[FRIAM] Trump and Afrikaner Refugees

Thu May 22 04:04:44 EDT 2025

It was a tough day for Ramaphosa yesterday.
Donald Trump appears to have been influenced by far-right narratives about
widespread, politically motivated farm murders in South Africa,
particularly targeting Afrikaners. He seemed to accept that narrative,
which made things tricky.

Despite this, I’m proud of how the Ramaphosa team handled the situation.
I paid close attention to Trump's body language once the discussion moved
past the farm murder topic, and I believe he was receptive to the points
our team raised. They also held private talks after the public exchanges,
which will likely lead to more focused trade negotiations. Overall, I’m
feeling positive about the outcome. Sure, it could have gone better, but it
certainly wasn’t a disaster—nothing like the Trump/Zelensky fiasco.

Just a bit of context for my American friends:
The ANC (African National Congress) has governed South Africa since the
advent of democracy. However, in last year’s election, they lost their
majority for the first time, dropping below 50%. This led to the formation
of a Government of National Unity (GNU), though in practice it’s a
coalition between the ANC and the white-led Democratic Alliance (DA), led
by John Steenhuisen—who also participated in last night’s presentation.

While many Afrikaners (maybe most?) do support the DA, there's also strong
support among them for the right-wing Freedom Front Plus (FF+), which could
be described as South Africa’s version of MAGA. "Maga"-Afrikaners are maybe
the minority of Afrikaners and Afrikaners are a small minority of all in
South Africa, so there is no reasonable possibility of them gaining
significant votes. They also support the rule of law and the I don't expect
trouble from them. Those that influence Trump are even further right-wing
than the FF+.

In contrast, the DA draws support from a broad cross-section of South
African society, across all racial groups—including a significant number of
urban Black voters.

Looking ahead:
Recent polls show the DA with a slight lead. While it’s almost certain
they’ll not win an outright majority, they could emerge as the largest
party in the next election. If that happens, they may form a government,
and John Steenhuisen could become president. Maybe I'm day-reaming?

On Tue, 20 May 2025 at 21:08, steve smith <sasmyth at swcp.com> wrote:

> Pieter Steenekamp wrote:
>
> South Africa eagerly awaits President Cyril Ramaphosa’s upcoming meeting
> with U.S. President Donald Trump, a significant diplomatic breakthrough. An
> insightful article from Daily Maverick highlights how Ramaphosa achieved
> this feat through influential connections and a strategic approach that
> resonated with Trump.
> The article explains that Ramaphosa’s success is a major diplomatic
> victory, overcoming months of intense and damaging criticism from Trump.
> Traditional diplomatic efforts had failed, with Washington largely ignoring
> South Africa’s outreach. Despite persistent attempts by South African
> government, diplomatic, and business delegations, access to Trump remained
> blocked.
> On Capitol Hill, sources noted that South Africa underestimated the depth
> of hostility. Even allies sympathetic to South Africa’s anti-apartheid
> history were cautious about aligning with a nation facing unprecedented
> scrutiny from Trump. The article points out that South Africa endured more
> targeted executive orders and coordinated attacks than even U.S.
> adversaries like Iran, Cuba, and China. Tensions had been brewing before
> Trump’s election, with discussions of potential sanctions already underway.
> Source:
> https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2025-05-19-ramaphosas-trump-meeting-is-a-diplomatic-coup/
>
>
> I had no idea how much of the "refugee" story had a backstory of Trump's
> (typical) *bully first, negotiate later* style.
>
> Thanks for the DM link...
>
> I do always enjoy local media perspectives on faraway places... something
> you used to only encounter when you visited or maybe someone visited you
> and brought a newspaper (or more rarely a recording of local radio).
>
>
> https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2025-05-19-the-other-side-of-the-afrikaner-refugee-coin-americans-who-live-work-love-in-south-africa/
>
> There were numerous references in this one article alone which exposed me
> to my own mis-assumptions.  I was aware of the BRICS alignment but did not
> realize that Zuid-Afrika has taken a strong political position against
> Israel's actions (genocide) against Palestine, for example.
>
> I haven't done the research but I'd guess there is one or more
> "opposition" news outlets there which offer contrasting opinions.
>
>
>
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