[FRIAM] Back at the ranch, I'm enjoying the popcorn.
Pieter Steenekamp
pieters at randcontrols.co.za
Wed Mar 5 21:52:35 EST 2025
Of course, ending the war is a worthy goal! But let’s be real—there have to
be some conditions. If "ending the war" means Ukraine just gives up and
hands everything to Russia, then that’s not exactly a win, is it? As
Zelensky put it:
"Nobody wants an endless war. Ukraine is ready to talk and find a way to
real peace as soon as possible. And honestly, no one wants peace more than
Ukrainians. My team and I are ready to work with President Trump to get a
peace deal that actually lasts."
In other words—yes to peace, but not the kind where you wave a white flag
and hope for the best!
On Thu, 6 Mar 2025 at 04:41, Marcus Daniels <marcus at snoutfarm.com> wrote:
> It is an assumption that ending the war is a worthy goal.
>
> On Mar 5, 2025, at 6:33 PM, Pieter Steenekamp <pieters at randcontrols.co.za>
> wrote:
>
>
> Ah, now I see how it works!
>
> If Trump's actions accidentally lead to a good outcome—well, that’s just
> an unintended consequence.
> If things go south, though—obviously, it’s all Trump’s fault.
> Conclusion? Trump is bad, no matter what.
>
> How about we skip the pre-packaged outrage and just focus on what he’s
> actually doing to end the war in Ukraine? Crazy idea, I know.
>
>
> On Wed, 5 Mar 2025 at 18:16, Marcus Daniels <marcus at snoutfarm.com> wrote:
>
>> What did Zelensky get for it? Trump cuts off U.S. ISR. One of the
>> things that Europe cannot replace.
>>
>>
>>
>> *From:* Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com> *On Behalf Of *Pieter
>> Steenekamp
>> *Sent:* Wednesday, March 5, 2025 5:28 AM
>> *To:* The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <
>> friam at redfish.com>
>> *Subject:* Re: [FRIAM] Back at the ranch, I'm enjoying the popcorn.
>>
>>
>>
>> Another round of popcorn, please—the plot thickens.
>>
>> After Friday’s tantrum in the White House, Zelensky has decided to toe
>> the line.
>>
>> Start quoting Zelensky (
>> https://x.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1896948147085049916)
>>
>> I would like to reiterate Ukraine’s commitment to peace.
>>
>> None of us wants an endless war. Ukraine is ready to come to the
>> negotiating table as soon as possible to bring lasting peace closer. Nobody
>> wants peace more than Ukrainians. My team and I stand ready to work under
>> President Trump’s strong leadership to get a peace that lasts.
>>
>> We are ready to work fast to end the war, and the first stages could be
>> the release of prisoners and a truce in the sky—a ban on missiles,
>> long-range drones, and bombs on energy and other civilian infrastructure—as
>> well as an immediate truce at sea, if Russia does the same. Then we want to
>> move very fast through all the next stages and work with the US to agree on
>> a strong final deal.
>>
>> We truly value how much America has done to help Ukraine maintain its
>> sovereignty and independence. And we remember the moment when things
>> changed—when President Trump provided Ukraine with Javelins. We are
>> grateful for this.
>>
>> Our meeting in Washington, at the White House on Friday, did not go the
>> way it was supposed to. It is regrettable that it happened this way. It is
>> time to make things right. We would like future cooperation and
>> communication to be constructive.
>>
>> Regarding the agreement on minerals and security, Ukraine is ready to
>> sign it anytime and in any convenient format. We see this agreement as a
>> step toward greater security and solid security guarantees, and I truly
>> hope it will work effectively.
>>
>> End quote
>>
>> I’m particularly pleased about this because I believe Trump’s peace deal
>> could lead to a very good outcome. Here’s why:
>>
>> - The war continues to exact a heavy toll on both Ukraine and Russia, in
>> both human lives and economic impact.
>> - The risk of escalation into a catastrophic scenario—such as nuclear
>> conflict or even World War III—is significantly reduced.
