[FRIAM] Fwd: The coming AI crash-worse than the Dot Com stock collapse?

[Jon Zingale]

I mostly agree with Marcus' sentiment. The dot com analogy may be apt, but
it also smells too easy an analog. I find the K-shaped AI adoption to be
bizarre. Personally, I do not believe LLMs, nor any particular
architecture, to be the be-all-end-all. I suspect we will see
a transition away from throwing money at developing the most general form
and a move toward more idiosyncratic instantiations. For instance, I
continue to think that Deepmind did meaningful work going the RL path with
AlphaGo/Atari games and it has yet to come to my attention what happens
when Transformers attempt to replicate these successes. Almost every LLM I
have met is really really bad at go. This said, AI in their current form,
and from this perspective, has been here for a decade. Some have adopted it
and use it to surprising effect, others treat LLMs as nothing more than a
robust database querying language. What people do with it and how they
perceive it will undoubtedly have an impact. In the meantime, I am excited
to see what happens as programmers learn to use formal type theories as
pidgins and LLMs become more amenable to compositionality.
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