[FRIAM] Dry Line Report

[Nicholas Thompson]

Let's start with the Storm Prediction Center's risk map.
[image: image.png]
Now, overlay the surface map for the same area.
[image: image.png]
That's a complex map.  DFW has a stationary cold front to the north, the
dry line to the west and a very juicy warm air mass to the south. I would
not like to be flying into DFW this afternoon.

Here is the 7 am skewT for DFW.  [image: image.png]

The EML is still there.  It has lost its nice triangular shape, but you can
see from the dewpoint line that it extends from 850 mb  up to 500 mb.  The
nose is still there but it seems to have developed a moustache and even
some lips.  The area where the blue line is to the right of the red, the
Convectively Available Potential Energy (CAPE) is substantial.

[image: image.png]
The jetstream is overhead but seems, if anything, ridgey with vorticity, if
anything negative. I guess that's why the forecasters arent going crazy.
We have a juicy airmass at  the surface, a dry unstable mass above, a
nearby coldfront to lift the column, a mild jetstream over head but no
obvious contribution to Vorticity, perhaps even some suppression.

The number of cards and letters received in response to these reports has
not been overwhelming.  (};-\]
Is this not a complexity list?  is weather not a complex phenomenon?  There
must be at least one other weather nerd on the list.  Or have you all
fallen prey to politics and vehicle maintenance?

Nick




-- 
Nicholas S. Thompson
Emeritus Professor of Psychology and Ethology
Clark University
nthompson at clarku.edu
https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson
-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://redfish.com/pipermail/friam_redfish.com/attachments/20250517/593e37b3/attachment-0001.html>
-------------- next part --------------
A non-text attachment was scrubbed...
Name: image.png
Type: image/png
Size: 56736 bytes
Desc: not available
URL: <http://redfish.com/pipermail/friam_redfish.com/attachments/20250517/593e37b3/attachment-0004.png>
-------------- next part --------------
A non-text attachment was scrubbed...
Name: image.png
Type: image/png
Size: 172611 bytes
Desc: not available
URL: <http://redfish.com/pipermail/friam_redfish.com/attachments/20250517/593e37b3/attachment-0005.png>
-------------- next part --------------
A non-text attachment was scrubbed...
Name: image.png
Type: image/png
Size: 466741 bytes
Desc: not available
URL: <http://redfish.com/pipermail/friam_redfish.com/attachments/20250517/593e37b3/attachment-0006.png>
-------------- next part --------------
A non-text attachment was scrubbed...
Name: image.png
Type: image/png
Size: 343869 bytes
Desc: not available
URL: <http://redfish.com/pipermail/friam_redfish.com/attachments/20250517/593e37b3/attachment-0007.png>