[FRIAM] What does it mean to say that it will probably rain tomorrow?

[Eric Charles]

Ooooh, ooooh, I know what I think:

Verbal Behavior, the Weather Man, and the Fundamental Lie of Professional
Poker
<http://fixingpsychology.blogspot.com/2012/04/verbal-behavior-weather-man-and.html>




-----------
Eric P. Charles, Ph.D.
Supervisory Survey Statistician
U.S. Marine Corps
<echarles at american.edu>

On Sat, Feb 11, 2017 at 12:49 PM, Nick Thompson <nickthompson at earthlink.net>
wrote:

> Dear all,
>
>
>
> We had an interesting conversation in the Friday meeting of the local
> congregation concerning the question, “What does it actually mean to say
> that there is a 50 percent chance of rain in Santa Fe tomorrow?”  Exactly
> what operations would you have to go through to discover if that claim was
> appropriate or not?
>
>
>
> I took the position that whether it actually rained tomorrow had very
> little to do with validating the claim.
>
>
>
> I am wondering what those of you in the diaspora thought.
>
>
>
> Nick
>
>
>
> Nicholas S. Thompson
>
> Emeritus Professor of Psychology and Biology
>
> Clark University
>
> http://home.earthlink.net/~nickthompson/naturaldesigns/
>
>
>
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