>> - In many ways, Russia has already lost. Their goal was to capture Kyiv
>> and control all of Ukraine, but that is now completely unrealistic. Their
>> economy is in ruins, they’ve lost thousands of soldiers, and Putin has
>> broken the social contract with Russian citizens. Another invasion? All but
>> impossible.
>> - Putin’s global standing is in shambles. Before the invasion, he and Xi
>> were the two key leaders of BRICS. Now, Xi stands alone—one less adversary
>> to worry about.
>>
>> Take a minute to think about it. Until now, Zelensky seemed determined to
>> continue the war with no clear end in sight. How long did he think it could
>> go on? At what cost? Now, he’s backing Trump’s peace initiative. Maybe it
>> will fail, and the war will continue—but surely, it’s worth a shot. Right?
>>
>>
>>
>> On Wed, 5 Mar 2025 at 04:16, Marcus Daniels <marcus at snoutfarm.com> wrote:
>>
>> You’ve got one job Deep State. One Job.
>>
>>
>>
>> *From: *Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com> on behalf of steve smith <
>> sasmyth at swcp.com>
>> *Date: *Tuesday, March 4, 2025 at 5:03 PM
>> *To: *friam at redfish.com <friam at redfish.com>
>> *Subject: *Re: [FRIAM] Back at the ranch, I'm enjoying the popcorn.
>>
>>
>>
>> On 3/4/25 10:15 AM, Tom Johnson wrote:
>>
>> You're assuming the ongoing presence of Trump and Putin.
>>
>> I don't know about Putin, but Trump is a cult leader. If something
>> happens to him, Vance etc al. can't carry the water.
>>
>> I agree, nobody able to carry Trump's nor Putin's water (as it were)...
>> a bit of a red=herring at that point... some wild card might appear out of
>> nowhere and (mis)fill the void in some unexpected way (e.g. Asimov's "Mule"
>> of "theFoundation"?)
>>
>> One tiny anueurism or a dose of pollonium in the diet coke or some
>> Ioicane Powder and the modern world diffracts off into some strange new
>> basin of attraction we haven't even imagined?
>>
>> *Viva la punctuated equllibrium!*
>>
>>
>>
>> T
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>> =======================
>> Tom Johnson
>> Inst. for Analytic Journalism
>> Santa Fe, New Mexico
>> 505-577-6482
>> =======================
>>
>>
>>
>> On Mon, Mar 3, 2025, 9:44 PM steve smith <sasmyth at swcp.com> wrote:
>>
>> Friday afternoon the simple term "WWIII" took on a whole new
>> understanding/context for me.
>>
>> Before that it was some variation on a nuclear exchange between any 2-3
>> of the major nuclear powers (US/USSR/China) which was held at bay mostly by
>> variations on MAD. Not only did the possibility of retaliation (before
>> first-strike lands, or soon after) make it unthinkable, but so did the
>> challenges of regional and global nuclear contamination and a likely
>> nuclear winter (minimum of northern hemisphere, but global consequences).
>>
>> Now I see it being something more like a new European War similar to WWI
>> & WWII, not involving North America directly (we don't pitch nor catch any)
>>
>> 1. Europe sends in air and ground troops (and more equipment) to
>> Ukraine to squash Putin's vestigal army. Marcus' no-fly-zone.
>>
>>
>> 1. Ukraine continues to punish Russia (e.g. destroying military
>> assets inside Russia)
>> 2. The European coalition masses conventional forces on Russian
>> borders with a "ready posture"
>> 3. Russia is humiliated.
>> 4. Putin (not Russia) in his humiliation decides to use his
>> nukes... craters half the major cities or capitols in UK/EU.
>> 5. France and UK have a *handful* of nukes. I'm out of date, most
>> or all are on nuclear subs which Russia may or may not know the location of.
>> 6. Moscow and a few 'grads become craters.
>> 7. Nuclear Winter
>> 8. Misery across Eurasia, the likes of which Russians are more
>> accustomed
>>
>>
>> 2. Europe can't agree enough to give Ukraine decisive support (as in
>> 1 above).
>>
>>
>> 1. Russia grinds Ukraine down, while using up yet more of it's own
>> dwindling military and human capital.
