[FRIAM] Fwd: The coming AI crash-worse than the Dot Com stock collapse?
Steve Smith
sasmyth at swcp.com
Mon Nov 17 14:58:44 EST 2025
synthetic modulators of the feedback loops of a socio-cultural
metabolism of morbid obesity?
GLP1: a new mono-myth suitable for (firstworld) recovery (metabolic
reset) from a life of junk-news/info consumption and other poor
collective life choices?
Does such lead to teleonomic healing or teleonomic capture? This is the
never-ending debate between rePubs and Dems, between
hyper-disciplinarian dad and indulgent mom?
On 11/17/25 12:41 pm, Marcus Daniels wrote:
>
> Eli Lilly for GLP 1s?
>
> *From:*Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com> *On Behalf Of *Steve Smith
> *Sent:* Monday, November 17, 2025 10:41 AM
> *To:* friam at redfish.com
> *Subject:* Re: [FRIAM] Fwd: The coming AI crash-worse than the Dot Com
> stock collapse?
>
> I don't even know if I will send my response to this thread, I've come
> to delete most of my "usual" offerings without sending, some without
> finishing, others without starting. Some kind of entropy-minimization
> strategy on "y'all's" side of my Markov Blanket?
>
> Lots of rich stuff here. I don't think I disagree with any sentiment
> here (can they ALL be compatible?). Tom's original (implied)
> question is probably as much about "should those of us with fat ETF
> portfolios switch their mix from high-performing AI-fueled to some
> other place with better risk/reward ratios?" as it is about "is there
> even a 'there there' in the AI cascade of new affordances and
> competencies being offered (hyped) by 'the market'. But maybe they
> are fundamentally the same question in this highly human-conditioned
> manifold of intersubjective reality we inhabit together?
>
> Obligatory anecdote: when a moved to my current property (2000), A
> huge russian olive (50' tall, 3'diameter trunk, broad reaching
> branches) hosted a huge magpie nest in one of the forking horizontal
> branches... maybe 6-8' long made of branches from all over the
> property (area) and many other elements. It had a half-dozen babies
> in it when I first came to review the property but by the time we
> moved in, they had fledged and the nest was fully abandoned (only for
> the season?) Within the year we took it upon ourselves to remove the
> nest and found the myriad bits of interesting detritus they had
> gathered. The structure of the nest seemed fully rhymed and reasoned
> in spite of being opportunistic to the branch/twig/grass/fur/??? at
> hand and wabi sabi in the extreme, but the strange bright bits of
> yarn, string, fabric, bottle caps, broken glass, etc cetera, were much
> more arcane/occult-to-me. But nevertheless alliterated, rhymed and
> likely reasoned. As did our own slow picking-apart of the
> structure with the help of Jays, Packrats, and the weather which had
> it's own uses for these "objects of desire"?
>
> Within 3 years West Nile flared up the Rio Grande, killing (most
> notably, but not exclusively) Magpies. Even now, 20 years later, the
> populations have barely begun to recover in a small way, probably
> migrated back down from the Chama/Rio-Grande headwaters and environs?
> This anecdote could tangent into the (very few) people I know of who
> contracted (and one died) of West Nile during that time, and the
> cascade of influences/effects that had on the lives of the people I
> know, but except for a vague "where did all the Magpies go?" I hardly
> registered the *devastating* effect it had on the Magpies (and likely
> many other corvids/birds in the region?). Or tangent to the "Rabbit
> Hemorhaggic Fever Pandemic" which coincided with human's COVID 19
> which devastated the Jack and Cotton populations here (and many other
> regions globally)...
>
> This is probably an allegory or parable or something. Re:Cautionary
> Tales starring NRA wankers - I did just (re) watch two Charlton Heston
> classics from my "coming of age" era: "Soylent Green" and "Planet of
> the Apes" but was spared (paywalls) from "Omega Man". I didn't
> tangent to "Ben Hur" nor "Moses" for different reasons, but to quote
> Glen (who might have been quoting David Byrne?):
>
> "Same as it ever was!"
>
> On 11/17/25 10:57 am, glen wrote:
>
> That's the point. Some of us line our nests with robust things
> like straw. Others line theirs with fantasies peddled by grifters
> and then expect the rest of us to share our nests when theirs
> collapse. We will *definitely* bail out the capitalists again ...
> and again ... and again, even after/while they['re] deport[ing]
> us, abusing us, killing us, sending us to kill foreigners,
> stealing our water to run their data centers, etc.
>
> We are the gift that keeps on giving.
>
> On 11/17/25 9:17 AM, Marcus Daniels wrote:
>
> I remember where I was when I saw Torvalds’ first Linux
> release. I started downloading pretty much immediately and
> looking for a PC to sacrifice. It was hardly capitalist hype.
>
> *From: *Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com>
> <mailto:friam-bounces at redfish.com> on behalf of glen
> <gepropella at gmail.com> <mailto:gepropella at gmail.com>
> *Date: *Monday, November 17, 2025 at 8:54 AM
> *To: *friam at redfish.com <friam at redfish.com>
> <mailto:friam at redfish.com>
> *Subject: *Re: [FRIAM] Fwd: The coming AI crash-worse than the
> Dot Com stock collapse?
