[FRIAM] Fwd: The coming AI crash-worse than the Dot Com stock collapse?

[glen]

That's the point. Some of us line our nests with robust things like straw. Others line theirs with fantasies peddled by grifters and then expect the rest of us to share our nests when theirs collapse. We will *definitely* bail out the capitalists again ... and again ... and again, even after/while they['re] deport[ing] us, abusing us, killing us, sending us to kill foreigners, stealing our water to run their data centers, etc.

We are the gift that keeps on giving.

On 11/17/25 9:17 AM, Marcus Daniels wrote:
> I remember where I was when I saw Torvalds’ first Linux release.   I started downloading pretty much immediately and looking for a PC to sacrifice.  It was hardly capitalist hype.
> 
> *From: *Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com> on behalf of glen <gepropella at gmail.com>
> *Date: *Monday, November 17, 2025 at 8:54 AM
> *To: *friam at redfish.com <friam at redfish.com>
> *Subject: *Re: [FRIAM] Fwd: The coming AI crash-worse than the Dot Com stock collapse?
> 
> Exactly. That's Chris' basic argument. Even his point about fscking Twitter. To argue that it's "running just as well as it did" seems a bit discordant. But at some altitude, he's right. It's just as much of a toxic wasteland as it was before. Every time it crosses my gaze, I wonder why people still use it ... or bluesky, or reddit, or <arbitrary-tag>.
> 
> My experiments with Cline have just about ended. I've decided to avoid it. It works great with Claude (and some others), but not with gpt-oss or codestral. Both of those work fine if *I* manage the prompting. Chris also mentions linux, which I've been using as my daily driver since ~1995 (?) ... IDK, maybe I was mostly using ultrix & minix in '95. But sporadically, as with the Windows 11 update breaking recovery, all the dorks get all riled up and talk about linux finally being ready for the desktop. [sigh]
> 
> The fact is that we're no smarter than rats or birds who'll fill our nests with whatever stupid little shiny thing the capitalists bother to hype.
> 
> On 11/17/25 8:21 AM, Marcus Daniels wrote:
>> The first example that comes to mind are malls.  Malls aren't needed now so many of them are closing.
>> Some people see something bad about that.   I see something good about that:  Ruts get erased and new opportunities arise.    Power gets redistributed.
>> We're between cycles of exploitation and exploration, and there's some adaptation that is required.
>> 
>> -----Original Message-----
>> From: Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com> On Behalf Of glen
>> Sent: Monday, November 17, 2025 8:02 AM
>> To: friam at redfish.com
>> Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Fwd: The coming AI crash-worse than the Dot Com stock collapse?
>> 
>> But Chris' argument isn't really about AI. Chris is as guilty of preemptive registration as the others. Short-term markets distort everything. The task is to free up the terms coercively bound by the grifters and marketeers. Once the terms are unbound, we can discover which formalisms fit and which don't.
>> 
>> If we're charitable, Chris is right that *something* is amiss. The disagreement is about *what* is amiss. Same as it Ever Was.
>> 
>> On 11/17/25 7:45 AM, Marcus Daniels wrote:
>>> But what ARE these investments right now?   It seems to me they are well established companies:  Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, and Google.  NVIDIA has existed and will exist should AI revenue dry up, just like it outlasted Ethereum mining.
>>>
>>> The new players aren’t yet public companies.   OpenAI has a longer path to profitability, but Anthropic (technical users) is already making good progress @ $7B.   AI has already penetrated education and will likely spread more.  People will become dependent on it like they are dependent on cars.
>>>
>>> *From: *Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com> on behalf of Prof David West <profwest at fastmail.fm>
>>> *Date: *Monday, November 17, 2025 at 5:14 AM
>>> *To: *friam at redfish.com <friam at redfish.com>
>>> *Subject: *Re: [FRIAM] Fwd: The coming AI crash-worse than the Dot Com stock collapse?
>>>
>>> Marcus and Jon are not incorrect. I do see a problem that they do not, the fact that the vast majority of users/adopters of AI are dramatically less technologically compentent than either of these gentlemen. The manager that is positive that AI will eliminate most if not all of his human employees, the student using an LLM to "cheat," the social media addicts taken with the latest AI fad bots, etc. etc. almost certainly will become disillusioned and turn away from AI.
>>>
>>> Perhaps more importantly, all the capitalists who see immediate—not long term—return on investment are not going to remain invested. Lot's of other peoples money will be lost as a byproduct.
>>>
>>> The market of Jon Marcuses is not large enough to sustain all the current investment. Maybe one large AI company will survive (ala Amazon that lost tons of money for a long long time).
>>>
>>> davew
>>>
>>> On Sun, Nov 16, 2025, at 3:51 PM, Jon Zingale wrote:
>>>
>>>      I mostly agree with Marcus' sentiment. The dot com analogy may be apt, but it also smells too easy an analog. I find the K-shaped AI adoption to be bizarre. Personally, I do not believe LLMs, nor any particular architecture, to be the be-all-end-all. I suspect we will see a transition away from throwing money at developing the most general form and a move toward more idiosyncratic instantiations. For instance, I continue to think that Deepmind did meaningful work going the RL path with AlphaGo/Atari games and it has yet to come to my attention what happens when Transformers attempt to replicate these successes. Almost every LLM I have met is really really bad at go. This said, AI in their current form, and from this perspective, has been here for a decade. Some have adopted it and use it to surprising effect, others treat LLMs as nothing more than a robust database querying language. What people do with it and how they perceive it will undoubtedly have an impact. In the
>>>      meantime, I am excited to see what happens as programmers learn to use formal type theories as pidgins and LLMs become more amenable to compositionality.
>>


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