>> 2. Europe and Russia rattle sabers for months or years but Russia
>> is too depleted to continue a conventional war.
>> 3. Russia (Putin) gets impatient or arrogant and decides to nuke
>> European powers.
>> 4. Again, the handful of non-US nukes targeted on Russia are
>> enough to make a bad mess and maybe even win but only if used pre-emptively.
>> 5. (Western) Eurasia is a mess for a century.
>>
>>
>> 3. In either case MAGA (with/without Trump alive/vital/engaged) sits
>> back and eats popcorn.
>>
>>
>> 1. If MAGA holds US power, they grind away at European and possibly
>> Russian resources, stealing and war profiteering boldly.
>> 2. Maybe anti-MAGA backlashes MAGA out of power (probably has to
>> be a strong political win followed by some minor but decisive bloodshed).
>> Maybe we help them rebuild (similar to post-WWII) or maybe we just sit back
>> on our side of the Ocean.
>>
>>
>> 4. China waits patiently for the right moment to grab Mongolia for
>> it's "raw earth" (trump SIC) and/or Taiwan.... possibly are both worth
>> their effort... possibly the US uses the European distraction as an
>> opportunity to treat China as our only overt competitor.
>>
>> I don't see the world "a better place" for any of this except in the
>> extreme case of significant depopulation of both (sadly) third-world
>> innocents and first-world belligerents (military, political, economic), and
>> even then it isn't clear to me just *when* or *how* the "meek inherit the
>> earth" but I'll be damned if it isn't an outcome I find myself rooting
>> for! Feels like if COVID had just been slightly more virulent, we might
>> have gotten there by a vaguely more graceful route?
>>
>> GAH!
>>
>>
>>
>> On 3/3/25 9:10 PM, Marcus Daniels wrote:
>>
>>
>> 1. NATO creates a no-fly zone over Ukraine, and destroys any Russian
>> asset in Ukraine
>> 2. The Ukranians continue to develop their drone programs for
>> targeted attacks in Russia
>> 3. Europe gives them long-range weapons, Storm Shadow and Taurus for
>> larger targets
>>
>>
>>
>> Biden should have just done this, knowing that Trump would throw the
>> world into chaos.
>>
>>
>>
>> *From:* Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com> <friam-bounces at redfish.com> *On
>> Behalf Of *Pieter Steenekamp
>> *Sent:* Monday, March 3, 2025 7:50 PM
>> *To:* The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group
>> <friam at redfish.com> <friam at redfish.com>
>> *Subject:* Re: [FRIAM] Back at the ranch, I'm enjoying the popcorn.
>>
>>
>>
>>
>> A Case For and Against Trump in the Context of Ukraine
>>
>> The Case Against Trump
>> Russia invaded Ukraine, and Ukraine has been fighting back heroically for
>> three years. It is crucial to take decisive action against countries that
>> invade others unprovoked. A good example is the First Gulf War, when Iraq
>> invaded Kuwait, and the U.S. led a coalition to push Iraq out. That kind of
>> response helps maintain international order.
>>
>> However, Trump now portrays Ukraine as the aggressor and openly aligns
>> himself with Putin. His stance undermines the principle of standing against
>> aggression and emboldens authoritarian regimes. His willingness to cozy up
>> to Putin is simply wrong. Period.
>>
>> The Case For Trump
>> Maintaining international order is important, but only if you have the
>> power to enforce it effectively. If you can't win a war, engaging in it is
>> a mistake. Consider how the U.S. aligned with Stalin in the later stages of
>> World War II—not because Stalin was good, but because confronting him
>> directly wasn’t a realistic option at the time. Putin may be an amateur
>> compared to Stalin, but the logic remains: if you can’t stop him, you may
>> have to find a way to work with him.
>>
>> Looking at today's reality, there is no viable path to pushing Russia out
>> of Ukraine unless the U.S. commits fully—boots on the ground. But no one in
>> America supports that. Given this, there’s a case for engaging with Russia
>> pragmatically, much like how the U.S. dealt with Stalin, to bring the war
>> to an end.