>
> Exactly. That's Chris' basic argument. Even his point about
> fscking Twitter. To argue that it's "running just as well as
> it did" seems a bit discordant. But at some altitude, he's
> right. It's just as much of a toxic wasteland as it was
> before. Every time it crosses my gaze, I wonder why people
> still use it ... or bluesky, or reddit, or <arbitrary-tag>.
>
> My experiments with Cline have just about ended. I've decided
> to avoid it. It works great with Claude (and some others), but
> not with gpt-oss or codestral. Both of those work fine if *I*
> manage the prompting. Chris also mentions linux, which I've
> been using as my daily driver since ~1995 (?) ... IDK, maybe I
> was mostly using ultrix & minix in '95. But sporadically, as
> with the Windows 11 update breaking recovery, all the dorks
> get all riled up and talk about linux finally being ready for
> the desktop. [sigh]
>
> The fact is that we're no smarter than rats or birds who'll
> fill our nests with whatever stupid little shiny thing the
> capitalists bother to hype.
>
> On 11/17/25 8:21 AM, Marcus Daniels wrote:
>
> The first example that comes to mind are malls. Malls
> aren't needed now so many of them are closing.
> Some people see something bad about that. I see
> something good about that: Ruts get erased and new
> opportunities arise. Power gets redistributed.
> We're between cycles of exploitation and exploration, and
> there's some adaptation that is required.
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com>
> <mailto:friam-bounces at redfish.com> On Behalf Of glen
> Sent: Monday, November 17, 2025 8:02 AM
> To: friam at redfish.com
> Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Fwd: The coming AI crash-worse than
> the Dot Com stock collapse?
>
> But Chris' argument isn't really about AI. Chris is as
> guilty of preemptive registration as the others.
> Short-term markets distort everything. The task is to free
> up the terms coercively bound by the grifters and
> marketeers. Once the terms are unbound, we can discover
> which formalisms fit and which don't.
>
> If we're charitable, Chris is right that *something* is
> amiss. The disagreement is about *what* is amiss. Same as
> it Ever Was.
>
> On 11/17/25 7:45 AM, Marcus Daniels wrote:
>
> But what ARE these investments right now? It seems
> to me they are well established companies: Microsoft,
> Amazon, Meta, and Google. NVIDIA has existed and will
> exist should AI revenue dry up, just like it outlasted
> Ethereum mining.
>
> The new players aren’t yet public companies. OpenAI
> has a longer path to profitability, but Anthropic
> (technical users) is already making good progress @
> $7B. AI has already penetrated education and will
> likely spread more. People will become dependent on
> it like they are dependent on cars.
>
> *From: *Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com>
> <mailto:friam-bounces at redfish.com> on behalf of Prof
> David West <profwest at fastmail.fm>
> <mailto:profwest at fastmail.fm>
> *Date: *Monday, November 17, 2025 at 5:14 AM
> *To: *friam at redfish.com <friam at redfish.com>
> <mailto:friam at redfish.com>
> *Subject: *Re: [FRIAM] Fwd: The coming AI crash-worse
> than the Dot Com stock collapse?
>
> Marcus and Jon are not incorrect. I do see a problem
> that they do not, the fact that the vast majority of
> users/adopters of AI are dramatically less
> technologically compentent than either of these
> gentlemen. The manager that is positive that AI will
> eliminate most if not all of his human employees, the
> student using an LLM to "cheat," the social media
> addicts taken with the latest AI fad bots, etc. etc.
> almost certainly will become disillusioned and turn
> away from AI.
>
> Perhaps more importantly, all the capitalists who see
> immediate—not long term—return on investment are not
> going to remain invested. Lot's of other peoples money
> will be lost as a byproduct.
>
> The market of Jon Marcuses is not large enough to
> sustain all the current investment. Maybe one large AI
> company will survive (ala Amazon that lost tons of
> money for a long long time).
>
> davew
>
> On Sun, Nov 16, 2025, at 3:51 PM, Jon Zingale wrote:
>
> I mostly agree with Marcus' sentiment. The dot
> com analogy may be apt, but it also smells too easy an
> analog. I find the K-shaped AI adoption to be bizarre.
> Personally, I do not believe LLMs, nor any particular
> architecture, to be the be-all-end-all. I suspect we
> will see a transition away from throwing money at
> developing the most general form and a move toward
> more idiosyncratic instantiations. For instance, I
> continue to think that Deepmind did meaningful work
> going the RL path with AlphaGo/Atari games and it has
> yet to come to my attention what happens when
> Transformers attempt to replicate these successes.
> Almost every LLM I have met is really really bad at
> go. This said, AI in their current form, and from this
> perspective, has been here for a decade. Some have
> adopted it and use it to surprising effect, others
> treat LLMs as nothing more than a robust database
> querying language. What people do with it and how they
> perceive it will undoubtedly have an impact. In the
> meantime, I am excited to see what happens as
> programmers learn to use formal type theories as
> pidgins and LLMs become more amenable to
> compositionality.
>
>
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