[FRIAM] A Simple Look at the U.S. Debt and Deficit

Thu Jun 19 12:22:02 EDT 2025

Nice quote. And interesting book. Will have a look at it. As Cervantes said "There is no book so bad that it does not have something good in it", but some are certainly more interesting than others.https://library.oapen.org/bitstream/20.500.12657/42090/3/9781000201611.pdf-J.
-------- Original message --------From: Pieter Steenekamp <pieters at randcontrols.co.za> Date: 6/19/25  12:47 PM  (GMT+01:00) To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <friam at redfish.com> Subject: Re: [FRIAM] A Simple Look at the U.S. Debt and Deficit Nope — no relation to Elon.Sure, capitalism certainly has its dark side, same goes for socialism, right? it's humans running it after all. And we humans have this nasty habit of lying to ourselves.I'm quoting from "Making sense of world history" by Rick Szostak." Humans have this incredible capacity for self-deception. Our subconscious thoughts can guide us to act in ways that are cowardly, malicious, or jealous even if we would consciously disdain cowardice, malice and jealousy. Why did a mental capacity for self-deception evolve in humans? One theory is that self-deception aids us in other-deception. Humans have been selected for cooperation, and therefore selected to give and observe cues regarding dishonesty. As discussed above, we will feel guilty for lying (that is, violating a cultural value favouring honesty), and display this guilt physically. Human cooperation would be difficult if we lack any ability to discern when others were lying. While cooperation depends on some degree of confidence in the honesty of others, individual success can nevertheless rely on some ability to cheat. In the complex evolution of human beings, then, we can expect selection pressure for both (detection of) dishonesty and dishonesty. Difficulty in consciously lying would encourage the cooperation on which human societies depend. Ability to lie subconsciously would be individually advantageous, and the limits it imposes on human cooperation might not prevent hunting or gathering on group decisions. We might then lie to ourselves that our selfish acts are actually in the interest of others. We will then be much better able to convince others of our good intentions, for we will not doubt it ourselves. We will not then give visual hints of deception. "Obviously, this email group is not included in this bad, lying part of humanity - no way! On Thu, 19 Jun 2025 at 08:54, Jochen Fromm <jofr at cas-group.net> wrote:Your post reminded me of Elon, Pieter. You are not related to him by the way?You mentioned freedom, opportunity, and innovation in the land of the free and the home of the brave. Innovation certainly thrives in raw, unchecked capitalism. It has a dark side though: on a global scale it causes inevitably the destruction of nature and natural ecosystems. The gigantic debt is a sign of impending collapse. There is a dark side of freedom too. Donald Trump embodies this dark side of freedom: the freedom to lie, to deceive and to betray, to grift and to cheat. The freedom to be mean and cruel, to be vicious and malicious. The only thing he is good at is marketing of himself, and marketing can be considered in my opinion as the art of lying. Or what else is a fast food chain doing that spends millions on ads which convince people how good their products are by showing happy and healthy people consuming their products.If you think of the classic "Dr Jekyll and Mr Hyde" story from Scottish writer Robert Louis Stevenson then Mr. Trump is perhaps the Mr. Hyde of America. Incidentally there is a nice new biography from Robert L. Stevenson and his American wife named "A Wilder Shore: The Romantic Odyssey of Fanny and Robert Louis Stevenson" by Camille Perihttps://lareviewofbooks.org/article/falling-in-love-with-fanny-and-robert-louis-stevenson/-J.-------- Original message --------From: Pieter Steenekamp <pieters at randcontrols.co.za> Date: 6/19/25  7:26 AM  (GMT+01:00) To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <friam at redfish.com> Subject: [FRIAM] A Simple Look at the U.S. Debt and Deficit I want to share a few thoughts about the United States. I’m not a supporter of Donald Trump, but I am a big supporter of the United States as a country. I admire the ideas of freedom, opportunity, and innovation that the U.S. represents. It honestly makes me a little sad that Americans don’t seem to elect better leaders. Out of all the smart and capable people in that country, surely they can find someone more inspiring and responsible. But I suppose that’s how democracy works—people choose, and sometimes the results aren’t great.Even with leadership that I don’t always agree with, I still think the U.S. is doing well overall. I believe the U.S. is still the best hope we have for a country that can lead the world in a positive direction. And to me, that leadership matters a lot—especially because I wouldn’t want to see a country like China, which doesn’t value individual freedom or human rights, becoming the world’s main superpower. Europe is important too, but I don't think it's strong enough on its own to lead the free world. Maybe India could grow into that role someday, but right now, the U.S. is still our best hope.That’s why I get concerned when I look at the U.S. government’s spending habits. Right now, they are spending much more than they earn in taxes, year after year. Over time, those deficits pile up into debt—a very large amount of money that the country owes.You might think: “Come on, the U.S. is too powerful to fail.” But that’s not how money works. Even big, powerful countries can run into serious problems if they don’t manage their finances well. And while I don’t believe the U.S. is in danger of a crash tomorrow, it’s clear that the growing debt and constant deficits are becoming a real problem.Lynn Alden said it well in her latest newsletter (https://www.lynalden.com/june-2025-newsletter/ ):"We’re not at the point where the debt or deficits are going to cause a massive train wreck any time soon. However, we are well into the era where the deficits do matter and have consequences."In other words: No need to panic yet—but we can’t ignore the problem either.If the U.S. wants to keep leading the world—and I hope it does—it needs to start taking its finances more seriously. The country is not “too big to fail.” And if it does stumble, the world could be left without strong and fair leadership. That’s a risk none of us should take lightly.
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