>>
>> Continuing to support Ukraine half-heartedly, without full military
>> commitment, has serious downsides. The war could drag on indefinitely, and
>> if Ukraine eventually wins, Russia would be humiliated. A humiliated
>> nuclear-armed Russia is a dangerous prospect. History offers a
>> warning—Germany’s humiliation after World War I directly contributed to the
>> rise of Hitler. The consequences of a humiliated Russia could be similarly
>> unpredictable and catastrophic.
>>
>> My Take
>> In my lifetime, we had an almost perfect leader in South Africa—Nelson
>> Mandela. Unfortunately, he is no longer with us. But surely, with today's
>> AI, we could create a virtual Madiba, and he would know exactly what to do.
>>
>>
>>
>>
>> On Mon, 3 Mar 2025 at 22:28, Tom Johnson <jtjohnson555 at gmail.com> wrote:
>>
>> So as usual: Follow the Money.
>> If Trump gets a deal with Ukraine on those rare earth minerals, upon
>> leaving Ukraine, where does that ore go and to whom? My bet is to some
>> company(ies) that Trump et al. have interests in.
>>
>> TJ
>>
>>
>>
>> On Mon, Mar 3, 2025 at 12:33 PM Santafe <desmith at santafe.edu> wrote:
>>
>> It’s such an encapsulation of that part of the society (including t and
>> v) to think that they could “humiliate” Zelenskyy. By insisting, in a
>> conversation with toxic scum, on the relevance of reality, he was about the
>> only clean thing in the room that could be heard.
>>
>> There are people like Fareed Zakaria who think that trump can be somehow
>> managed by a canny player. That doesn’t ring correct to me, unless the
>> player has a lot of power and money, and it is the power and money that are
>> managing trump. No agreement with trump is worth the paper it is written
>> on. We all understand that he will do anything he is not stopped from
>> doing. The problem with the american presidency is that there become fewer
>> and fewer actors who can stop its occupant from doing things, in the era of
>> political parties as universalizing corrupting bodies. If this whole train
>> continues, they will eventually degrade the u.s. in wealth and power enough
>> that its ability to do damage declines. But there is so much accumulated
>> right now, that they can do enormous harm before they undercut themselves.
>>
>> I am persuaded by those who opine that trump has no intention of doing
>> anything to aid Ukraine, and that the point of the performance was to put
>> up a front for not doing anything, for the same audience who interprets any
>> of that as a humiliation of Zelenskyy. If trump could extort money or
>> resource access, and then backstab in return for it, I expect he would be
>> interested in that opportunity. But not more than that.
>>
>> I also think that people are living a little bit in the past when they
>> comment that, with trump, it’s always about money. That was before the
>> first presidency, when his possibilities to exercise abusive power over
>> other people in a country with some degree of rule of law was limited,
>> relative to the amount of spending he could do (whether solvent or
>> insolvent). But the access to abusive power in the presidency, for a
>> sociopath, is on a scale not available to anybody else. If money was
>> heroin for that addiction, the power of the presidency is fentanyl, and I
>> don’t think trump is going back now. Money: fine; but that’s now the
>> second motive.
>>
>> (I think there are elements of this for Musk as well, but there is enough
>> about him that is different that I wouldn’t put him in the same category,
>> or in the same post here.)
>>
>> I, of course, don’t _know_ anything, and I don’t even have any
>> sophistication thinking in this sphere. But from my long distance from it,
>> I can imagine that the calculus is roughly this at the moment: It is still
>> possible that trump won’t direct the u.s. military to attack Ukraine
>> directly. The question whether it is possible comes back, entirely, to
>> what force is available to stop him from ordering it. I don’t doubt for a
>> minute that, if the EU starts to get scared, and if they have time to act
>> constructively, enough to start to give Ukraine meaningful ability to hold
>> land or push back a bit, the u.s. under trump would act as a saboteur of
>> that effort.
>>
>> If that is the correct vantage point, I would imagine that Zelenskyy’s
>> challenge is to try to orient the rest of the world into some structure
>> that will hem trump and the trumpers in as much as possible from direct
>> attack, and where possible against sabotage. (Sabotage is harder, because
>> to even find out that it is going on, you need somebody on the inside to
>> report.) If they can get some weapons out of the weapons contractors and
>> the congressmen, sure; try to do what you can. But any of that has meaning
>> only when it is in your hands and being used. Don’t put weight on anything
>> short of that.
