[FRIAM] What does it mean to say that it will probably rain tomorrow?

[Nick Thompson]

Hi, Eric 

 

Your blog ends by saying that we predict probabilities, not events.  It would seem a further de-mystification of the idea of probability to say that we predict relative frequencies of future events, not probabilities.  I.e., a probability is just (≡) a prediction concerning an unknown relative frequency.  The probability is not what we predict.  It is the prediction. 

 

By the way, that blog must have been a great teaching tool, when you were still teaching.  Much better than office hours because it forces students to formulate questions in writing.  

 

Nick 

 

Nicholas S. Thompson

Emeritus Professor of Psychology and Biology

Clark University

 <http://home.earthlink.net/~nickthompson/naturaldesigns/> http://home.earthlink.net/~nickthompson/naturaldesigns/

 

From: Friam [mailto:friam-bounces at redfish.com] On Behalf Of Eric Charles
Sent: Saturday, February 11, 2017 10:57 AM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <friam at redfish.com>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] What does it mean to say that it will probably rain tomorrow?

 

Ooooh, ooooh, I know what I think: 


Verbal Behavior, the Weather Man, and the Fundamental Lie of Professional Poker <http://fixingpsychology.blogspot.com/2012/04/verbal-behavior-weather-man-and.html%20> 










-----------
Eric P. Charles, Ph.D.
Supervisory Survey Statistician

U.S. Marine Corps

 

On Sat, Feb 11, 2017 at 12:49 PM, Nick Thompson <nickthompson at earthlink.net <mailto:nickthompson at earthlink.net> > wrote:

Dear all, 

 

We had an interesting conversation in the Friday meeting of the local congregation concerning the question, “What does it actually mean to say that there is a 50 percent chance of rain in Santa Fe tomorrow?”  Exactly what operations would you have to go through to discover if that claim was appropriate or not?  

 

I took the position that whether it actually rained tomorrow had very little to do with validating the claim. 

 

I am wondering what those of you in the diaspora thought. 

 

Nick 

 

Nicholas S. Thompson

Emeritus Professor of Psychology and Biology

Clark University

http://home.earthlink.net/~nickthompson/naturaldesigns/

 


============================================================
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove

 

-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://redfish.com/pipermail/friam_redfish.com/attachments/20170211/7739d025/attachment-0002.html>