2040.
>>
>>
>>
>> Nuclear is unlikely to provide more than 25% of this demand.
>>
>>
>>
>> Between now and 2040, it will be necessary to build 100 TMI-capacity
>> nuclear plants to supply that 25%.
>>
>>
>>
>> If solar is to supply the other 75%, it will require between 66,000 and
>> 80,000 square miles of solar panels. (Don't know how many batteries, but
>> the number is not trivial.)
>>
>>
>>
>> Wind power, for that 75%, will require 153,000 to 214,000 turbines, each
>> requiring 50-60 acres of space beneath them. (Also the problem of
>> batteries.)
>>
>>
>>
>> It takes 10-15 years to build a nuclear plant like TMI, have no idea now
>> many dollars.
>>
>>
>>
>> Neither solar nor wind, nor combined, can be installed fast enough to
>> meet this demand and, again, have no idea of cost.
>>
>>
>>
>> Nothing left over for cars, the lights in your home and office, or to
>> charge your phone: unless, of course we continue to rely on oil (shale and
>> fracking), natural gas, and coal.
>>
>>
>>
>> davew
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>> On Sun, Jun 1, 2025, at 6:24 AM, Pieter Steenekamp wrote:
>>
>> This is why I’m so excited about electric vehicles—I feel like a kid
>> waiting for Christmas! Add clean fossil fuel free power stations into the
>> mix, and voilà: abundant clean energy, no miracle inventions required. Just
>> some clever tech and a whole lot of charging cables!
>>
>>
>>
>> On Sun, 1 Jun 2025 at 12:57, Jochen Fromm <jofr at cas-group.net> wrote:
>>
>> I believe we all have a slighty distorted view because we were all born
>> long after industrialization has started and have seen nothing but growth.
>> Industrialization started around 200 years ago in Great Britain and spread
>> shortly after to America and Europe. First by exploiting coal and steam
>> engines, later by oil and petrol engines. Tanks, warplanes, warships as
>> well as normal cars, planes and ships all consume oil.
>>
>>
>>
>> Richard Heinberg writes in his book "The End of Growth": "with the fossil
>> fuel revolution of the past century and a half, we have seen economic
>> growth at a speed and scale unprecedented in all of human history. We
>> harnessed the energies of coal, oil, and natural gas to build and operate
>> cars, trucks, highways, airports, airplanes, and electric grids - all the
>> esential features of modern industrial society. Through the one-time-only
>> process of extracting and burning hundreds of millions of years worth of
>> chemically stored sunlight, we built what appeared (for a brief, shining
>> moment) to be a perpetual-growth machine. We learned to take what was in
>> fact an extraordinary situation for granted. It became normal [...] During
>> the past 150 years, expanding access to cheap and abundar fossil fuels
>> enabled rapid economic expansion at an average rate of about three percent
>> per year; economic planners began to take this situain for granted.
>> Financial systems internalized the expectation of growth as a promise of
>> returns on investments."
>>
>> https://richardheinberg.com/bookshelf/the-end-of-growth-book
>>
>>
>>
>> Heinberg argues the time of cheap and abundant fossil fuels has come to
>> an end. There 1.5 billion cars in the world which consume oil and produce
>> CO2. Resources are depleted while pollution and population have reached all
>> time highs. It is true that humans are innovative and ingenious, especially
>> in times of scarcity, necessity and need, and we are able to find
>> replacements for depleted resources, but Heinberg argues in his book "Peak
>> Everything: that "in a finite world, the number of possible replacements is
>> also finite". For example we were able to replace the whale oil by
>> petroleum, but finding a replacement for petroleum is much harder.
>>
>> https://richardheinberg.com/bookshelf/peak-everything
>>
>>
>>
>> Without oil no army would move, traffic would cease, no container or
>> cruise ship would be able to go anywhere and therefore international trade
>> and tourism would stop. On the bright side no more plastic and CO2
>> pollution either.
>>
>>
>>
>> In his book "End of Growth" Heinberg mentions "transition towns" as a
>> path towards a more sustainable society and an economy which is not based
>> on fossil-fuels.
>>
>> https://donellameadows.org/archives/rob-hopkins-my-town-in-transition/
>>
>>
>>
>> French author Victor Hugo wrote 200 years ago that "the paradise of the
>> rich is made out of the hell of the poor". If rich people start to realize
>> this and help to find a way to a more sustainable, livable society it would
>> be a start.
>>
>>
>>
>> -J.
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>> -------- Original message --------
>>
>> From: Pieter Steenekamp <pieters at randcontrols.co.za>
>>
>> Date: 5/31/25 5:46 AM (GMT+01:00)
>>
>> To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <friam at redfish.com
>> >
>>
>> Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Limits to Growth
>>
>>
>>
>> I’ve always loved the Simon-Ehrlich bet story—two clever guys betting on
>> the future of the planet. Ehrlich lost the bet, but the debate still runs
>> circles today.
>>
>>
>>
>> https://ourworldindata.org/simon-ehrlich-bet
>>
>>
>>
>> This article nails it: over the long term, prices mostly go down, not up,
>> as innovation kicks in. We don’t "run out" of resources—we get better at
>> using them. Scarcity shifts, but human creativity shifts faster.
>>
>>
>>
>> The Limits to Growth folks had good intentions, but the real limit seems
>> to be how fast we can adapt and rethink. And so far, we’re doing
>> okay—messy, uneven, but okay.
>>
>>
>>
>> Turns out, betting against human ingenuity is the real risky business.
>>
>>
>>
>> On Fri, 30 May 2025 at 21:51, steve smith <sasmyth at swcp.com> wrote:
>>
>>
>>
>> REC -
>>
>> Very timely...  I did a deep dive/revisit (also met the seminal work in
>> college in the 70s) into Limits to Growth and World3 before the Stockholm
>> workshop on Climate (and other existential threats) Complexity Merle
>> wrangled in 2019....  and was both impressed and disappointed.   Rockstrom
>> and folks were located right across the water from us where we met but to
>> my knowledge didn't engage... their work was very complementary but did not
>> feel as relevant to me then as it does now.
>>
>> In the following interview, I felt he began to address many of the things
>> I (previously) felt were lacking in their framework previoiusly.  It was
>> there all the time I'm sure, I just didn't see it and I think they were not
>> ready to talk as broadly of implications 5 years ago as they are now?
>>
>> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i6_3mOgvrN4
>>
>> Did anyone notice the swiss village inundated by debris and meltwater
>> from the glacier collapse uphill?   Signs of the times or "business as
>> usual"?
>>
>> - SAS
>>
>> On 5/30/25 12:16 PM, Roger Critchlow wrote:
>>
>>
>> https://thenextwavefutures.wordpress.com/2025/05/20/limits-to-growth-was-right-about-overshoot-and-collapse-new-data/
>>
>>
>>
>> I remember the Limits to Growth from my freshman year in college.  Now
>> Hackernews links to the above in which some people argue that we've
>> achieved the predicted overshoot for the business as usual scenario and the
>> subsequent collapse begins now.  Enjoy the peak of human technological
>> development.
>>
>>
>>
>> -- rec --
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
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