>>
>> (I don’t mean, in this, btw, to downplay the true problem that the
>> current condition is a WWI-type trench warfare with drones, and the
>> prospect of extending that to a point of collapse is already so bad, that
>> it takes something truly awful for that not to be the worst. I don’t see
>> indication that any good-faith actor anywhere is denying that, though I
>> don’t think saying it, alone, makes one a good-faith actor.)
>>
>>
>> I had a conversation with a friend over the weekend who is a NASA program
>> manager, and who interpreted a recent directive they had received, to
>> discontinue the use of paper straws, and replace them with plastic straws,
>> as a kickback to some petroleum company that had bribed trump. Given that
>> this is a smart person I am talking to, the quaintness of that
>> interpretation took my breath away. It seems clear beyond daylight, to me,
>> that the images of turtles with straws in their noses, and seabirds dead of
>> them, were the breakthrough that the environmental groups finally got with
>> the public, to get some action to ban that specific plastic item as one of
>> the most insidiously dangerous and cruel. The point of the paper-straw ban
>> was the point of everything with these people. Most directly, it was an
>> intent to deliver a “defeat” to the environmental groups, focusing on the
>> image that had succeeded for them precisely because it is so awful to have
>> to see more of. But more generally, this is the core of meanness. It is a
>> rage, by those who are defiled in their nature, against the existence of
>> anything that isn’t defiled.
>>
>> This is again Hannah Arendt’s summary of the last-century European
>> political actors: that they didn’t understand the distinction between the
>> parties and the movements. The parties wanted to control the government,
>> whereas the movements wanted to destroy the government. Public commentary
>> on this drives me nuts, because it seems to exactly repeat this error.
>> People talk about the appointments of degraded morons to agency heads as
>> being about loyalty: take somebody who couldn’t earn anything in a world of
>> merit, and put him on a plush perch that he knows he will only retain as
>> long as he can continue to curry favor. But I believe that only to about a
>> 30% level as the motive. And it is an inward-facing motive; how to keep
>> various functionaries on a leash. There is an outward-directed motive, and
>> I think that is about 70% of the drive. These people are put there,
>> because he couldn’t find anybody worse. It is again the effort to eliminate
>> the notion of legitimacy from the concept of society people will adopt and
>> live within.
>>
>> The word I wanted to use for the latter, thinking over the weekend, was
>> “vesting”. It’s a bit of a bland word, but it wraps up several things that
>> otherwise I can’t encompass in one word. The cognitive concept of truth;
>> abstract notions such as justice; the society as an agreement underpinned
>> by legitimized institutions. What all these have in common is that people
>> accept restraint to uphold a prior commitment to these other things as
>> “higher” over the long run. And when the mob wants to destroy the state —
>> meaning, really to destroy that concept of society — it is this “higher”
>> that they can keep their attention fixed on, as all the other particular
>> targets (immigrants, academics, civil servants, black people, gay people,
>> etc.) get rotated in and out as opportunities arise.
>>
>> So anyway: if every dealing with trump turns out to be, over time, a loss
>> for Zelenskyy — the reality behind the literary Faustian Bargain — he may
>> not be worse off having the break occur earlier. I don’t know what it may
>> buy him to have humiliated t and v, by having the dignity to not accept
>> those terms of conversation, in terms of coalition-building with other
>> heads of state.
>>
>>
>> I do continue to wonder what China’s play in this will be. I imagine
>> they think they will have no trouble “managing” Russia into some kind of
>> continuing subordinate status, when it is alone with a gigantic land area
>> but a limited economy and population. If it were even just Russia
>> swallowing Ukraine, China might still think of that as an okay outcome. I
>> feel pretty sure they want the rare earths, in view of their relations with
>> Mongolia up to now, and the fact that the only thing protecting Taiwan is
>> that it holds the entire world’s highest technology as a trust, and
>> collapsing it would cause such a large global implosion that it would
>> destabilize China as well, for now. But they probably figure they can get
>> those from Russian control, where Russia couldn’t develop them internally
>> anyway. An actual coalition of Russia with the U.S., however, could become
>> more worrisome for China, even if the U.S. is undergoing a process of
>> self-degradation. So it is not inconceivable to me that China could want
>> some stalemate to go on a while longer, which limits the coordination of
>> the trumpers with other large actors as much as feasible. Another Faustian
>> bargain for Zelenskyy if it is offered. But maybe more predictable in the
>> short term.
>>
>> But there, too, I don’t know anything.
>>
>> Eric
>>
>>
>>
>> > On Mar 3, 2025, at 11:34, steve smith <sasmyth at swcp.com> wrote:
>> >
>> >
>> >> It's way too generous to say "Trump has a case". Trump and Vance's
>> "case" consists of "You should be grateful to us because we give you
>> money". I.e. suck up to me and I'll deign to give you more money.
>> > I don't think Trump or Vance have backed any significant support for
>> Ukraine. The US people through our elected representatives and tax
>> dollars *HAVE* supported Ukraine (albeit a little slowly an a little
>> anemically and a little timidly sometimes?). Zelensky has been
>> extravagantly and eloquently thankful to all of the above. Trump and Vance
>> were spoiling for an opportunity to try to humiliate Zelensky in front of
>> the cameras, so they contrived it.
>> >> Maybe someone makes the case you say is Trump's. But it's not Trump
>> making that case. If he sporadically vomits words that sound like that,
>> it's because they were put into his mouth by someone else. The question is
>> Who put them there? Putin? Elno? Thiel?
>> >
>> > The "raw earth" (sic Trump) deal was extortion. Whether Ukraine's
>> mineral resources could or should be mortgaged to secure the financial
>> support is one thing, but the idea that the point of the West supporting
>> Ukraine against the hyper-aggressive Putin-led Russia is about economics
>> completely misses the point. Zelensky is right to avoid "doing business
>> with" anyone who is not a clear staunch ally when in this situation.
>> >
>> > Trump & Allies are clearly "War Profiteers", a fine old tradition among
>> the industrialists and financiers of the "free world".
>> >
>> >
>> >>
>> >> On 3/2/25 7:42 PM, Pieter Steenekamp wrote:
>> >>> Just watched a new episode where two toddlers threw their toys out of
>> the cot.
>> >>>
>> >>> Zelensky makes a strong case — Putin is unreliable, having broken
>> numerous agreements in the past, so any peace deal would need ironclad
>> security guarantees. But lecturing Trump is hardly the way to secure a
>> favorable minerals trade agreement.
>> >>>
>> >>> Trump also has a valid case — the war is stagnating, there’s no
>> realistic military path to driving Russia out of Ukraine, and pursuing
>> peace makes sense. But losing your temper at an international press
>> conference is not the way to get there.
>> >>>
>> >>> At the end of the day, they’re all human, and it makes for great
>> real-life drama. I can't wait for the next episode!
>> >>>
>> >>
>> >>
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>> --
>>
>> ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
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>> +1 505 577 6482
>> Santa Fe, New Mexico USA
>>
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> .- .-.. .-.. / ..-. --- --- - . .-. ... / .- .-. . / .-- .-. --- -. --. /
> ... --- -- . / .- .-. . / ..- ... . ..-. ..- .-..
> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
> Fridays 9a-12p Friday St. Johns Cafe / Thursdays 9a-12p Zoom
> https://bit.ly/virtualfriam
> to (un)subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
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> archives: 5/2017 thru present
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> 1/2003 thru 6/2021 http://friam.383.s1.nabble.com/
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> .- .-.. .-.. / ..-. --- --- - . .-. ... / .- .-. . / .-- .-. --- -. --. /
> ... --- -- . / .- .-. . / ..- ... . ..-. ..- .-..
> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
> Fridays 9a-12p Friday St. Johns Cafe / Thursdays 9a-12p Zoom
> https://bit.ly/virtualfriam
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> archives: 5/2017 thru present
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> 1/2003 thru 6/2021 http://friam.383.s1.nabble.com/
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